The Gazette from Cedar Rapids, Iowa • 16

DS GAZETTE: July 4, 1948 Experts-Good Times In Bag Rest of 1948 By J. A. Livingston. (Business Analyst.) WASHINGTON Draw up that easy chair and relax. Good times are In the bag for the rest of the year.

Thirty-three economists In key positions In Industry, government, finance and research have looked Into their crystal balls and see few refractory lights immediately ahead. sss nssMs High spending, high production I am, and have been for some JSB iff SEk MW Ul I TkSUmS WWW Bl BaaT Jtmm BaKa--JtaWw' SK mUtKKKKUlKBKKK'' 3timPkrt' and high employment are lore-cast, with a moderate recession starting late in '49. True, farmers may expect a four percent drop in agricultural prices by December as a prelude to further declines in '49. But that's good news for housewives. Living costs will go down.

If Wall Street follows the prediction chart, the stock market will rise months, trying to reorient myself." Upsurge in Confidence. This time the economists are more confident about the outlook. They see no noticeable drop in production, employment, or prices between now and June, 1949. Formerly, they put a six-months "stop-loss" on their prophecies of good times. But they do expect a marked decline in residential building, which is strange in view five percent during the rest of of tee expcted high level of pro duction Not only that, but today toe economists are figuring on a less severe setback than they expected six months ago and a year ago Three nut of four are betting that in the year ahead industrial production will be either higher or down no more than 10 percent; six months ago, only two out of SPIKE DRIVER AT WORK The Crandic route is making use of a mechanized spike driver as it lays the track for its new REA power plant line.

This picture shows crew operating the machine which rolls along on the rails. Man on either side of the operator (center) place spikes in position by the use of the long-handled took (such as the one in the hand of the man on the loft). Hammer then quickly drives the spike into the tie. Stool laying has progressed as for. as street.

Aug. I is the date set for opening the new line. PILE DRIVING FOR NEW CRANDIC ROUTE BRIDGE Photo shews pile-driving operations on the grade pf the Cedar Rapids and Iowa City railway's new lino at the point where it will cross Prairie crook enrouto to the now REA generating plant at street ana Bowling road SW. Bridge will be a wooden structure. Grading for the new lino is practically complete, officials of Crandic said Saturday.

Polos for the power line which will servo the Crandic's cars are up all along the route (see lino of polos extending into the background in the above picture). three were that optimistic; a year ago, only one out of three. Here's a tabulation of how the econo the year, hold level through the first half of '49, then drop five percent. The verdict of the economists is well nigh unanimous. Thirty replied to my semi-annual de-i tolled questionnaire with a fore-east that industrial production at the end of '48 would be as high or higher than now.

Only i three expect a drop and that leas than 19 percent. Twice before the economists were so solidly agreed. In June, 1946, all were bullish and right. They hit the production forecast for December, 1946, on the nose. But in January, 1947, they were almost all bearish and wrong.

They voted 12 to 1 for the recession that never came. Which proves the pitfalls of prophecy and the danger of following prophets unthinkingly. A basic point is involved. All men are subiect to a oendulum- mists forecast the Federal Reserve Board's index of industrial production for the year ahead: It of PorecuU chairman. Last week a reporter dropped in for a chat with Tan Drop In year 6 mos.

Week's Most Active N.Y. Stocks in his senate office. 20 or They talked alone and uninter Britain, Yugoslavia To Sign 2nd Timber Pact 10 to 20 Ago Ago Today .31 4 4 .34 30 22 21 33 26 14 33 48 rupted for a half hour. Less than 10 As the reporter left he sound Unchanged or up High Socony Vacuum 21 Commonwealth Jc South'n 3Vi another lone visitor wailing Taf t's outside office. was Reece.

The economic concensus is that 1949 will mark the end of the Radio Corp. ..14 BY TaB WORLD STAFF OF postwar inflation. Production of Pepsi Coia 15 goods and services, now at a rate LONDON Of special Interest In view of the Cominform blast accusing Yugoslavia of playing footy with West Minneapolis Mohne 18 Vi Sinclair Gil 29 TJSAF, Retired Officers and en-listed men who were serving in the aviation branch of the army at time of retirement now will be listed on the rolls of the United States air force. like swing in their judgment of or Z44 oimons a year, wui go up to 250 billions by the end of this Richfield Oil 41 the future. The unexpected has International 15 ern Powers Is a Yugoslav British softwood agreement ex pected to be signed soon.

Under it Yugoslavia will carry out this country's big Low Close Volume 20 21 69,600 3 3 66,300 13 13 58,800 14 14 55,000 17 17 55,100 28 20 52,900 38 41 46,800 14 15 41,300 17 17 39,600 10 10 32,900 14 16 31,500 35 38 31,200 23 25 30,400 187.90 190.05 Ugd. 61.52 63,94 up 112 35.54 35.63 off .18 gest postwar timber offer. The two governments have al year and then recede to 238 billions by the end of 1849. Production, at 192 today in the Reserve Board index, will rise to 195 in December, then slip to 187. Auto output will remain relatively steady, unemployment will rise somewhat, and department store dollar volume will decline about ready concluded a similar deal on hardwoods.

Canadian Pacific 17 Consolidated Vultee 11 St. Louis San Francisco 16 Union Oil California 38 National Supply 25 Industrial Averages 190.06 Rail Averages 63.94 Utilities Averages 35.70 of lords. His present constituency Stocks and Bond Of Interest in Eastern Iowa Britain will allow Yugoslavia to spend her timber money anywhere in the sterling area for consumer goods and certain types is being redistricted. Furnished by James E. Bennett and Company, 402 Merchants Bank Building.

Telephone 9151. William H. Jump, resident manager. a way of upsetting calculations. Thus in September, 1946, the stock market took a header.

Result: Many economists, along with business men, decided that a repetition of the 1920 21 commodity-price deflation was due to come. That Didn't Happen. A shift in thought a rise in optimism has taken place in the last 12 months, as feared events didn't take place. For instance: 1. Outright war with Russia.

Americans gradually became hardened to the threats of the Soviet Republic. A step-up in armament expenditures tended to generate hopes for peace rather than fear of war. 2. A wide-open break In com of capital equipment and ma chinery. Airmail Without fanfare, Canada has begun carrying by air all first class mail weighing less than an ounce.

The idea has been discussed over a long period in Naval Air The navy is quietly the United States and recom Chirrjr-Burrell Co Common 3J Clinton Industries 2' Collins Radio Common SV 'i Collins Radio Preferred OW Curtis Co ilk 14 8 in the next 18 months. U. 8. Steel--Up, Down. Those forecasters who were daring enough to try guessing Wall Street were moderately bullish.

They figured U. S. Steel, now around 80, would rise to 91 and then drop back to 83. General Motors, now around 64, would go up to 71 then slip to 67. Interest rates, both short and long term are expected to rise; the cost of living, now at 171, is mended by two major inquiry getting ready to expand its air installations.

The stations selected are expected to be announced within the next two weeks. The naw had asked congress Rail Shares In New High Since 1946 By T. W. Kienlen. NEW YORK (UP) A brisk rise in railroad shares on Friday carried that group to a new high since July 11, 1946, and lifted the main stock list to within striking distance of the two-year peak established on June 11.

The boomlet in the rail shares Friday climaxed an otherwise dull week on the New York Stock Exchange in which trading slackened to the slowest pace since the middle of last March. Buying in the rails developed on belated realization that Fader a 1 Judge Goldsbor ough in Washington via a permanent injunction had erected a barrier against any possibility of a railroad strike pending final agreement between the roads and the striking unions. Weather a Factor. Only other bit of news to prompt any buying was the announcement that Superior Oil of California had increased its earnings for the first nine months of its fiscal year to more than $30 a share, from little more than $10 a year earlier. Midweek activity in the stock market was hampered by sharply rising temperatures in New York City and high humidity, coupled with the annual outing of the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday.

Another factor restraining activity was the worsening of relations between Russia and the Western Powers in Berlin. Although the list closed the week on a quickening upbeat, gains for the week where they occurred were small. An exception was Nickel Plate common Eddy Paoer boards, i Fruehauf Trailer Common rruenaui 1 rawer ria sjvs Wheels within Wheels The Warsaw communique by Russia and seven satellite states is privately analyzed by British officials as "part genuine, part for funds to reopen 14 closed air stations in addition. Congress granted the funds but at the same time suggested the navy hold back a little on reorjenins all 14. The modity prices which would spread 104 throughout the business commu propaganda.

uenerai ruoiic utility common la Inter-Ocean Reinsurance Comm 3ft Inter-Ocean Securities Corp 4 Pf 125 par 31 Inter-Ocean Securities Corporation Common 35 Iowa Elec Co 4 1961 103 Iowa Elec Co Pfd I 84 Iowa Elec Co Pfd SO Iowa Elec Lt Pr 7rr Pfd 115 Iowa Elec Lt A Pr Pfd 111 Iowa Elec Lt Pr 8 Pfd 109 LaPlant -Choate Co Common fi LaPlant-Choate Co Pfd 31" Lone Bell Lumber Co Common 19 Merchants OUtlUlns nitv. The drop in February of navy probably will reopen only The communique contained an implied call for new Big Four this year was limited in scope, and soon after, prices started up talks on Germany, and the off i a few, IX any. Envoy to Keren The state de again cials say this was "extremely 3. Pricing of consumers out of the market. On the contrary, clever, because France wants such talks, too.

Thus it might tend Meredith Publlahlnc Co 34 atlonal Oats Common IS National Oats Common lfi grade students who said they had learned to fly from a comic book. "The price of the comic book waa 10 cents," the New Mexico writer says, "How come the air force needs $22,000 per man?" Along with the many other forms of entertainment offered people of the Cedar Rapids area over the weekend, flying is getting its share of the spotlight. Jim Wathan, Hunter manager, reported Friday that weekend chartering had been unusually heavy as flight enthusiasts made plans to leave the city. Most popular trip seems to be in the direction of Lake Okoboji. At Saxon field.

Art Kreening got the Jump on the holiday rush earlier in the week when he and the family hopped up to Superior, for several days of fishing. Art tried to tell Prop Wash the familiar story about the big one that got away, but he didn't get far. Student work continues at a housewives followed prices up Penlck Pord Ltd Inc Common an to split France and the Anglo- 180 28 20 .13 153 95 Eta Quaker Oats Co 8 Pfd partment is expected to announce soon appointment of a diplomatic representative to South Korea. He is expected to go to Seoul as soon as the new government of South Korea has been formed. uaker Oats Co Common 93' 4.

A bear market in Wall Street. After the September October break, the stock market did not American governments. put at 162 by the end of 1949; prices received by farmers are expected to dtop from 289 to 258. But wholesale prices in general are hardly expected to decline at all. The inference is that industrial prices will hold firm or continue to rise.

A federal deficit is predicted for the end of 1949, not with -standing the oft-mentioned Washington housecleaning If Gov. Thomas E. Dewey is elected President. Explanation: Increased national defense expenditures will offset savings. No letup in the rise in consumer credit is anticipated, and U.

S. exports, propped by ECA funds, are not figured to change. But Sioux City Oas Electric Comm 2d1. United Light Railways Comm 22', United Lt Ac Rys Co 7 Pfd 104 Ttmt.rt T.t. Ar Rh Co ft lAfL Pfd 104 Canadian Vets Canada would continue to slide.

United Lt Rys Co 6 Pfd 100 lik to make war service nav- 5. A collapse in exports. The Wa t.rloo ceaar rails nor Company; Richard O. Lang, S. C.

Johnson and Son, Racine, Glenn Munn, Paine, Webber, Jackson and Curtis, members of the N. Y. Stock Exchange; Robert R. Nathan, Robert R. Nathan Associates, Washington, D.

John H. Patterson, National Shoe Manufacturers Association. Shlskin of AFL. P. E.

Richter, General Foods Corporation; Boris Shiskin, economist, American Federation of Labor; Sumner Slichter, professor of economics, Harvard university; Donald B. Smith, investment counsel, Scudder, Stevens and Clark; Herbert Stein, committee for -economic development; O. C. Stine, U. S.

department of agriculture. Lazare Teper, director, research department, International Ladies' Garment Workers' union; Robert Thanhauser, Newburger and Company, members of the N. Y. Stock Exchange; Wood lief Thomas, director of research and- statistics, Federal Reserve Board; Rufus Tucker, General Motors Corporation; Arthur R. II pgr en, associate editorial editor, Minneapolis Star; Frank Valenta, vice-president, Distributors Group; Nathaniel R.

Whitney, Procter and Gamble Company; Aryness J. Wickens, assistant commissioner of the bureau of labor statistics; Hans A. Widenmann, Carl M. Loeb, Rhoades and Company, members of the New York Exchange; Donald B. Woodward, second vice-president, Mutual Life Insurance Company of New York.

ments to aoout Americans i common nv4 Marshall plan came to the rescue who served in the dominion forces w1.0 Cedar Fu wor of Great Britain and western Eu Glacier Chaser Cmdr. Donal B. MacMiUan, 75-year-old explorer, will seek new facts about the olaciers along the coast of 75 89 15T rope, made possible continued high shipments of goods from the rmionli must MaiI in fanaHn Wilson A Co Common IB United States, though not at so Baffin Land, big island between Canada and Greenland. He is leading an expedition including his wife and 14 U. S.

college students. a Jet Powers Navy fighters, high a level as in the spring of 1947. The economists have not given up the notion of a postwar depression. When it didn't come on schedule, they pot It off for another six months. But each postponement has caused Non-residents may use the money only for Canadian veterans insurance.

a British Security Leslie Hore-Belisha, former British war secretary, wants the British commonwealth to disperse its resources to overcome "the real weakness in commonwealth security: Over-concentration of industrial plants in the United Kingdom." residential building is expected to be down 32 percent. Assumption: Honne-buyers are being priced out of the market and the more urgent demand is being or has been satisfied. NEW LOCATION See Us Now At 2708 MT. VERNON RD. SE DIAL 2-7259 North American FJ will peak rate.

At- Hunter, five solo flight: were completed. They were be flown this year in the jet division of the Bendix cross-country race, opening day feature of the national air races. Air force made by William Cornish, Russell Owen, Milford Frazier and Roger A nationally known economist Borne, all of Cedar Rapids and associated with a large bank in Darrell Sinkey of Central City, jets flew in the two previous races. the south, writes: "I do not want Political Fame Ten days ago Saxon reported the issuance of New Dominion? The self-gov to seem discourteous in not an private tickets to Harold Eckman and Paul Cerny of Cedar Rapids waring your questionnaire. It is which soared 14M- points.

Undertone Good. Gains of around a point or more were noted in such pi votals as Illinois Central, Union Carbide, International Harvester, American Telephone and Allied Chemical. Corn Products, Johns-Man-yille, Anaconda, and Delaware Hudson lost a point or more each. The weekly industrial statistics presented a mildly irregular picture but the undertone waa good. There were increases in gasoline production and output of crude simply that I have been so wrong Sen.

Taft (R-Ohio) needed bodyguards to push his way through mobs of G.O.P. convention delegates, crowds of reporters and photographers, hundreds of and O. F. Stillinger of Troy Mills. erning colony of Southern Rhodesia, in Africa, soon will ask Britain for dominion status.

See Now For Sign Of All Size, Either NEON OR PAINTED Kenneth Barkwell of Marion on the bearish side regarding the whole postwar situation that completed his first night X-C, a a B-86 Cross-eountry The B-36 yr v- hop to Chicago and back, while Richard Birkett of Cedar Rapids And, as G.O.P. national chair 'Economists who participated include Adolph G. Abramson, SKF Industries; Solomon Barkin, director of research, Textile Workers Union of America; E. G. Bennion, Standard Oil Company of New Jersey; Louis Bean, U.

S. department of agriculture; Donald F. Bishop, investment counsel, Philadelphia; Robert Coltman, vice-president. Provident Trust Company, Philadelphia; Kermit Eby, Congress of Industrial Organizations; Edwin B. George, Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.

Charles O. Hardy, economic adviser to the house-senate joint economic committee: Joseph K. soloed. may make its first cross-country trip to help celebrate the opening of Idlewild, New York's giant new air terminal, the end of this month. The navy also may send BOB SMYTHI SIGN COMPANY 27M MT.

VERNON RD. SE New students to enroll at the Cedar Rapids and Marion Flying man, Carroll Reece held the center of spotlights on the convention platform. Hundreds of persons were trying to see him. Then Taft lost his bid for the presidential nomination, and Reece resigned as Oil, both of which reached new Service include Harry Nofal. dttoi Weibert and Lyle Gerdes of Mar ion, and Bernard Wingett of Cen tral City.

Not an of the flying, however, is record highs, and in electricity output and automobile production. Coal production was down slightly and there were fewer cars loaded on the nation's railroads. Money in circulation is again rising and the nation's gold reserve at Fort Knox, is increasing. Gold holdings of the nation have risen to an all-time peak of $23,532,000,000. ktleyman, Joseph K.

Heyman its largest plane, the XR-60, with a capacity of 186 passengers. Bevin's Future Foreign Secretary Ernest Bevin of Britain is expected to accept the offer of a new seat in commons from a "safe" Labor district. This would set at rest rumors he may retire or be kicked upstairs to the house being done by the young and the new. On Friday a Bonanza arrived at Company, Atlanta; James F. Hughes, Auchincloss, Parker and Redpath, members of the New York Stock Exchange; Dexter Keezer, McGraw-Hill Publishing Hunter from Washington, bearing four people.

They told Hunter Pilot Dean Terwilliger they had Vera C. Threlkeld says The convenient time to start saving money never seems to arrive. Times are either too hard or prices too high. Yet if we don't save what will happen to us when illness or old age forces retirement? Today's dollar value is small. Why not provide now for either premature death or old age? nown from Phoenix to Washing ton, D.

and were currently on tneir way to the west coast. All four two men and their wives told Dean they were over Appreciation of Principal VVWt mueh higher steek prices being forecast by leading advisory services, we recommend that investors take a fully invested position at once in selective stocks for appreciation of principal and high dividend return. May wo show you our list of personally analyzed companies? Feel free to write or phono at your earliest convenience. OsiidliBiafl INVESTMENT COMPANY 125 American Building (Entrant- an rirst Arenac) Henry Gundling Dial 6173 Miltir of National Association of SocBfttto Dealers. Inc.

ou years old. Con Trails Pan American Air C-O-A-L Glen Rogers Briquets. Pocahontas Furnace. Liberty Furnace $12.50 Green Mark Furnace. Green Mark Stoker $12.50 Par-Stoker Fuel $12.50 KENWOOD FUEL COMPANY By Lou ways has come up with a new vacation trip to Bermuda starting in Miami which will coat nnlv $232 including hotel accommoda The recent announcement that the government will continue to foot the bill for O.I.

flight training has left a lot of operators breathing easier. tions and meais. G. H. Kiester, contract agent for VA in Des Moines, scent several Have in for Your Vacations? Go to AT FIRST FIRST N.E.

Quick Action Low Coot Helpful Personal Service. Come to Tho Friendly Loan Comptnr on the Familiar Corner Loan $50 to $1,500 or More THE MORRIS PLAN Of course the Veterans adminis Cedar Rapids inspecting the flight tration also announced that it was Ernest Koselc and Company going to clamp down on the pro programs. The latest in one-man helicopters is an affair powered by two small engines that the pilot operates by standing in a pair of stirrups. It's called the flying shoe. gram and be a bit more careful JUNIUS M.

KEG LEY CERTIFIED PUBLIC ACCOUNTANT about approving applications for ESTATE PLANNING 58 Guaranty Building Turns Retirement Dreams Into Practical Plans with Investment Banking Service a 3-17M SANK CLEARINGS IMtMtWttltWtltOII IWttseaaitttmi this type of instruction. As it stands, the move should prove to he the stabilising Influence the program so obviously needed. The tiohtenino- of regulations certainly wont work any hardship on the conscientious operator, bus on the other hand it ought to make things a little harder for those Jew who have been taking advantage of the KNAPP 8 COMPANY Sit MERCHANTS NATIONAL BUILDING The following quotations are not to be construed as firm bids and offering but indicate price ranees of recent transactions. Bank clearings In Cedar Rapids for the week ended July 3 totaled $3,973,720.52 as compared to for the corresponding week of a year ago, the Clearing House reported Saturday. The to FlGGE, VAVRA COo INVESTMENT SECURITIES Member Chicago Stock Exchange 407 Merchants National Bank Building CEDAR RAPIDS Iowa If you are looking forward to sunny days of retirement, consult with the qualified investment bankers at the Ernest Kosek and Company.

A complete analyses of your stocks and bonds with constant reviews by this experienced staff assure satisfactory gains. Visit the Kosek offices soon. Cedar Rapids' Oldest and Largest Investment Banking Firm Investment Securities tal of clearings for the week end ed June 26 was $4,274,460.63. situation and were responsible for the sudden agitation regarding the setup. Speaking of flight training brings to mind a recent article written by an Albuquerque newspaper man who suggests that a senate investigation should be made into the amount the air force says it needs to train each pilot.

He points to the flight made several weeks ago by the two fifth CHECKS MORE POPULAR. NEW YORK (UP) The Na Telephone 5188 Russell F. Knepp Sam S. Johnson Hoyd H. Knapp tional Industrial Conference Board said more money changed hands Telephone 3-3593 REGINALD B.

FlGGE JOHN S. VAVRA through checking accounts last year than ever before in the his tory of the country. lltllllUIIWUIIHUIIIimiMUUIIIUIUUIIUIUUIIIIIMIUUIIUllUIIIIUHIIIUllulullluiiiuutuief.