The Daily Breeze du lieu suivant : Torrance, California • 113

I The Daily Breeze Sun Nov 24 1985 D1 Shoppers will have to rush after Thanksgiving But high consumer debt levels dampen big retailers' hopes By Jerry Hirsch Financial writer Shoppers are likely to find stores more crowded than ever this holiday season even though retailers are predicting only a modest sales increase That is because Thanksgiving the traditional start of the selling season falls on Thursday Nov 28 this year six days later than in 1984 that will effect the spending patterns it effect how many dollars are spent" says Bill Dombrowski spokesman for Los Angeles-based Carter Hawley Hale Inc Carter Hawley Hale which owns The Broadway and several other department store chains is one of many retailers planning longer store hours to make up for the loss of time Industry experts expect a zero to 10 percent increase in business to be compressed into the short but crucial year-end selling season Most retailers characterize their expectations for the busy sales period as cautiously optimistic is pretty says Donald Kaufman chairman of Carson-based Boston Stores Inc a chain of 19 small department stores in the Western United States However retailers have been worried by poor sales figures in recent months and the record rise in consumer debt Americans took on a record $106 billion more in consumer debt than they paid off in September the most recent period for which figures are available That left the ratio of consumer debt to disposable income at a high 192 percent Retailers are also worried that companies that see strong sales immediately following Thanksgiving will panic and set off a discounting war similar to the one last year that disabled many profits Finally retailers are concerned that no high-profile products such as Cabbage Patch dolls have appeared on the market this year to heighten consumer interest in shopping am looking for a 6 to 7 percent growth in retail sales for the quarter and closer to a 10 percent increase for some retailers like Carter Hawley Hale and the May Co" says David Jackson a retail analyst with Morgan Olmstead Kennedy Gardner Inc a Los Angeles brokerage Dombrowski says department stores should lead other retailers with a 4 percent to 7 percent gain Dombrowski also says shape of rather than the shorter selling season is what will guide sales Lcrdomiti Staff photographer Cheri David arranges Christmas wares at her country furnishings store in The Courtyard shopping complex in Rolling Hills Estates small percentage in sales will be a rough he says Judith Hofer president and chief executive of Los Angeles-based May Co California says have planned for a more difficult season Sales should be close to the same (as last year) or have a slight By comparison Chicago-based Montgomery Ward Si Co is projecting a 4 percent to 5 percent sales growth in December over the same period a year ago Moreover John McGivern a senior vice president for the sixth-largest retailer says he is not concerned about the record consumer debt levels Shoppers D3 we see those consumer debt levels come down we see customers spending a lot of he says Jackson says smaller chains and independent stores can look for sales increases of between 3 percent and 4 percent No matter how modest estimates run considerably higher than what many others are forecasting The president of one major Southern California department store chain says the total increase in retail sales for the quarter could be a slim 2 percent to 3 percent Kaufman of Boston Stores also expects very Specialty food gift packs lead shopper charge By Jerry Hirsch Financial writer While the big retailers are approaching the holiday selling season with some trepidation independent and smaller stores eagerly await the annual buying binge are looking for a 20 percent (sales) says Irv Gronsky president of Bristol Farms Inc a supermarket and specialty food store in Rolling Hills Estates The sale of gourmet-food gift packs should lead the jump Gronsky says year the response to our gift basket items was so tremendous that we rented a 4000-square-foot space in Rolling Hills to make the gift food baskets this Gronsky says will have a tremendous The food gift market has been growing for several years even at stores not considered food retailers says Steve Harder manager of REI Co-op an outdoor equipment and clothing store in Carson have been a growing line for us for the last three years mustards chocolates we will be sold out before Dec Harder says One of the most popular gifts REI sells is one-pound packages of smoked salmon: keep them in Harder says Other more traditional favorites include ski clothing and flannel bedsheets Harder says he expects this season to be at least as good as last year and he adds did very well last Cheri David owner of a country furniture and gift store that bears her name at the Courtyard Mall in Rolling Hills Estates says her sales are already higher than last year Specialty D2 if 1 I Ken Arsenin Jill Robbins at Christmas Guild Jack Lardomha Staff photographer Carol Levinsky displays perfumes for Evanne Weisser at Bullocks Wilshire Takeover fund offers line on Wall Street's hottest game sold the average gam was 8 3 percent That gam was recorded in an average 141 days (less than five months) On an annualized basis the rate of growth is equivalent to 21V percent strategy is to get in and out of a stock as quickly as possible try to capture the middle portion of the stock move where you have a ready-made liquid he says For example in Philip acquisition of General Foods at $120 a share the leak came wit shares in the high 60s Shrager though recommended GF Aug 6 at 74'v and sold it Sept 11 at 90 The stock was held well under the 141-day average but as Shrager explains not lookirg for the last penny The name of the game is profits and the faster the Asked to choose his six favonte takeover candidates which could also include corporate restructuring and leveraged buyouts Shrager cites Burroughs National Presto Industries CBS Pan Am Corp Quotron Systems and araer Lambert How The Takeover Stock Fund will fare however is anybody's guess Shrager's view has a good shot at In general he says can buy $1 worth of corporate assets in the stock market at 70 cents And as long as you can do he says takeover game goes on" money on them because by the time he hears the story the stock of the company supposedly being acquired is already way up Shrager shares this view but he insists there are realistic ways to minimize the risk In this context he cites the strategy of The Weekly Takeover Target Forecast which will essentially mirror the way the takeover fund will operate The focus of the newsletter is in the following areas: Undervalued stocks often selling near their lows situations where been some definitive action like an outsider taking a position in a shares understated assets such as real estate and timberland and a host of takeover targets in the event a fair number fail to work out Obviously the rumor mill provides a lot of takeover stories But Shrager goes well beyond that an avid reader focusing on trade journals investment newsletters and brokerage research The results tell the story The letter has caught a slew of takeovers and leveraged buyouts including ABC General Foods Beatrice Cos National Can Scott Fetzer Cessna Aircraft the Colonial Penn Group and Cluett Peabody Since it started the letter has recommended 199 stocks 150 of which it subsequently suggested selling On average Shrager says six of 19 go up in price And of the 150 that have been bought and With corporate takeovers running at a blistering pace and continuing as the biggest money-making game on Wall Street it had to happen a mutual fund dealing strictly in merger acquisition and leveraged buyout candidates The new fund aptly called The Takeover Stock Fund expects to make its debut in January be a no-load fund (no sales charge) and its minimum investment will be $1000 Surprisingly the outfit bringing it out is not an investment biggie but a virtual unknown Quality Services Co of Santa Barbara a privately held specialist in the merger and acquisition game And its record of sniffing out potential takeovers pretty impressive Quality Services is a 23-year-old company that buys and sells small businesses does evaluation analyses of a worth for corporate clients and publishes books and a couple of newsletters on mergers and acquisitions One newsletter is for the business professional the other is for the public The Weekly Takeover Target Forecast which was started in October 1984 is the newsletter geared to the public The letter runs $250 a year has about 1000 subscribers and presently averages about three stock recommendations a week all candidates for takeovers leveraged buyouts or corporate restructuring The stock selections are made by Carl Shrager 43 who heads the publishing operation and also run the new takeover fund The target To raise $40 million Whether that goal is achieved remains to be seen but the timing for the debut come at a more propitious moment Sparked by lower interest rates plenty of undervalued assets and a less rigorous regulatory environment regarding big mergers the takeover game shows every sign of continued growth In the first 10 months of this year for example there have been 2528 merger and acquisition deals totaling $94 8 billion according to Mergers and Acquisitions magazine Clearly a takeover fund is for the risk-taker The average investor makes little if any money on takeover stories and more often than not loses 1 Mm idMinhi 41ml finufti mutn hi fim Ifni il ANiilfiilWii friifci 1 lE.