The Tyler Courier-Times from Tyler, Texas • 41

1 I BUSINESS jler Cnurier-imeEtltgraph Sunday Many Americans Prospering Page 4 Section 4 SEPTEMBER 6, 1992 mm tte; KLTV Still Leading The Market, But KETK Gaining Ground Business Scene With Tony Floyd 11; 1j emmmewammum POWER lfcu TirTTTrnrrrrrr TYLEnEAST TEIIAS TV RATINGS Station. Rating Share 12 KLTV Channel 7 Tyler (ABC) 11 20 KLTVKTRE Lufkin (ABC), combined 10 KETK Channel 56 Tyler (NBC) KETK KLSB Nacogdoches (NBC), combined 15 KFXK Channel 51 Longview (FOX) KTBS Channel 3 Shreveport (ABC) Tyler Construction Boom Continues Tyler's building frenzy moved forward in August, with tne combined value of citywide projects climbing to more than $7 million, raising the year-to-date total to more than $56.3 million. That compares with $9.9 million for August 1991 and $37.1 million through the first eight months of last year. Again, residential construction led the way in August, with 24 projects going up with combined value exceeding $3.2 million. That put the average value of a new home in Tyler at $135,625 per unit, which is higher than the state median price of about $110,000.

In August 1991, the city of Tyler issued permits for six new homes valued at $716,000. While single-family residential construction was the undisputed market leader in August, medical and institutional buildings valued at $1.2 million were under construction in Tyler. That category was followed by storemercantile buildings, $1 million, commercial building additionsrepairs, $499,125, neat-ingair conditioning, $416,000, and residential building additionsrepairs, 323,105. Through the first eight months of this year, Tyler building permits nave increased by more than 51 percent, according to city records. KDFW Channel 4 DallasFort Worth (CBS) KXAS Channel 5 Fort WorthDallas (NBC) KTAL Channel 6 TexarkanoShreveport (NBC) KTVT Channel 1 1 Fort Worth (Ind.) KSLA Channel 1 2 Shreveport (CBS) By TONY FLOYD Business Editor Television viewers in TylerEast Texas the nation's 113th largest market are showing a willingness to tune in new stations, though Tyler's first and oldest station is holding onto a diminishing but substantial lead, July survey figures show.

The survey, conducted July 8-Aug. 4 by The Arbitron New York City, found Tyler-based KLTV-Channel 7 is still perched at the top for the estimated 199,800 TV households in the 10-county East Texas market. lead extends to virtually all time slots and demographic groups, though newcomer KETK-Cnannel 56, also of Tyler, is gaining ground in several categories, especially the 6 and 10 p.m. newscasts, according to Arbitron. Conducted six times annually by Arbitron, the ratings enable stations to set tangible advertising rates based on the estimated number of viewers during given time slots.

Additionally, the ratings provide advertisers with measurable data on which to develop their strategies and allocate spending. For East Texas, the primary market, which has climbed to a 113th standing nationwide from No. 142 in. the mid-1980s, takes in Smith, Cherokee, Gregg, Angelina, Houston, Nacogdoches, Rusk, San Augustine, Trinity and TylerLongview TV signals also reach the East Texas counties of Anderson, Camp, Franklin, Harrison, Henderson, Hopkins, Jasper, Leon, Morris, Panola, Polk, Rains, Red River, Sabine. Titus, Tyler and Van Zandt.

For prime-time programming, the 7-10 p.m. Monday through Saturday and 6-10 p.m. Sunday time slots for which TV stations charge maximum advertising rates, Arbitron gave KLTV a 6 rating and a 12 market share, compared with KETK's 5 rating and 10 share and KFXK's 4 rating and 8 share. Combined with a sister station in Lufkin, KTRE-Channel 9, KLTV gained a prime-time 11 rating and a 20 share. Cable WTBS Atlanta, Ga.

CNN Bean Counters Predict Horse Race CHANNEL7 Nickleodeon L3JLU 1 USA VOLUME 'Market includes eountiea of Smith, Angelina, Cherokee, Gregg, Houston, Nacogdoohea. Rusk, San Augustine, Trinity Wood. SOURCE: The Arbitron New York. N. iiMiiWiiftWii ficials agreed that the July survey was the least, important of the six released annually because programming is -dominated by reruns and viewers are more likely to be engaged in summer leisure activities, taking them away from their TV sets.

However, Phil Hurley, president, and chief executive officer of Lone Star Broadcasting the Tyler- RATINGS Page 4, Section 4 Fox Network affiliate that does not operate a news department, showed only minimal change in its viewer rating and share from May and July 1991 surveys. However, the Longview station was particularly strong with children and teen-agers, according to Arbitron. THE LEAST IMPORTANT Without exception, area station of KETK, with a new sister station, KLSB of Nacogdoches, garnered a combined 8 rating and 15 share. Arbitron defines a rating.as the percentage of the population in an area of dominant influence (ADD or market while a share is defined as the percentage of the total house-" holds using TV and people viewing TV reached by a station during a specified time. The market's only other station, KFXK-Channel 51 of Longview, a TU Employees Say Decision To Leave Was Difficult happened, and we got to pay offa couple of bills." Melvin Hampton, 46, also took the offer, but he said it wasn't easy.

"It's a pretty scary step when you've been in the company 19 years with the job market being like it is. A lot of companies are going through the same thing." Employees staying with the company said they are bracing for longer hours and heavier workloads, at least at first. "As many people who are leaving, it'll be a lot tougher on those who are staying," said accounts payable specialist Deborah Hardesty, who decided to remain. Ms. Hardesty, who said more than half the 42 workers in her department are leaving, said that her chances for a job outside TU are slim.

"I could have taken the severance package, but I've looked around, and there's just nothing out there," she said. The company's work force was pared by about 4,700 employees by Tuesday's deadline, TU executives said. More than half the workers are from Tarrant and Dallas counties, with the number choosing early retirement and severance about equally divided. The Dallas-based utility company, which includes principal subsidiary TU Electric, wants to reduce projected 1994 operating and maintenance expenses -by 20 percent. From Staff, Wire Reports DALLAS Texas Utilities' offer of early retirement and severance pack- ages couldn't have come at a better time, according to some employees who accepted the deal that eventually pared 30 percent of the company's workforce.

Others, however, decided they couldn't give up secure jobs to brave a shaky economy. The number of TylerEast Texas-area TU Electric employees accepting either early retirement or severance plans has not yet been disclosed. Whether they are leaving TU or staying, employees say they believe the company will emerge from the restructuring more competitive. "I think we're doing the right thing," said Larry Garner, an executive assistant in the transmission and distribution operation department. "Most employees who have elected to stay are trying to be as positive as they can." But, Garner said, "there's a certain amount of anxiety among all employees," knowing there could be further cuts.

Stephanie Russell, 28, of Euless said she felt lucky to get out when she did. Ms. Russell, who was seven months pregnant when the early retirement offer was announced, said she received $19,000 in severance pay. "I jumped at it. It came at a perfect time for me," she said.

"My daughter is eight weeks old now. I couldn't have stayed home with her if this hadn't Like the stock market, analysts say politics has two kinds of analysts: fundamentalists and technicians. Fundamentalists in politics use public opinion polls, experience and judgment to forecast electoral success, focusing on issues, campaign strategies and the qualities and character of the candidates. It's the same for their business counterparts who look at a company's leadership, balance sheet, products and service quality and competition to forecast financial success. The fundamentalists predict a Clinton-Gore win in November.

By contrast, stock market technicians chart past trends to develop models or "laws" for predicting future market trends. So, politics also has technicians who correlate election results with other indexes, and many of them forecast a Bush victory. Does anyone remember the "Misery Used by Jimmy Carter in his successful 1976 presidential campaign, the Misery Index (MD, equal to the sum of the inflation and unemployment rate, is a technician's way of measuring how the economy influences political outcomes, analysts say. During each election from 1952 to 1972, the MI was under 9 percent. Then it went off the charts.

The MI was 13.5 for the election of 1976, when the Ford administration had to defend a 5.8 percent inflation rate and 7.7 percent jobless rate. Four years later, the Carter administration gave the country an unprecedented MI of 20.6 with 13.5 percent inflation and a 7.1 percent jobless rate. Carter lost. The Reagan administration, thanks to Carter's appointment of Paul Volcker who brought vigorous anti-inflation policies to the Federal Reserve Board, reduced the MI by almost half to 11.8 and was re-elected in 1984. It was down to 10.1 by 1988, with 4.5 percent inflation and 5 .6 percent unemployment.

So, the lesson for incumbents is to keep the MI under 12 and you win. Today the MI is 10.9 including 7.7 percent jobless and 3.2 percent inflation. That means, according to technicians, a Bush win in November. Another example, though, the "Lichtman model," as developed by American University history professor Allan Lichtman, offers "key descriptions," and if the reader finds six or more of the following assertions false, then the party in power loses: Party mandate. The incumbent president's party holds more seats in the House of Representatives than after the mid-term elections of the previous administration.

Contest. There is no serious contest for the incumbent party no one is able to win a third of the delegates. Incumbency. The incumbent party candidate is the iitting president. Third party.

There is no serious third party or independent campaign. Short-term economy. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Long-term economy. Real growth during the incumbent administration's term is at least equal to average growth during the previous two terms.

Policy change. The incumbent administration effects major changes in nationalpolicy. Social unrest. There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Scandal.

The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Foreignmilitary failure. The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Foreignmilitary success. The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Incumbent charisma. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Challenger charisma. The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. If the election were held today, Lichtman's model says Bush would win.

Finally, stock market historian Yale Hirsch says incumbents win when the Dow Jones Industrial Average goes up between the last party convention and the election. But there are two exceptions since Harry Truman in 1948 and Dwight Eisenhower in 1956. With the DJIA down but rebounding since the Republican convention in Houston, the Dow charts a toss-up, making for a very intriguing fall campaign. Social Security's Future In Question Unless the United States quickly reforms its Social Security and other elderly retirement programs, millions of new immigrant workers will have to be brought in to support the country's ballooning elderly population, a study from the right-wing National Center for Public Analysis of Dallas shows. Without reform or more massive or low-wage immigration, which promises to boost long-term social costs, elderly entitlement program already in existence may cost more than half of the nation's total taxable payroll by the time this year's college graduates are ready to retire, the study concluded.

According to recent Social Security Administration forecasts, the tax rate need to fund Social Security and Medicare benefits already written into law will be between one-third and one-half of taxable payroll by the year 2020. When other elderly entitlement programs, such as health ben3 efits under Medicaid and the Veterans Affairs system, are added, the burden will be much higher, the study reported. Tony Floyd Is Business Editor of th Tyler Courier-Tlme--Telegraph. Items to ii considered" lor publication should be sent to fhyd In tare of Butler Publishing Co. P.O.

Box 2030, Tyler, Texas 75710. The newsroom fax number Is (903) 595-0335. Employers Cut Payrolls, Fed Slashes Rates WASHINGTON (AP) The nation's unemployment rate edged down to 7.6 percent in August De-cause of a temporary summer jobs program for teens, but adult joblessness worsened slightly and the economy lost thousands of crucial manu-facturingjobs. In response to a report Friday, the Federal Reserve cut a key short-term interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, the third reduction this year and the 24th since the economy turned sluggish in 1989. The move was intended to stimulate borrowing and buying but analysts said the most immediate effect may be yet another drop in bank deposit rates.

Administration officials tried to put a good face on the unemployment report, but Democrats and economists were dismayed by an 83,000 drop in U.S. payrolls. The unemployment rate, which declined from 7.7 percent in July, is derived from a of households while the payroll information is collected directly from businesses. White House Press Secretary Mar-lin Fitzwater said the drop in the jobless rate "is an encouraging sign that the economy is improving. However, Sen.

Donald W. Riegle, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, pointed to a decline of 97,000 jobs in manufacturing, the worst in 18 months, and said, "The situation is getting worse, not better." "The high-wage, high-skill manufacturing jobs are the centerpiece of our middle class and the loss of those jobs is grinding down the middle class," Riegle said. Junk Bonds Gaining New Respectability NEW YORK (AP) Instead 'of wasting away, as some people might have expected, the market for junk, bonds seems to be thriving on a national regimen of debt reduction. These high-yielding, high-risk securities epitomized the financial world of the 1980s, with its emphasis on leverage and casual attitudes toward risk. Then the junk bond market underwent a violent shakeout, from 1989 into 1991, as some of the biggest issuers and dealmakers in the business fell into default or disgrace.

But since then it has staged a comeback marked by increasing calm as well as rising prices. "After a decade of explosive growth, and three years of extreme volatility, we believe the high-yield market is approaching maturity as a viable financial marketplace for both issuers and investors alike," says Charles Lemonides, an analyst at Gruntal in a current report. So far this year, junk bonds have run consistently on or near the lead in the investment performance der-by. Over the seven months through July 31, Lipper Analytical Services' index of mutual funds investing in high-yield bonds posted a total return (price gains plus interest payments) of 13.4 percent. "This compares to a total return of 3.4 percent for the Standard Poor's 500-stock index and 4.8 percent for the Lehman intermediate government bond index," noted the Value Line Investment Survey.

Like stocks in the manufacturing industries, junk bonds have ed significantly this year from expectations of an economic recovery, Where The IRS Spends Its Time Scripps Howard News Service When the average motorist is stopped for speeding, he often says: "Why aren't you out arresting murderers and burglars, instead of bothering an ordinary citizen like me?" And when the average taxpayer is called in to justify a small deduction, she often says: "Why aren't you out collecting taxes from Mafia bosses and drug dealers, where the real money is?" Now the Internal Revenue Service is under fire for doing just that: pursuing bad guys working in drug rings, money laundering and organized crime. The most visible criticism comes from former IRS commissioners and a tax policy subcommittee ofthe American Bar Association. They challenged the IRS participation with other government agencies in covert activities with such names as Operation Greenback and Operation Bancoshares. The agencies grab crooks, headlines and lots of tax money. No dime novelist could come up with plots as colorful and devious as the true tales.

One operation targeted the Bank of Credit and Commerce International headquartered in Luxembourg, with a branch in Florida. The agents wanted to entice European bankers involved in money laundering to America. The authorities staged a grand wedding of two U.S. Customs officers who had. infiltrated the illegal activities.

Tne suspects received engraved invitations. Government agents, posing as chauffeurs, drove the visiting bankers to downtown Tampa, for a party the night before the wedding. When they arrived, the bankers didn't find a bevy of beauties ready to celebrate a bachelor's last night, but U.S. agents ready to arrest them. In Operation Greenback, agents tracked two men carrying large brown bags from bank to bank, then returning to an alleged drug dealer's apartment.

The brown baggers weren't eating lunch, they were depositing just under $10,000 cash in each bank. All of this to avoid the IRS form required from banks for cash deposits over $10,000, a form used to ferret out cash-intensive illegal drug operations. The critics aren't complaining about the success of these multi-agency operations. Their criticism relates to the IRS's diversion from its principal purpose: to encourage sometimes intimidate the voluntary payment of taxes. If ordinary Americans refuse to pay voluntarily, the system will break down under the weight of investigations; tax collections would slow down and the federal government couldn't operate.

The IRS criminal enforcement division, second only to the FBI in size, was established to target criminals who don't report illegal income and cheaters who fraudulently underreport their legal incomerln recent years emphasis shifted to collecting illegal income. The seasonally adjusted unem- I ir-r--Tl ployment rateln August marked the-second consecutive small drop after the rate hit an eight-year high of 7.8 ECONOMY Page 3, Section 4 JUNK Page 3, Section 4.