Santa Cruz Sentinel from Santa Cruz, California • Page 52

WSJ 4 Sunday, September 10, 2000 SANTA SENTINEL THE WALL STREET JOURNAL OTlff. ENCORE By Glenn Ruffenach PLAYING THE NET By Steve Frank Retiring Early Isn't Looking as Attractive Working Longer vISI After bottomin8 out ln 1988' Perain' tage of Americans age 55 to 64 still In jL. Jf the labor force Is climbing 63 3 56.3 1978 1988 1996 1998 2008 'Projected Source: Bureau of labor Statistics lV News organizations mutual-fund companies and varius stock exchanges all have thir own definitions, and there oftei are significant differences among tlem. Things can get even more compcated with sector indexes, which pvport to track particular sectors buican in fact end up tracking very diffeent kinds of companies. The Interictive Week Net Index, for exanple-whlch supposedly tracks Intemit stocks-includes among Its conponents 7-Eleven one of th nation's largest convenience-sore chains.

Interactive Week says ills seeking to highlight companies tlat are "key drivers of the development of the Internet." But while 7-Eleen does have a Web presence, it's na exactly widely regarded as a leadingntemet company. Dow Jones Cc, which publishes The Wall Streetloumal, has Its own series of sector irdexes, formulated by the Joumal'ssditors. Its Internet Index doesn't iiclude any bricks-and-mortar retalers. That said, If you're itill looking for a Web site that tracks te performance of various sectors, ant of the companies it considers a par of them, you might want to check ait the Website of Smart-Money magazine. Thoigh it is owned jointly by Hearst Comnunications and Dow Jones, SmartMorsy.com includes its own sector (efinitions and it has two features to rack them.

first, named Sector Traiker, allows you to follow the performance of 120 narrow "Industry groups," In 10 broader "sectors." The iltealso offers a list of companies within tliose groups, along with their sttck performances. In addition, SmarMoney features a tool called Map the Market, which offers a graphical depiction of which sectors, and whia companies within them, are poweing the market up and down at art time. propel along with double-bladed paddles. Some are sleek, brightly colored molded plastic; others are fabricated from fiberglass or su-perllght Kevlar fibers set in epoxy. Still others are crafted from do-it-yourself kits with sheets of African mahogany.

Whatever the pedigree, the trim vessels are being embraced by growing numbers of the 50-plus set. Four summers ago, for instance, Walter Chadwick, owner of Waquoit Kayaks in East Falmouth, had a rental fleet of 10 boats and 150 customers. This year, despite rainy weather, "I have a fleet of 30 boats and 300 renters," he says. About two-thirds are seniors, he estimates. Cape Cod's largest kayak dealer is the Goose Hummock Shop on Town Cove in Orleans.

Kenneth Glidden, the outdoor-center manager, recalls that "in 1990 we couldn't give one away. Now our sales are up to 1,500 a year. Fully two-thirds of the buyers are over 55." Most observers credit the burst of popularity to the television coverage the sport gets with adventure channels and ads showing kayakers cruising Alaskan fjords, diving over waterfalls and doing Eskimo rolls, turning themselves upright after capsizing in rapids. But so-called recreational kayaking (as opposed to its white-water cousin) with its more serene nature is what captures most people's fancy. "There is a spirituality to it," says Carrie Dobson, age 58, a retired tax accountant and a member of the Cape Cod chapter of the Appalachian Mountain Club.

"It's something you can do on your own. You paddle very quietly sharing the habitat of swans and ducks. You are not a threat to them. You become part of the environment." Q. Last month I purchased shares of Agilent Technologies and the price has gone up and down since then.

Are Its future prospects Fol-som, Calif. A in Agilent Technolo- gies-the test and measurement company spun off from Hewlett-Packard earlier this year-have yo-yoed around lately, thanks to an unusual series of events related to the company's quarterly earnings report. On July 20, Agilent warned that a shortage of some components, combined with weakness In its chemicals analysis and health-care-equlpment businesses, would cause earnings for the fiscal third quarter, ended July 31 to be between 18 cents and 22 cents a share; analysts had been expecting 33 cents. Agilent's shares promptly lost more than a third of their value. But just a few weeks later, when Agilent reported Its actual results, it said earnings came in at 34 cents.

What happened? According to the company, a late delivery of semiconductor components allowed It to finish building some test equipment It previously hadn't expected to complete. What's more, the company said the plunge in its stock price actually boosted earnings by four cents a share, by reducing the cost of so-called stock-appreciation rights that the company uses to compensate employees working in countries where stock options aren't legal. While the somewhat bizarre flip-flop does spotlight apparent weaknesses In Agilent's Inventory management systems-as well as Its dependence on components suppliers-the company's core business does seem to be exhibiting strong growth, based on healthy demand for its products. a A reader wants to know: What are the standards for determining which companies fall Into particular sectors? And Is there a Web site that lists sectors and their components? Aa Unfortunately, there really is no single accepted standard for categorizing companies Into sectors or Industry groups, or even for determining what's a sector or group. spreadsheet will show that, in the end, you'll have $560,441.

The problem, though, is that the calculation has no way of indicating the likelihood of attaining that amount. Now, let's try Monte Carlo. Based upon 10,000 trials, it turns out there's only a 48.6 chance you'll actually make it to $560,441. There is, however, a 60 chance you'll accumulate a pot of money at least equal to $232,527. And a slim chance you'll have more than $53 million.

Knowing these probabilities today could help you make better investment decisions about tomorrow. Already, some Web sites are pro-viding-gratis-relatively simple Monte Carlo functions that graphically depict the probability an investor will meet expected retirement needs, based upon a host of income and investment data. One to play with: www.financialengines.com, begun by William Sharpe, a Nobel Prize winner in economics and a Stanford business school professor. Older Americans are having a love affair with kayaks. That's right: the narrow little boats with the snug cockpits that you Steve Frank covers the Inernet for The Wall Street Journal art CNBC.

Send him your questions trout Internet Investing by e-matto steve.frankwsj.com, or ti Steve Frank, WSJ Fletcher Fort Lee, N.J 07024. Please include your city amstate. Americans' Infatuation with the Idea of "early retirement" might be cooling. And with good reason. After a century in which workers retired at a progressively younger age, the trend appears to be reversing itself.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the percentage of men and women age 55 to 64 still in the labor force had fallen to 54.6 in This Is the first of a monthly column offering financial and lifestyle advice for those over 55. 1988-but had risen to 59.3 by 1998. Moreover, the figure is expected to jump to 63.3 by 2008. (See chart.) Economists offer several explanations for the change: the elimination of mandatory retirement policies, changes in Social Security rules (that no longer penalize individuals for getting a paycheck in later life), and the shift to a service economy. More striking, though, if you remain in the work force you could be doing yourself a favor.

According to a new study by the National Academy on an Aging Society, almost half (48) of adults 60 or older who are still working characterize their health as very good to excellent. By contrast, only 26 of the 60-plus population not in the work force see their health in the same light. Moreover, 60-plus workers have family incomes two-thirds greater than retirees of the same age and are twice as likely to believe they will be better off financially in the next two years. In short, a daily dose of work-instead of golf-could be enriching. "Work provides a place where people get growth and satisfaction," says Sandra Timmermann, a geronotologist and director of the Mature Market Institute, a training and education arm of MetLife Inc.

And it doesn't hurt, she adds, that a paycheck keeps rolling in. "People used to scale down" in retirement, she explains. "Now we want to maintain our lifestyles." backing, fer i isrn- if 1 oi7 An old math technique Is providing some new-and better-answers to the question: Will my money last as long as I do In retirement? It's called "Monte Carlo" simulation. Named for the city of gaming casinos in Monaco (and born out of the Manhattan Project in World War II), it's a method of studying thousands of random events to generate a relatively specific result-in this case, the probability that your money will endure alongside you, given a multitude of questions. (Will Inflation go up, down or sideways? Will the stock market sink, soar or muddle along? Will your portfolio be 90 stocks or 60?) "Probability" is the key word.

Other techniques can tell you "on average" whether your nest egg is big enough. But "you need to base your spending and savings behavior on expectations more solid than says Mary Malgoire, who runs Family Firm a financial-planning firm in Bethesda, Md. Assume, for instance, that you have $100,000 to invest in stocks for 20 years, and you expect to generate a 9 average annual real rate of return. Any financial calculator or igt i On the news side, our community site provides current local, state and national news. We also feature entertainment, classifieds, sports and weather.

Glenn Ruffenach, a reporter and editor at The Wall Street Journal, is editor of Encore, the Journal's quarterly guide to life after 55. Mr. Ruffenach can be reached at encorewsJ.com. i PQ Ft I frfl 50 6 Want to add some music to your lite? Choose your favorite style from 70 different kinds through our Everstreamurer. When you need directions, MapQuest will show you the way.

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