Calgary Herald from Calgary, Alberta, Canada • 2

A4 Tuesday, September 15, 2009 Breaking news at calgaryherald.com IPOOTBC Editor Chris Varcoe 403-235-7549 e-mail: cvarcoetheherald.canwest.com NS DE FR0MA1 VOTE: Litmus test for Stelmach NDP, Bloc weigh backing Tories If I Christina Ryan, Calgary Herald Paul Hinman uses two phones to receive congratulations from well-wishers after winning the Calgary-Glenmore byelection on Monday. The Wildrose Alliance broke the Tories' decades-old grip on the riding. "The Conservative opponent was far behind, so I think (that) sends a very strong signal that we're not happy and the Conservatives will have to look at what they're doing." liberal Leader David Swann said the byelection outcome is a protest vote, but he didn't view it as a setback for his party. He's not certain why more of the protest vote went to the Wildrose Alliance instead of the Liberals, but said the party will now examine how to better connect with voters. In the Tory camp, Colley-Urquhart said the loss is a disappointment and will deliver a message to the Conservative party.

"People are grumpy with the premier. They're grumpy with the party," she said, noting concerns about issues such as health care and power lines. "There were just a whole number of things, I think, that collectively ended up in this outcome today and probably partofitwasme." In a statement released late Monday, Stelmach thanked Colley-Urquhart for running for the Tories, but failed to congratulate the province's newest ML A. "I regret we won't be welcoming Diane at the government caucus table," the premier said. "However, I want to assure all residents of Calgary-Glenmore that their issues will continue to be heard." Rounding out the field of six candidates were the NDPs Eric Carpendale, Social Credit Leader Len Skowronski and independent Antoni Gro-chowskL Elections Alberta, meanwhile is investigating a complaint from the Liberals that Hinman violated polling day rules by greeting voters outside at least one Calgary-Glenmore polling station.

The campaign team for Roberts circulated a video today showing Hinman shaking hands with voters outside of the polling station at Nellie McClung Elementary School Hinman's camp denied the accusations, saying they didn't break any rules. A former MLA who lost his Cardston-Taber-Warner seat to the Tories in the 2008 is so strong in Alberta that even a second conservative party can win and beat up the Liberals," Bratt said. The byelection was triggered after former Tory MLA Ron Stevens resigned his seat and cabinet post in May to join the Court of Queen's Bench. The Stelmach government's handling of health care, the economy and provincial finances were the biggest issues for voters at the door. During the campaign, Hinman urged voters to deliver the government a message by parking their votes with the right-wing Alliance party.

Voter turnout in Monday's byelection was 40.5 per cent, as getting out the vote appeared to be a critical factor for the Progressive Conservatives. In both the 2004 and 2008 provincial elections, Stevens captured about 50 per cent of the popular vote with more than 6,200 ballots cast in his favour in both campaigns, while Liberal candidate Roberts snared roughly one-third of the vote, good for about 4,200 to 4,300 ballots in both elections. JFEKETETHEHERALD.CANWEST.COM R0AUESIOTHEHERALD.CmWEST.COM Christina Ryan, Calgary Herald Liberal Candidate Avalon Roberts said the vote sent a message to the Stelmach government, just the "wrong messenger." Conservatives, who won an overwhelming majority in the March 2008 campaign. "If this is the new truth in Alberta politics, that Tories in Calgary are so upset with Stelmach that they either don't vote or park their votes with the Wildrose Alliance, this is a death blow to the (Conservative) party," said David Taras, political analyst at the University of Calgary. Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Mount Royal University, said Monday's result is also an indictment on the provincial Liberals, who were unable to capitalize on a massive right-wing vote split.

"It shows that (the Liberals) have got some real challenges, that the conservative culture DAVID AKIN Canwest news Service OTTAWA Prime Minister Stephen Harper will face his first confidence vote of the fall political season Friday but his government has a reasonable Chance of surviving with the support of as many as two of the three opposition parties. The liberals said they would do what leader Michael Ignati-eff vowed to do last month and vote to bring the government down on the first opportunity which should come Friday afternoon on a budget-related ways and means motioa The NDP and the Bloc Quebecois, however, are keeping their options open, saying they'll decide later this week how they will vote. If any one party supports the government Friday, it will ALSO SEE survive. If all MPs from all Tory lead three opposi- over Grits tion parties strong: poll vote against A6 the govern- Harper has ment, the no fear of fall government election will fall and Don Martin the coun- A6 try will be plunged into its fourth election in five years. Anew poll, done exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National, shows NDP support has dropped to 12 per cent while Conservative support is at 39 per cent.

The Liberals were the choice of 30 per cent of 1,001 voters polled over the weekend. The pollster, Ipsos Reid, says the results are accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty tabled the ways and means motion in the House of Commons on Monday. In it, the government spells out some of the regulatory and legislative details for some measures announced in the budget, such as the home renovation tax credit and drought and flood relief. Ways and means motions are routine parts of the annual federal budget cycle.

Because of their connection to the budget, they are automatically considered confidence votes. NDP Leader Jack Layton and BQ. Leader Gilles Duceppe said they would make final decisions about the ways and means motion later this week, although they and their advis-ers appeared to give it qualified support. On Monday, the government announced it would change EI rules to allow thousands of workers to extend their benefits by up to 20 weeks. Many of those workers are in the auto, manufacturing and forestry sectors.

Although the NDP, like the other opposition parties, wants the government to go further with EI reforms, the party seems prepared to endorse the Conservative proposal The announcement today appears to be a step in the right direction," said NDP Leader Jack Layton. The EI legislation will be tabled formally on Wednesday. Although that legislation is not a confidence vote, the support for the government on Friday's ways and means motion is tied to their acceptance of that EI legislation. The Bloc Quebecois, on the other hand, says that while it has no confidence in the government's overall program, its litmus test has always been whether they believe a particular measure is good for Quebec. And, on this point, the BQsccms prepared to conclude the home renovation tax credit and the other measures In the ways and means motion are just as popular with Quebecers as they are In other provinces.

If the government makes it through this week, It will have ensured its survival at least until early October. The next checkpoint will be the motion of non-confidence the Liberals likely will Introduce the week of Sept. 28. Vote gives upstart Alliance legitimacy Byelection upset condemns policies of Tories, Liberals Calgary-Glenmore byelection results Total eligible voters: 27,212 Total votes cast: 11,028 Turnout: 40.5 per cent Wildrose Alliance: Paul Hinman (37) Liberal Avalon Roberts (34) Progressive Conservative Diane Colley-Urquhart 2,863 (26) NDP Eric Carpendale -148 (1) Social Credit Len Skowronski -118 (1) Independent Tony Gro-chowski-71(l) All 66 polls reporting Source: Elections Alberta provincial election, Hinman repeatedly attacked the Stelmach government during the byelection campaign for shoddy fiscal management, revamping oil and gas royalties and creating an Edmonton-based health superboard. He originally resigned the Alliance leadership in June amid calls for a new, more charismatic leader, but decided to run in Calgary-Glenmore where he now lives after being encouraged by party members to do so.

The Alliance will crown a new leader at its Oct 17 convention in Edmonton. Monday's result turns the city's political map on its head and raises more questions about how well Stelmach reso- Like Colley-Urquhart, she fell victim to the first major sign of a right-wing backlash in Alberta. Byelections rarely portend general trouble for the Tones, but this is the one result that could seriously jolt them. Hinman's victory shows the Ed Stelmach political danger of Stelmach's free-spending policy during the recessioa With the deficit set to hit $6.9 billion, even as the government begins serious cuts, the Tories now face discontent from both the left and right. Hinman becomes a rarity in Alberta politics, an MLA elected to serve in more than one riding.

He had held Cardston-Taber-Warner before being beaten by the Tories in 2008. His win strengthens the Alliance enormously just as it's on the verge of picking a new leader. Stelmach's Tories will be tempted to see the result as just more rabble-rousing from the city that lost its homebody premier when the party dumped Ralph Klein. That would be a mistake. Hinman ran a smart, aggressive campaign and hit the public mood bang-on with his slogan; send a message to Ed Stelmach.

And there could be another threat to the premier Christina Ryan, Calgary Herald Conservative candidate Diane Colley-Urquhart finished third in the Calgary-Glenmore byelection. nates with voters in Calgary, the heart of the oilpatch. The Tories now hold 17 of the city's 23 ridings, with the Liberals owning five and the Alliance one. The byelection was the first political test for the Conservative government since the economy tanked last fall, as the recession has gutted tens of thousands of jobs, eroded provincial revenues and put Alberta on course for a record deficit this fiscal year. Political observers also cast the byelection as an important exam for the Liberals and the Wildrose Alliance.

But for the most part, they believed it was a litmus test on voter satisfaction with Stelmach's from inside his own party. The Alliance victory increases the chance of a subsantial negative vote in a mandatory leadership review at the party's annual convention in November. For the Liberals, the loss is a serious slap at party Leader David Swann, who had virtually no impact on a campaign in his own city. The devastating truth for the Liberals and Tories is that they lost to the only party with no leader at all Hinman was surely helped by bad news on fronts like health care. And there's more to come.

Wednesday will bring a major announcement from the Alberta Health Services Board about "re-distribution" of hospital beds. What this involves, according to sources, is shifts in bed use that will eventually provide more long-term care beds. In this process, some acute care beds will be lost a move sure to spark outrage. The bed shuffling will take place in at least two stages with most benefits coming later, the sources say. The measures aren't about cost-saving, the sources say.

But they're sure to be portrayed that way by the unions. All this means more discontent with the Tories. And now, every step they take has to be measured against hostility from both the left and the right. DBRAlDiii THtHtRALD.CANWtST.COM CALGARYHERALD cany Visit our website for the latest on 1 I the byelection Paul Hinman Age: 50 Political history and occupation: Hinman, interim leader of ttw Wildrose Alliance, is former MLA representing Cardston-Taber-Warner. He was the south Alberta's riding MLA for four years until he finished second In the 2008 general election.

On Monday, he was elected the MLA for Calgary-Glenmore. He lived In Calgary until he was 13. For the past 20 years, he's lived mostly In the southern Alberta community of Welling, but has a secondary home In Calgary. He was involved in farming and small business before entering politics. Alberta, are often an opportunity for voters to let government know they're unhappy, without toppling the reigning party, analysts have argued.

But even longtime Alberta political observers were shocked by Monday's result Taras believes some Calgary Tory MLAs will now debate whether to try to force Stelmach out as leader or defect to the Alliance. "If Colky-Urquhart can los, they can all lose," he added, Second-place Liberal can-didate Avalon Roberts recognized what the emboldened Alliance meant to Monday's byelection, calling the fledgling right-wing party the "wild card." The wild card has definitely added a different dimension to the race," she sail JftKtttdrHtHlRALD.CANW5T.COM JASON FEKETE CALGARY HERALD Monday's byelection result in Calgary-Glenmore highlighted what's potentially the new X-factor in provincial politics, one that could have profound effects on the major parties: the emergence of the Wildrose Alliance. The byelection victory for Paul Hinman and the rural-based Wildrose Alliance and the Tories' stunning third-place finish in an affluent urban riding could be a harbinger of things to come in the next provincial election, argue political observers and party operatives alike. "They (Conservatives) have to be very nervous," said David Taras, political analyst at the University of Calgary. "That has got huge implications in the next general election," added one veteran Progressive Conservative political organizer, who asked not to be identified.

"This is not a byelection to be written off." I linman captured Monday's byelection with 37 per cent of the vote, compared to 34 per cent for Liberal hopeful Avalon Roberts and 26 per cent for Conservative candidate Diane Colley-Urquhart, a longtime Calgary alderman. As the fledgling Wildrose Alliance builds grassroots support and possible mo mcntum with the election of a new leader in October, every ballot cast for the party will be a "swing vote" in future elections that chews away at Conservative support, argued the Tory Insider. Byelections, particularly In DON The Liberals wanted Wildrose Alliance candidate Paul Hinman to do well in Calgary-Glenmore but not this well Hinman didn't just shave a few points off the Tory vote, he robbed it blind, winning the byelection and dumping Tory Diane Colley-Urquhart deep into third place. It was a shocking defeat for the Tories, who counted on Collcy-Urquhart's solid name as a city alderman to offset public uncase with the government and Premier Ed Stelmach. Colley-Urquhart kept her distance from the premier throughout the campaign, hoping to impress the voters with her independence.

It didn't work, for her or Stelmach. In fact, it was a fiasco. Any connection with the premier now looks like trouble in the city. Colley-Urquhart goes back to city council a severely discredited alderman. The Liberals, after winning a steady 30 per cent of the Glcnmore vote over several elections, never imagined any alternative to the Tories but themselves.

But Avalon Roberts a tough and determined candidate couldn't pull it off on her third try..