Collyer's Eye from Chicago, Illinois • 2

EYE Saturday August 18 1923 2 TEMPORARY MARKET RALLY DUEK oil merger PLAN TO FIGHT BIG DEVELOPMENTS IN BUCKET SHOP SCANDAL NEAR STANDARD OIL THE TAPE Comment on the World of Finance Export (Continued from Page 1 Col 1) lower prices for a majority of stocks than have already been recorded The drift is still unmistakably toward lower prices The bear market is still with us The outlook for the moment suggests strongly the promise of an early technical recovery a movement that is overdue and one that is bound to come when the present large short interest starts to take its profits This is particularly true of the Industrial end of the market where in many issues the short account has been tremendously expanded in recent weeks When the shorts begrin to cover they are bound to experience temporarily rising prices Just as soon however as they cease to buy for covering purposes the movement of recovery must sub-side for there is lacking the outside i BY BOURSE EW YORK Aug Big developments are believed to be imminent In Wall bucket-shop scandal Out of the Fuller and McGee case are expected to come revelations that will cause a tremendous sensation in the financial community Whispers are already going the rounds naming seme of the supposedly reputable folk scandal-gossip of the worst type All this is extremely bad for the good people here for it hurts Wall Street severely It would seem to me that all of these developments have had an important adverse effect upon the stock market and no doubt accelerated the declining movement CURB FEATURES BY BOURSE RADIO CORPORA I There has been some real accumulation of these issues apparently in anticipation of the approach of the fall and winter season when the radio industry expects the biggest boom yet This company is controlled by the General Electric Enough said tfr STANDARD OF The big gasoline war in the Northwest has been particularly bearish on this stock The decline this week may be directly traced to the general cutting of gasoline prices I think that Indiana Standard looks very attractive for the long pull PEERLESS TRUCK Report for the six months ended June 30 shows net income of $955995 after charges and taxes equivalent to $4 05 a share earned on the 231471 shares of capital stock of $50 par value The company has no bank debt and shows current assets of $8095623 against current liabilities of $2607689 the best and strongest roads in the United States have declined not because of anything inherently wrong with the properties but because of the fact that public confidence In all kinds of stocks has been shaken for the time being Without the support of buying orders the only thing stocks can do is to decline and that is what has been happening in the rail list Shares of roads like New York Central! Illinois Central Norfolk Western Chesapeake Ohio Union Pacific Southern Pacific Pennsylvania Atchison and Lehigh Valley merit attention by the person with spare funds to invest On the other hand the industrial shares as a whole group do not look so good In conclusion let me state again that a good recovery is overdue The fall will probably bring a further sharp setback in values have caused heavy damage to the fruiting crop The reports now coming in from all parts of the Belt foreshadow a sensationally bullish Bureau report on Aug 31 and hence I think it would be advisable to buy December or March cotton on all setbacks between now and the date that the Bureau report is issued If the Bureau condition is as low as I think it will be the indicated yield for the crop is likely I think to show a loss of a million bales as compared with the last Government estimate of 11-500000 bales A bombshell of this sort is likely to cause a speculative explosion that will be heard all over the cotton world I SPECULATIVE EXPLOSION THREATENS COTTON mm BY TEE SOUTHERNER EW ORLEANS Aug Immediately following the publication In this department last week that a big bull market in cotton was developing and that 25 cents for October deliveries was predicted the cotton market fairly boomed and new high levels for the season were successively established on Saturday of last week and Monday of this week Buying of a more general character than has been seen in months past featured the speculative activity on the bull side of the market and the outside public appeared to be taking hold with old-time vigor Fear Some Politicians Have Played Grain Market Short (FTOCKtT WORTH WATCHING BY BOURSE EW YORK Aug I hear rumors of an Impending big oil merger involving the consolidation of several of the big and small American Independent concerns The proposed consolidation would create a $500000000 oil concern one that would stand among the front rank in the industry and one that would be strong enough to do battle with the Standard Oil combination The Mutual Oil Company has been mentioned as the nucleus of such a proposed merger and some of the other companies talked of as possibilities in the consolidation are Transcontinental Oil Arkansas Natural Gas the Carpathian Oil Company of Roumania the Mid-Colombia Development Company and others There is no doubt that the trend in the oil Industry is toward consolidation The scramble for business is getting too keen for the smaller companies In such a gasoline war as is now being waged in all parts of the country the smaller concerns are completely at the liberty of the big companies The latter make the prices and the former must get in line or quit Moreover the big companies can afford the lower prices whereas the small companies stand the gaff for any length of time If the present situation in the oil Industry continues for long we will see a lot of oil companies for sale GETS PROMISING BABY Saratoga Aug 17 Will Woodward is the owner of the full brother to St James which brought $10000 at the sale of yearlings last week It develops that Davis the successful bidder bought the horse for the account of Woodward farmers from knowing just how badly off they are and how bad the future prospects are He said farmers were being deceived into believing that after all there will be plenty of demand for their wheat this year Mr Brookhart spoke with all the bitterness of a prophet whose favorite has just run a bad last In fact since the advance in wheat has met with such tremendous outpourings of spleen on the part of some the Impression prevails In certain quarters that a number of political statesmen must have been playing the market short and thereby sustained some sharp losses No other theory can account for their present attitude according to some critics The market has had all the symptoms of a short interest that has been badly mangled of late Here is the real situation The politicians vastly overrated the size of the crop in the United States and Canada In the United States the crop will be nearly 100 million bushels short of last year The carryover last year with a bad export market was less than 100000000 bushels there is much less wheat than last year and a much greater prospective demand The United States can consume most of the wheat raised this year In other words the croakers are a year late It Is just about time for the market to get a whole lot better EXPECT BIG UPSET IN HOPEFUL STAKES (Continued from Page 1 Col 5) sters in leaving the barrier according to the dockers and alertness In getting into action quickly Is highly essential in winning juvenile sprints especially when the fields are large The Rancocas youngsters also have been conspicuous by their continued absence from the stakes so far this meeting John Madden who rarely comes to Saratoga without showing a first class colt has a number of Hopeful candidates and it is a question which is the best Revenue Agent the Sir Martin colt out of Tory Maid winner of his first start and beaten two necks by Resolution and Bontaud in an allowance race a few davs later over a heavy track must be well thought of to induce G'ffnrd Cochran to buy the colt for $25000 This is second notable purchase bv Mr Cochran this summer his first investment beinsr Sun Flag for $25000 at the Kilmer sale It will be recalled that last summer Cochran bought Goshawk from Whitney for $50000 after the colt won the Saratoga Special for the express purpose of winning the Hopeful but second place was the best he could get when Dunlin bred by John Madden got up in time to take the race from him by three-quarters of a length Coehran took second money with Sun Flag in the Saratoga Special last week and with two such formidable eondidates as Sun Flag and Revenue Agent he will be well fortified for a triumph in this year Hopeful currently Is a darned good speculation for the man who has patience CHICAGO PNEUMATIC There has been some insistent selling of these shares of out-of-town origin apparently for Chicago account The company has been adversely affected bv the slackening of activity in the building trades Not much can therefore be expected of these shares until conditions change RUBBER The common stock has been under fire again The action of this and other rubber and tire is sues recalls to mind my bearish as sertions of earlier In the year when I said the tire shares were due for a steady slump Another case where we had the right line of dope AMERICAN CAN I understand that certain brokers in the Street have advised switching from Steel common to American Can common Looks like bad advice to yours truly Can common does not stand one-two-three with Steel common as a speculative investment GENERAL The inter ests who formerly sponsored the market gyrations of this swift moving 5iiiiiiiiiiiiiimntHiiiimiiimiiiimiiiiiiiiiiinmiiinnnimnniiniiniiimini issue have apparently realized at last i and It Is natural therefore that the markets should be waiting for i i news from abroad with the deepest I of Interest As regards the domes- I situation there appears to be 1 I not the slightest hit of doubt any- i where but that President Coolidge i 1 will carry on successfully as the I i new chief executive The 1 i stock market right at this moment i is a dull affair and mainly pro- i fessional Many leading operators i have left the Street In disgust and I will play golf until September con- i fident In the belief that little will i hapnen of importance in the stock i market My own judgment has i been that August would see a mod- i erate rally In speculative security i prices but the new complications 1 in Bnrope as reflected in the dip- i lomatlc exchanges between France i and Great Britain have Injected a I new element of uncertainty that 1 I may Interrupt for the moment the I normal flow of the forces that go i to control speculative activity Personally I feel much better dls- I posed toward the market than I i did a fortnight ago but I have i not by any means or manner i turned bullish We are still in ai i bear market forget that buying support for the long account that Is so sorely needed to stabilize the general list While there is no doubt that the stock list presents many really cheap issues on the basis of prevailing quotations this does not mean that prices will not go lower in the long run General business throughout the country has undergone a great slackening Unless there is pronounced improvement in the fall we shall see a big falling off in corporate earnings a development that would be bound to reflect in a lowering of market quotations The most attractive stocks in the whole market today in my judgment comprise the railroad list where there has been a steady movement of re cession in keeping with the general trend of values Shares of some of One of the first results of this wave of speculative buying was heavy short covering by some of the larger short interests which have been fighting the upward trend of values Jesse Livermore again figured in the limelight New York telegrams stating that the Wall Street plunger who had sold cotton off after the big advance on the Bureau report three weeks ago had been forced to buy back thousands of bales of cotton at a loss It conservatively estimated I MARKET DOPE SHEET I BY BOURSE THE feeling Is somewhat better i this week The Street Is more i hopeful of the outlook al- i 1 though right at this moment there i i is rising nervousness over the i i Anglo-French situation with re i spect to the Ruhr and the repara- i tions settlement A serious break i between London and Paris as ap i pears likely at this stage might i I have far-reaching consequences i 1 that recent ventures on the bear side cost him the neat little sum of a quarter of a million dollars New Orleans and Chicago interests together with some large Texas speculators who have been buying on drouth reports from that state are credited with having made an old-fashioned on the bull side at the expense of the Wall Street bears When the market jumped up around 24 cents for October deliveries In the early part of this week profit-taking on a large scale was indulged in There was also some hedge selling at the higher levels and some scattered short selling all of which created a reactionary tendency that finally carried prices off pretty sharply from the top This improved the technical position of the market which was becoming somewhat top-heavy and Is paving the way for an advance into new high ground before very long The next upward swing is likely to carry prices up around 25 cents for October deliveries Early next week we will begin to get the private reports forecasting the Bureau report on Aug 31 Judging by the way reports as to crop conditions are now coming in severe deterioration in the condition of the cotton crop has taken place not only In Texas and Oklahoma where drouth has prevailed but also In the Central Belt and in the Atlantics where the army worm and the boll weevil both oil shares of necessity must be classed as speculative and some of them ex tremelv so A New York City You picked two hie-hly speculative stocks in Keystone Tire and Consolidated Textile The latter is much the better of the two But both are in uncertain ground as is reflected plainly in their market nositlons It will be a long wait be fore you can expect to get out even these issues If you can afford to takr your loss it might be a good thing do Did you huv these shares or margin or outright? AUTOS AT DADE FARK Evansville Ind Aug 17 Miles Mattingly of Owensboro Ky has leased Dade Park for auto races on Labor Day So far nothing has developed regarding a running race meeting here this fall ANALYSIS OF BY AURELIUS HE radicals who have their political lightning rods up for 1924 continue to preach Tissues of truth are woven Into a fantastic fabric of falsehood The smallest modicum of truth is deemed sufficient leaven for a parasang of misstatements It has been self-evident for more than a year that the impoverished nations of Europe were going to be doubtful customers for our surplus grain doubtful buyers and still more doubtful payers which was vastly more important But after denying that there was anything wrong with the market last year and attributing the price deflation of wheat to the whole tribe last Spring became metamorphosed Into pseudo-economists First they started chiding the farmers for raising crops that were out of proportion to the needs of the world Then when the Capper-Tinch-er bill proved itself to be a legislative nostrum they blamed the Board of Trade charging a "conspiracy" to let the market alone and leave it to its fate This week Senator Brookhart of Iowa advanced a new theory Since the wheat price after sinking about 3 cents below the low levels of the two preceding years and then rallying sharply upset some of the former predictions Brookhart came forward at Dixon 111 with another novel idea He accused the Metropolitan newspapers of conspiring to keep the BUY WHEAT CORN AND OATS ON WEAK SPOTS (Continued from Page 1 Col 5) market is bare of buyers prices will sink but will quickly respond to every bullish factor that may develop from now on And there will be plenty of such bullish factors There is an unwieldy short interest in September and December corn which will prevent any extended break fr some months to come Crop prospects are fine but the country used up most of last big crop Cash corn is 10 cents over September and December Is 25 cents discount under the cash article It is silly to sell short under such a handicap and when shorts try to cover It will be the same story of having to bid up the price At these levels all grains are an attractive purchase Late in the Fall there will be another bear period but everything bearish has been over-exploited The trader who buvs wheat corn and oats on these breaks make money Those who try to follow bulges or declines will Impoverish themselves The market will likely continue to be a two-sided affair for the next seven months BY BOURSE CORN FriO DUCTS Indications are that the directors will probably postpone until next December the declaration of an extra dividend of 1 xk per cent on the common The last extra disbursement was paid In July and amounted to 1 per cent The stock has been under moderate pressure lately but all things considered is giving a good account of itself NATIONAL CLOAK 8c Unless I am greatly mistaken and I th'nk I am the outlook for the payment of dividends on the common shares of the company is excellent The business volume of the company is breaking all previous records ana under the capable management of President Rosenbaum there is no reason why the company should not do well AMERICAN LOCOMOTIVE The common stock now on an annual dividend basis of $6 a share Is yielding stockholders who held the orignal issue and exchanged it for the new stock just twice as much as they were receiving early this year The present new rate is equivalent to $12 a share on the old stock The fundamental strength of American Locomotive is shown by the fact that during the years since the war the company has earned an annual average of $1145 a share on the old stock or $975 a share on the new stock HOUSTON Oil A new effort'' is being made to put activ'ty and strength into this wild speculative is sue Houston is actually showing real earnings this does not warrant the position the stock is selling for I have never been able to understand why these shares should tell at the present level when there is little prospect of dividends NATIONAL ENAMELING Latest reports Indicate the company earned in the first six months the equivalent of $6 a share on the common This made an annual rate of $12 a share WTLLYS-OVERLAND Net earnings for the first six months of 1923 were $7932385 of which $2 000060 was earned In the month of June This company whleh two years ago was in the hands of the bankers has apnarentlv worked out of its difficulties The preferred shares have greatly improved their position SKELLY OIL Tn the judgment of unprejudiced observers this issue has by virtue of Its recent decline gotten down to a level somewhere nearer Its real value The possibility of dividends Is extremely remote under existing conditions I wonder if the pool Interests In Skelly ever found it possible to unload CLUETT PEABODY GO Profits for the first half of the current year were $2 253611 against $1407674 for the corresponding period of 1922 SOUTHERN RAILWAY I have at freauent Intervals referred to the promising position of Southern Railway Figures so far aval1 able tbls year indicate that if the system's net operating Income for the second of 1923 comes nn to the proportion of the shown bv the ten year average the road report a balance of around $12 a ahare for the common stock My opinion Is that a stock selling aronnd $3 on which $12 a share Is being earned 6 that the public has lost its Interest in Asphalt When one considers the record of the stock during the last five years It Is not surprising that the conservative and wise trader should leave Asphalt strictly alone AMERICAN The company is paying $5 a share in dividends on the common and earning $10 a share CHICAGO MIWAUKEE ST PAUL understand that the Rockefeller Interests who for a considerable time were dominant In the road have disposed of most of their holdings In many quarters here in the East St Paul is no longer considered among the WESTINGHOUSE ELE CTRIC I feel this Is a good stock to buy and for the long pull It Is a splendid company and tremendously promising ontlook ERTE These securities have been buoyant lately on rumors of buying for control by the Van Swerlng-ens of Cleveland These rumors have been denied The road is showing unusually good earnings which Is probably the real factor behind the improvement In Erie securities BOURSE ANALYZES I YOUR SECURITIES' iiiiHiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiimiiiiiiiiiiiiiimiiiiiiiiMiiiiiiiiiiiiin A New Orleans We are not an authority on the honesty and In tegrity of brokerage houses and therefore it is not possible for us to answer your inquiry As to Perfection Tire it looks as If it will be a long time before this company will pay dividends so do not buy it on such a prospect It is extremely speculative Mrs St Louis The companies you mention are all small con cerns without any market to speak of for their securities In the East Therefore It is Impossible to obtain any definite information concerning them My own judgment is that the securities of these companies could hardly be considered in the investment class All The Foreman National Bank The Foreman Trust and Savings Bank La Salle and Washington Sts Combined Capital Surplus and Undivided Profits exceed $6000000 WRITE BOURSE FOR FREE YOUR STOCKS AND BONDS.