The San Francisco Examiner from San Francisco, California • 29

rTrt' B-2 Friday, November 13, 1992 SAN FRANCISCO EXAMINER HISPANIC TRADE SHOW BOUNCE from B-l The trend in store purchases by personal check was stronger in the first four days after the presidential election then It had been In October, according to TeleCheck Services a check-guarantee service for merchants. The Improvement in California was dramatic. But that finding doesn't correspond with the observations of merchants and retailing analysts, who report no substantial change in the strength of U.S. business. Check transactions account for about 30 percent of retail sales, according to a recent survey.

TeleCheck based its figures on the sales of 10,000 of its 100,000 retail clients. Percent Increase from same period In previous year 1 October I 1 Post-election V. at 1 MIAMI 10.8 hfi 8.6 6.6 6.9 4.7 California United States Wednesday through Sunday, Nov. 4-8, 1992, compared with Wednesday through Sunday, Nov. 8-10, 1991.

Mif 11- -1 li i him API KEVORK DJANSEZIAN Airport Marriott Hotel bills itself as Hispanic market trade show. Firms Graciela Villegas, left, offers catalogs to Bank of America exhibitors Mary Scanlon, right, and Saman-tha Reams at the Hispanic Market Trade Media Expo in Los Angeles Thursday. The fifth-annual ex- Hispanic population of about Critics say recovery plan for Britain is too insipid Clinton 'bounce' is hope, not reality end. When I tried to confirm it with (inquiries about) sales, it wasn't there yet" An executive with a company that has a lot of department stores in California laughed at the question of a Clinton bounce. "You didn't believe that stuff, did you?" he said Thursday.

"Industry people are optimists at heart. They look for the sunshine everywhere. "October was strong. If that continues this month, you may have a recovery coming on. But that doesn't have much to do with Bill Clinton." Now the Clinton team is planning a holiday-season "economic summit" Word out of Little Rock is that one purpose will be to publicize the sad state of the economy and throw a wet blanket on expectations for rapid improvement.

The president-elect said Thursday that he would pursue a "longer term economic commitment" and voters don't expect "overnight mir acles." A new Money magazineABC News poll already had shown only a slight increase in its consumer-confidence index from responses last week. "Obviously, his (Clinton's) victory does not seem to have lifted the public's spirits dramatically, despite the best hopes of his supporters," Money managing editor Frank Lalli said in a news release. The outlook of MoneyABC respondents concerning their own finances did improve markedly last week. Their inclination to buy and their optimism about the economy's future, however, grew by only a tiny amount Their current view of the economy dipped. Tiny jump in optimism Similarly, Sindlinger continuous national telephone survey of thousands of consumers showed a tiny post-election jump in people's optimism about their own financial outlooks.

But Albert Sindlinger said the rise was more than offset by consumers' grimmer reports on their actual economic situations now. The first solid indication of how moods translated at the cash regis ter comes from a weekly survey of revenues at publicly held depart ment and discount stores. GMfromA-1 GM execs vow to build better cars and not enough on product strategy- I think the company is main taining an antiquated product line strategy," Bowyer said. He said GM would, not be able to preserve most of the cost savings unless it came up with more inspired products. GM executives showed analysts pictures of several new products, including a newly styled Chevrolet Lumina that will debut in 1994 and an all-new Chevrolet Monte Carlo.

Hoglund also said GM will ac celerate the introduction of a small pickup truck by one year to 1994 to try to counter similar new products by Ford and Toyota. REICH from B-l Transition chief breaks with past nomic Security Council are yet to be named. More than a one-time economic stimulus, Reich advocates government intervention to reshape the economy and ensure an edge for the United States in the economic race against Germany and Japan. "He puts greater emphasis on mixed (private and) public policy initiatives that have been lacking since the Reagan years," said No bel laureate economist Paul Samu-elson. Reich was a harsh critic of the Republican era, from the corporate takeovers of the 1980s to the tax-cutting policies that he said shifted wealth to the rich at the expense of the middle class.

But far from a 180 -degree turn away trom the free market and toward government control, Samu-elson said Reich would like to take a 30-degree shift that would help develop "human capital" In the emerging global econo my, the only economic asset still relatively immobile is a nation's people their education and skills, and the communication and V. po, at the L.A. the only national 25 million with 1930s. Lamont cut interest rates to 7 percent while unveiling his 1993-94 spending plans, which mixed a 4 billion pound ($6 billion) boost for industry, capital projects and the depressed housing and auto markets with a public-sector pay squeeze. The 1 percent rate cut, to the lowest since 1978, was welcome news to industry and millions of homeowners, whose spending has been drastically curbed by the high cost of loans and a debt overload from the excesses of the late 1980s.

But a new survey by the Confed- than the fair-market value of the broadcast rights. Through a similar bargain-priced broadcast contract, KTVU, which has broadcast the Giants games for 35 years in San Francisco, could profit "through its partial owner ship of the Giants even if the franchise only broke even or lost money. The station has said it is investing $5 million in the deal but has not said how it may affect broadcast revenues. Industry sources were surprised by the sale announcement. Ron Aldrige, editor of the trade journal Electronic Media said KTVU was a strong independent station in a profitable market, and the parent company, Cox, also is thought to be in a strong financial position.

"I'm a bit puzzled," Aldridge said. Cox owns five other network affiliated television stations, 13 radio stations, plus a number of newspapers and cable television outlets. Cox said is has no current plans to sell any of its other properties. According to Frank Kalil, a Tucson-based broker of television station sales, broadcast properties are generally valued at between seven and nine times the cash value of their annual advertising revenue. "San Francisco is the fifth-larg est market in the country and the larger markets are doing better than the smaller ones, so you would expect the sale to go for the high end," Kalil said.

Television stations had been selling for as much as 20 times the value of their advertising revenue "during the go-go '80s," said Doug Wills, spokesman for the National Association of Broadcasters in Washington, D.C. "But the prices have dropped somewhat as advertising revenues flattened during the recession," Wills said. On the other hand, falling interest rates have made it possible for buyers to pay more to acquire stations in a larger market "It's just like buying a house," Wills said. "As the cost of money drops you can set your sights higher." Aldridge said owners of televi sion stations usually try to make sales in secret to avoid affecting the i i i i a im are eyeing a domestic a he 8.9 0.8 Greater Bay Area Los Angeles EXAMINER GRAPHICS cording to recent studies. TeleCheck says its national results predict fairly accurately the U.S.

Commerce Department's retail sales figures. In the Bay Area, which hadn't been doing as badly as Southern California, the swing was a slightly' smaller 10 percentage points. October sales in the region rose 0.8 percent and post-election sales rose 10.8 percent, TeleCheck said. "It could be the fact that Clinton won the election," TeleCheck spokeswoman Laura Hughes said "of the results. "I can't go out on a limb and say that" The California results don't jibe with the observations of major retailers and analysts.

They saw no more evidence of a Clinton bounce in the state than anywhere else. Executives of Mervyn's, Nordstrom and Williams-Sonoma said their companies had no recent improvement in business attributable to the election. Pollster Sindlinger's outlook is sour. "Clinton can't put any money in your checking account," he says. "This election was strictly a repudiation of Bush.

"Fm sure Mr. Clinton means well, but I assure you hell be the Democratic (Herbert) Hoover. isn't any recession, and there isn't any recovery. This is a structural change, and itll take more years than four." work force," which totaled 91,000 people at the end of last year, to the range over time." He said this would allow GM to bring its cost structure in line with that of Ford Motor Co. Ford's costs were judged to be the lowest in the industry in a recent study by independent consulting firm Harbour and Associates.

The study said GM's outdated operations require it to use 4.55 work-iers for each car it builds, compared with 3.01 workers at Ford. Smith also said GM will continue to consolidate support staff at its carmaking divisions in order to reduce the U.S. work force. GM has already announced plans to cut 74,000 jobs and close 21 parts and assembly plants in North America by 1995. But so far the company has only identified 14 of those factories.

create fiber optic communications, networks and offer companies the people that can work in a high-tech 21st century economy. It is also the centerpiece of a tax on business that will be used to fund jobs-training programs. Reich, a lecturer on public policy at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, met Clinton in 1968 when both were sailing for England to" attend Oxford University as scholars. Both men attended Yale University law school Reich has published eight books on the global economy, many bestsellers.

His most recent, "The Wprk of Nations," regarded as a pnmer in "Clintonomics," stressed the importance of a highly skilled work force in the global economy. NEW YORK (API Money ralei for Friday reported by Telerslt Syitemi Inc: Tetania Inlereil rale Index: J.0; Prime Rate: Discount Rale: 3.00; Broker call loan rait: Federal fun market rait HloA J.W7S Low M125 Ltit MM; Daler ommerclal paper M0 dan: 1.20-3.40; Commercial paper by finance company 3O-270 days: 1.2W.t.Ctrllfl- in" Prlmfv: uo i. oay, J.JO; days, 3.M; don, J.SI; 120 dan, 3.S; ISO dayi, 3.SJ; UO dayC TVeasury Bill auction rnufH, average dltcount rate, Jfljonlh at of rtovernber i. fenontrt at of November w'1 baili, yMdadiutltd for antlanl malurlly. Weir, as of November Treaiury Bill market rale, Wear: 1.51-3.4 Traaiury Bond markC rale, 30-yter: Fri.

7.SI SOURCE; TeleCheck Services Inc. Sales rose 6.7 percent last week from a year earlier, according to the New York research concern Johnson Redbook Service. But October sales had risen 8.1 percent. "If there's a Clinton bounce, it certainly wont be before Inauguration Day," in January, said Johnson Redbook analyst Steven Marotta. Good news in Golden State One flash survey provided brighter news, especially in beleaguered California.

TeleCheck Services Inc. said national purchases by check rose 8.6 percent Wednesday through Sunday after the election, compared to the equivalent five days of the week in early November 1991. The October rise was a little smaller at 6.6 percent year to year, the check-guarantee service said. In California, TeleCheck reported a major swing of 11.6 percentage points in the state's sales trend between October and the post-election period. In October, California purchases by personal check were down 4.7 percent from a year earlier.

After the election, sales rose 6.9 percent Economists say California, with an unemployment rate nearing 10 percent, hasn't hit bottom in its deepest depression since the 1930s. The state went strongly for Clinton in last week's election. Sales by check account for 30 percent of retail transactions, ac- He said GM's progress in cutting its losses by $3 billion was better than expected. A third came from an improved sales mix as the company reduced low-profit fleet sales and sold more trucks. Another third came from GM's higher prices and lower rebates, while the final slice came from cost reductions.

However, Hoglund said GM faces several daunting challenges ahead, including an underfunded pension obligation, which is ted to total $11 billion by the end of this year. Smith was appointed chief executive of the world's biggest auto company on Nov. 2, replacing Robert Stempel who was forced out by the board of directors. This was Smith's first meeting with analysts following the management shift Ultimately, Smith said, GM would like to get its white collar transportation systems linking them together," Reich wrote dur- ing the campaign. "This shift from 'trickle-down' economics premised on financial capital to 'grass-roots' economics based on human capital is not just a moral imperative," he said.

"It is also the best means for getting the national economy to grow." In a fast-changing world in which companies move from one nation to another, the only way to keep America strong is to invest in the assets that cannot be moved people and infrastructure. That is the heart of Clinton's $220 billion investment program that aims to upgrade highways, ARRIVALS Saturday, Nov. 14 purchasing power of $200 billion. eration of British Industry showed business gloom was still deepening across Britain. Mixed news for the government cams' Friday with figures showing Britain underlying rate of infla tion fell in October to 3.8 percent from 4.0 percent in September but that the wider retail price index rise was unchanged at 3.6 percent.

Industrial production rose 0.3 percent in September from August, mainly due to increased oil output, but manufacturing production fell a disappointing 0.4 percent, slight ly worse than expected by markets. sale price or the morale of the staff. "But the business is such that once a station goes on the market it is almost impossible to keep a secret," Aldridge said. tsuoyea ny such fox nits as "The Simpsons" and "Beverly Hills 90210," and its highly rated "10 O'Clock News," KTVU is among the highest rated stations in the Bay Area. Exact ratings figures vary according to who is interpreting them.

According to figures supplied last week by KTVU, the station attracts more total viewers than any other San Francisco TV sta tion. In May, the most recent month's figures supplied by the station, KTVU was watched by 2.37 million viewers. Next was KPLX, with 2.18 million viewers and KGO with 2.15 million view ers. KTVU's ratings in San Francisco are also higher than those of the Fox Network nationwide, the sta tion said. In May 1992, according to the station, KTVU aired six of the top 20 prime programs among adults 18 to 34, seven of the top 20 among adults 18-49 and seven of the top 20 among adults 25-54.

In October, according to the station, its "10 O'Clock News" was tied for top ratings in the Bay Area with KGO's 11 p.m. newscast. Earlier this year, station general manager Kevin O'Brien made broad and public hints that KTVU might leave Fox for an alliance with NBC a suggestion promptly denied by NBC higher-ups. The statements were particularly unusual because O'Brien is chairman of the Fox Affiliates board of governors (as well as executive vice president for the Cox-Independent Broadcast group, for whom he also oversees WKBD-TV, Detroit). "Our news department is the best operation in town, and there isn't a network worth its salt that doesn't find that intriguing," O'Brien said at the time.

"There has in the past been a sincere interest from NBC to ei- ther buy or affiliate with KTVU," said. "This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone in the industry. NBC and KRON have frequently been at odds over the local affiliate's promotion of the network. Examiner staff writers Al Morch and Charlotte-Anne Lucas contributed to this report By Paul Holmes REUTER LONDON Britain's finance minister won high marks from his party Friday for a recovery package intended to lift the country out of a recessionary rut and revive the tumbling fortunes of Prime Minister John Major's government. But critics said Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont's tonic for growth, unveiled Thursday, might be economically flawed, too insipid to provide the strong dose of confidence vital for ending the longest recession since the KTVU-TVfromB-1 KTVU-TV put up for sale potential transactions, he said.

"However, should the offers not meet our high expectations, we will withdraw the stations from the market," Kennedy said. "We're proud of both stations and have no overwhelming desire to sell them." Industry sources said Fox Broadcasting the Tribune Newspaper Co. and Chris-Craft Industries are the three major bidders for the two stations. A Cox spokesman denied comment on potential buyers. KTVU, headquartered in Jack London Square in Oakland, began broadcasting in 1950 and became an affiliate of Rupert Murdoch's Fox Network when it debuted in October 1986.

KTVU could potentially reap benefits from its involvement with the Giants in a manner similar to that of station WGN in Chicago. Both WGN and the Cubs are part of the Tribune which owns the Chicago Tribune. WGN recently paid the Cubs $5 million a year to broadcast the team's games a figure analysts said was about $20 million lower How to reach the Business Department general Information (415) 777-7925 Fax (415)957-9428 Butlnaai Editor (415) 777-7927 Raal Eatata Editor (415) 777-77B4 Monay Talka columnlat (415) 777-7816 Movara and Shakara columnlat (415) 777-7863 Advartlalng a Markatlng (415) 777-7927 Banking Flnanca (415) 777-7786 Biotachnology Haalth cara (415) 777-7929 Computara Softwara (415) 777-7928 Hlgh-Tach a Workplace (415) 777-7926 Paraonal flnanca (415) 777-7880 Mailing addraaa: Business Desk San Francisco Examiner P.O. Box 7260 San Francisco, CA 94120 Assets of the nation's 616 retail money market mutual funds fell $1.61 billion in the latest week to $388.26 billion, the Investment Company Institute said Nov. 12th.

SOURCE: investment Company Institute. EXAMINER GflAPHCS Money supply statistics were not available Friday because of the Veterans Day holiday vessel From Berth California Orion Los Angeles Oak23 Canada Express Long Beach Oak68 Cmb Plantin Seattle Oak68 Maria Maersk Tokyo Oak24 Northern Dawn Long Beach Oak68 Oocl Fortune Hong Kong Oak62 Prince No. 10 Los Angeles SFP80 DEPARTURES Saturday, Nov. 14 Vessel To Berth California Orion Tokyo Oak23' Canada Express Vancouver Oak68 Cmb Plantin Long Beach Oak68 Fidiaa India SFANC-9 Prince No. 10 Japan SFP80.