The News and Observer from Raleigh, North Carolina • 10

10A The News and Observer Raleigh Sunday March 6 1988 10A The News and Observer Ralei Sunday March 198z3 azismagnimati Campaign '88 Candidates just can't whistle Dixie to win in South "I think probably most of us hoped it would promote a moderate candidate and we don't know if that's worked yet or not" Bob Slagle Texas Democratic chairman In Lexington Ky Ms Kirkpatrick described the Senate Republican leader as "kind of tough" which would engender few arguments in Washington Then she paused and added "And he's kind of sweet" Dole winced and blushed Down in the flat fields of Sumter County Ga where the sun is still gentle in early spring the last Democratic president is visited by the men who would follow him Gephardt dropped by the home of Jimmy Carter last week Dukakis will stop in Monday Carter looked out on the mob of reporters on his front lawn last week and smiled "Looks like old times in Plains" he said "Do you miss this Mr President?" a reporter called out "No I don't miss it much" he said noting that he had just returned from a ski trip "I think some of the candidates are envious of me rather than the other way around" pay more attention to the South but he acknowledges that the verdict is far less clear on its probable principal aim "I think probably most of us hoped it would promote a moderate candidate and we don't know if that's worked yet or not" Slagle said It is axiomatic that Super Tuesday could end up a textbook example of the law of unintended consequences Jackson one of the more liberal candidates in the race has built the most solid support in the South He has recently taken great delight in noting that fact He missed few opportunities to needle former Gov Charles Robb of Virginia a leading voice among Southern Democrats who are trying to push the party to more centrist positions Sen Robert Dole R-Kan was campaigning in the South with Jeanne Kirkpatrick the former chief United States delegate to the United Nations comfortable fit with the Northeastern transplants of the retirement communities They openly admire the condo organizers "They are basically taking the politics of the '40s and '50s and making it work for the '80s and '90s" said Paul Pezzella a Dukakis staff member At Tabernacle Baptist Church in Atlanta the Rev Quincy Carswell is ready to preach "My membership was beginning to wonder when I would start turning on the heat for Reverend Jesse 11 Jackson from the pulpit" he said Now the time has come "Jesse is the man" Carswell said looking toward his Sunday services "He's got to do what he's doing now Jesse has come to the kingdom for just such a time as this" And so it will go in the South today From the earliest days of Jackson's first presidential campaign he has found his most faithful support within the black lites Gephardt sat in a hotel room in Kansas City this week and took questions from television stations in Yakima Wash Washington NC Casper Wyo West Palm Beach Fla Washington Spokane Wash and Cheyenne Wyo He arrived in those communities via K-2 a satellite 22300 miles above the equator It is a technology ideal for Super Tuesday the campaigns say Compared with the leisurely pancake breakfasts and coffees of Iowa and New Hampshire it seems chilly politics Slagle the Texas Democratic chairman says that Super Tuesday has forced the candidates to Poll finds 7 I of Southerners favor trade limits Ur'''''''''''''' '77 4' :4 sl i 4 1 2: 4 '''''44'' I I I '4'4' 4k 't" 7770- sfoto i i 1 I ti i 'I It' '0J or fesr vo-- rt 4 4 1 At Vi- i I "4r i3O4t 1: it 2A 8 14''''717f' ''kAk 4f ti: tot 4 4'14 -J 1 1 -41 A I 1::1:4:1 i 4i 0 to rkti polt 7s 4 li: :7: ::44: f'ee7C Ne4 7 i v''Y' vii --4- e4: 41 flk! ifitil ''''94''C' '''-6 i :441 fifl lk417: T114 9 'S 10 4 A 1 1mkt A In 41361- If er- ki 2 0 5 15 '7'7' 1' 4VP wastistoolie- 4 411 440101'' ''''r1 ri A I -'-'i N4-- ttir 4 1k- it 1 1 tti t'' '''')1Si 4 '''r7i14' ti ki 1 I It 4: 14 it 'Is' 4' i '77 f''5 1' 114 ti ti) 4 I 5:1: ii' KIWIetivolit i The Auociatd The Associated Press Supporters of Vice President George Bush were out in force at South lush racks up big in SC tole runs 1 i 1 3 i i 1 4 4 1 1 1 4 1 4 A 11 4 II tti i 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 I ti I It I Continued Iron page IA enormously popular Florida Democrat The campaign of Gov Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts countered with a commercial starring Thomas "Tip" O'Neill Jr 75 the former speaker of the House who hailed Dukakis' commitment to Social Security and Medicare The Gephardt campaign dispatched Loreen Gephardt the candidate's 80-year-o1d mother into the condos this weekend The Dukakis campaign then called and raised with Euterpe Dukakis the governor's 84-year-old mother and Harry Ellis Dickson his 79-year-old father-in-law Today 'rrinchitella president of the Deerfield Beach Democratic Club will be working the 14 pools of his condo complex for Dukakis The Dukakis campaign has been courting the condo vote for months His supporters found a Gallup Pan Dukakis Bush lead in Texas Fla PRINCETON NJ As Democratic candidates make their final push for Super Tuesday votes the outcome in the two largest states Florida and Texas might hinge on the ability of front-runner Michael Dukakis to solidify the large proportion of his support that is "soft" In Florida Dukakis leads with 30 percent followed by Richard A Gephardt (15 percent) and the Rev Jesse Jackson (14 percent) Albert Gore Jr who saved his financial resources for a major Super Tuesday drive lags behind with 6 percent in a distant cluster with Gary Hart (7 percent) and Paul Simon (4 percent) Significantly a quarter of Florida Democrats (24 percent) remain undecided The Dukakis margin in Texas is slimmer 24 percent to 19 percent for Jackson 17 percent for Gephardt 11 percent for Hart and Gore and 2 percent for Simon Sixteen percent are undecided The spongy quality of the Dukakis lead is evident in the lack of solid commitment by most of his supporters While 8 percent in Florida and 7 percent in Texas say they strongly back him the corresponding percentages indicating tentative support are 22 percent and 17 percent At the same time only Jackson has at least as much strong support Last-minute switches in allegiance and the direction taken by undecided voters could dramatically alter the final standings Republicans heavily favor George Bush over his nearest rival Robert Dole Bush's advantage 59 percent to 20 percent in Texas and 51 percent to 24 percent in Florida is buoyed by President Reagan's robust popularity in both states Marion "Pat" Robertson campaigning in the evangelical heartland garners 9 percent in Florida and 12 percent in Texas The questions asked: "I will read you the names of the Democratic (Republican) presidential candidates After I read all the names please tell me which one you would like to see nominated as the Democratic (Republican) Party's candidate for president Do you support (candidate) strongly or only moderately?" FLORIDA Total Strong support support Dukakis 30 8 Gephardt 15 2 Jackson 14 8 Hart 7 3 Gore 6 1 Simon 4 (x) Other undecided 24 (x) Less than 1 percent Total Strong support support Bush 51 28 Dole 24 6 Robertson 9 7 Kemp 6 2 Other undecided 10 TEXAS Total Strong Support support Dukakis 24 Jackson 19 11 Gephardt 17 5 Hart 11 4 Gore 11 3 Simon 2 (c) paler undecided 16 00 Less than 1 percent Total Strong Support support Bush 59 31 Dole 20 8 Robertson 12 5 hemp 4 2 Other undecided 5 (xl The Florida results ore bosed on telephone Interviews conducted Feb 2628 with 489 rms Ivrea voters who Plan tO VW In the DernocrollO primary ond 396 who talon to vote In the Republi on orimorv oat of a 'wrote of 1204 reolstered voters stotewde The 1 pion results are based On telephone tritervews with 443 Democratic and 496 RPOLtbil Or IMOrY voter 1 Out Of sample of 1201 rpomered voters statewide church where his quest is often placed squarely in the context of the struggle for black empowerment He is keenly aware of this Today he will preach from the pulpit of Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta mother church of the civil rights movement the church of which the Rev Martin Luther King Jr was once pastor Once the candidates stumbled over one another in tiny towns Now the presidential campaign is scattered The architects of Super Tuesday created such a vast territory that it tests the limits of airport-hopping campaigns Hence the heavy use of satel The Associated Press Marion "Pat" Robertson gives a thumbs up to his SC supporters despite a third-place finish a second- or third-place finish in South Carolina would amount to a victory His showing will serve as a test of his supporters' loyalty elsewhere in the South Robertson faced a new problem in the past two weeks that of increased media attention on what his aides called his "funny that Soviet missiles are in Cuba that his Christian Broadcasting Network staff knew the whereabouts of US hostages in Lebanon and that Bush aides may have leaked information about the Jimmy Swaggart sex scandal Robertson said Saturday night that "distortions" of the Swaggart comments hurt him badly in South Carolina "It was the Bush and Swaggart thing that knocked me from 19 points in the polls to 10 in one day" he said Robertson targeted South Carolina on the assumption that the exceptionally high percentage of born-again Christians including charismatics and Pentecostals would boost his bid The ABC News exit polls indicated that the With results in from all 23 county caucuses Gore won 795 of the state convention delegates Dukakis 77 and Missouri Rep Richard A Gephardt 68 However in the popular vote at county caucuses Dukakis narrowly won with 766 votes followed by Gore 747 Gephardt 685 Rev Jesse Jackson 439 Sen Paul Simon 108 uncommitted 191 and Gary Hart 32 The straw vote does not affect selection of national convention delegates Gephardt gets three national 7 4 T-" '-1 4 1st c4 ci1 '1 PI' is '1 i' Ali i li: (' 1 rf 4 ir' 4''''' i' -f' 'J'-' 4 1 i i 4 -lfs: ''k'-' 4 P1 4 1 4 i commercials to hammer home his advocacy of tough retaliatory measures against countries that restrict US exports The Atlanta newspaper's poll sample was not large enough to document whether Gephardt's supporters think differently on trade issues than do say those of Gov Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts One of the poll's findings might mitigate against concluding that Gephardt's trade stance could turn the primaries in his favor Asked to name the most serious economic problem facing the country fewer voters mentioned the foreign trade deficit than cited the federal budget deficit and unemployment On the other hand the latest New York Times-CBS News Poll taken last Sunday through Wednesday as Gephardt's television commercials emphasizing trade restrictions were just beginning to air in the South showed that among Democratic voters who had not seen his commercials he was viewed favorably by 18 percent and unfavorably by 14 percent However among those who said they had seen the commercials he was viewed favorably by 41 percent and unfavorably by only 12 percent Michael Abrams a Florida state legislator who is a strong Dukakis supporter said Gephardt's "message is so strong We don't have an equivalent message that has the same power That's the one problem we have" Dukakis and the other Democratic candidates argue strenuously against limits on imports saying they could damage the economy and do serious harm to US agriculture and other indus tries that rely on exports In a debate in Atlanta on Feb 27 Gary Hart called the Gephardt trade proposal "the worst idea put forward in this campaign" to stir voters for Tuesday's Democratic presidential primary The Rev Tyrone Crider of Columbus Ohio likened Super Tuesday to the Super Bowl "If Doug Williams can quarterback the Super Bowl" Crider said of the Washington Redskins' star "Jesse Jackson can quarterback Super Tuesday" Crider ministerial coordinator of the National Jesse Jackson for President Committee joined about 200 people for a 212-hour rally at the Saint Paul AME Church The gathering offered a glimpse of the Jackson campaign's efforts with organizers passing brass collection plates and encouraging the audience to use checks instead of cash if possible so the necessary contribution information would be available for matching federal funds Speakers took the names and telephone numbers of those who could provide transportation for voters and precinct help They even asked the Jackson faithful to pray for good weather to boost turnout Crider the keynote speaker described Jackson as a son of the New South and took aim at other presidential challengers swinging through the South these days "Most of these candidates are coming as if they have an American Express card Do you know me?" Crider said as perspiration beaded his face "The answer is no You ought to ask them where they were when we were fighting for civil rights and then you ought to vote for the candidate who was there New York Times News Service ATLANTA A large majority of Southerners favor legislation limiting imports although they realize that such measures might cause other countries to retaliate against US products according to a poll released Saturday The findings are significant because in a presidential campaign that has otherwise turned mostly on organization and images trade policy is the one issue that has divided the candidates of both parties The poll conducted by the Roper Organization for The Atlanta Journal and Constitution showed that 70 percent of Southern voters supported "federal legislation restricting imports" while only 24 percent were opposed About two-thirds Of the 2000 registered voters interviewed by telephone Feb 19-27 said trade restrictions would cause higher prices for imports and would save jobs in US industries whose products compete with imports The poll's margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points At the same time a majority of voters said they thought import restrictions would result in higher prices on similar products made in the United States retaliatory measures by other countries that would hamper US exports and a loss of jobs in export-dependent US businesses The proportion of voters who hold these views varies little whether they are Democrats or Republicans rich or poor black or white college graduates or not or rural or urban residents The overwhelming support for trade restrictions could benefit the candidates who advocate such measures: Rep Richard A Gephardt of Missouri among the Democrats and Sen Robert Dole of Kansas and Marion "Pat" Robertson among the Republicans Gephardt in particular has used his speeches and television Lcilictfi the Continued from page IA national candidates Sen Anthony Rand D-Cumberland a candidate for lieutenant governor was making political points by giving flowers to some of the women at a Democratic Women's breakfast at the Brownstone Hotel The day was full of Republican bashing some of it in song The J-J Singers entertained the breakfast crowd and took a shot at Republican Gov James Martin with a song to the tune of "Puff the Magic Dragon" "Martin won't be hard to beat 'cause he'll be out of town" the women sang "He sails in the Bahamas and tours around Japan he walks the streets of Hollywood sports a California tan" Early in the afternoon two major Democratic candidates for lieutenant governor squared off in a forum sponsored by the NC Association of Teen Democrats Rand and former state Rep Parks Helms of Charlotte participated but state Sen Harold Hardison of Deep Run sent a surrogate campaign worker John Rainey Helms couldn't resist poking some fun at his absent opponent "John you do a whole lot better than Senator Hardison" Helms said to Rainey during his closing remarks Jackson supporters rally Showing political savvy and civil rights fervor supporters of the Rev Jesse Jackson gathered at a Raleigh church Saturday Continued from page IA Saturday night that Kemp would go on through Super Tuesday Campaigning in Missouri Dole insisted that he and not Bush was the most electable Republican in November and said Bush would "Mondale-ize" the GOP a reference to 1984 Democratic nominee Walter Mondale who lost 49 of 50 states to President Reagan in the general election Dole attributed Bush's success to Reagan's popularity "But some of us were standing by Reagan and some of us were carrying the ball for Reagan" he said "That's the difference" The big Bush victory came largely from voters who based their decision on his resume and on expectations that he offered the best chances for continued economic good times according to ABC News surveys of voters leaving the polls Nearly seven of 10 partisans said they supported him mainly because "he is experienced in government" For Robertson the results belied his prediction of victory and major tenets of his campaign: that thousands of Democrats would vote Republican for him and that a state with such a religious base would deliver a victory About 8 percent of Saturday's GOP primary voters said they were Democrats according to exit polling Those crossover voters split 36 to 32 percent for Bush over Dole while Robertson received 27 percent The Bush strength among those crossovers was telling: Dole has maintained repeatedly that he is the GOP candidate who can appeal most strongly to Democrats Until recently Robertson had pushed all his chips into the center of the table for the South Carolina primary declaring "If I lose this one I'm in trouble I brought in my boats landed the soldiers and burned the boats" When poll after poll showed him in trouble Robertson began a fullscale retreat contending that Carolina polling places victory second born-again vote was a key to victory in South Carolina but not for Robertson Half of all GOP voters in South Carolina describe themselves as born-again Christians and among that group Bush got 27 percent of the vote and Robertson got 35 percent Among self-described evangelicals Bush virtually matched Robertson 30 percent to 34 percent Robertson's strong moral and social agenda clearly attracted Republicans seeking change for the country Nearly half 47 percent of his voters said they supported him primarily because "he would bring changes the country needs" Analysts had predicted that South Carolina Republicans would divide by income and class with "country club" Republicans voting for Bush and mart" Republicans going for Robertson The exit polls suggested that was only partially right Bush won big among voters at every income level: 43 percent of those earning less than $20000 a year voted for him while 52 percent of those with household incomes of $40000 or more supported him Robertson's support came mainly from middle-income voters Dole attracted a disproportionately larger share of upscale Republicans Though all the GOP candidates pulled out all the stops in South Carolina Bush held an advantage from the start With minor exceptions the entire party establishment backed him and the state was the political training ground for his national campaign manager Lee Atwater who spent 10 days in the state directing the operation Dole while acknowledging that his campaign was down scoffed at the suggestion that a bad showing in South Carolina and in the other states Tuesday would destroy his candidacy "We've been knocked down before" he said during a campaign stop in Missouri "We are not going to get knocked out" in Wyoming delegates and two are uncommitted Other candidates winning state convention delegates were Jack son with 38 Simon with 10 and Hart with 1 None of them received enough support to qualify for any national delegates Wyoming Republicans were to choose 12 of the state's 18 GOP delegates in a time-consuming process Late Saturday Dole had four Bush three and two were uncommitted Gore Dukakis winners CHEYENNE Wyo (AP) Tennessee Sen Albert Gore Jr and Massachusetts Gov Michael Dukakis split the prize Saturday in Wyoming's Democratic presidential caucuses Wyoming Republicans divided their delegates between Vice President George Bush and Sen Robert Dole R-Kan Both Democrats claimed victory Gore of the state convention delegates Dukakis of the straw vote They both won four national convention delegates Ma.