The Boston Globe from Boston, Massachusetts • B5

TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 2009 The Boston Globe Business B5 Whole new ballgame for two automakers Steven Syre BOSTON CAPITAL Coming attractions Not all stations wait to go digital Despite US's delay, some switch today GM, Chrysler plan to shed once iconic brands as they rethink their lineups in an effort to stay afloat At some point, economists will scan a fresh batch of government reports and detect glimmers of hope for better times. But not this week. Among the regular economic updates due in coming days, the Commerce Department will report tomorrow on the number of housing starts for January. I don't think it's entirely a coincidence President Obama picked the same day to disclose his plan to help homeowners avoid foreclosure. Economists think the January housing starts number will show builders broke ground on the fewest houses in 50 years, which happens to be how long the govern- Falling prices may seem like happy news, but real price deflation is a serious danger.

Modern-day models like these might not end up as symbols of Detroit's failure, as the Edsel was. But their future is in doubt. Despite the federal government's decision to delay the transition to all-digital television broadcasting until June, a number of New England stations are making the switch today. For example, the NBC and CBS network affiliates serving Providence and the New Bedford area, WJAR and WPRI, are scheduled to go all-digital today. Viewers who receive TV programs over the air through an antenna will no longer be able to view these stations unless they sign up for cable or satellite TV service, buy a new TV with a built-in digital tuner, or buy a converter box, which will allow an older analog set to pick up digital signals.

The ABC and Fox stations serving Providence, WLNE and WNAC, will continue analog broadcasts, but most regular programming, like prime-time entertainment shows, will be blacked out. Their analog channels will show only news programs and information about how to convert analog TV sets to pick up digital signals. WNAC will carry these limited analog broadcasts for 14 days, while WLNE will carry them for 60 days. The CBS and NBC affiliates serving Burlington, will carry limited analog programming for another 60 days, while Burlington's FOX and ABC stations will go all-digital today. Feb.

17 was the original date set for the final transition to digital over-the-air TV broadcasts in the United States, when all major stations were expected to turn off their analog transmitters and switch to digital-only broadcasting. But last week, the government pushed back the date to June 12 to give Americans more time to prepare. According to the ratings giant Nielsen about 6 million US households still lack TV sets that can receive FORD FLEX For: Ralph Lauren helped create it. Against: The lime green Polo sweater of the car world: eye catching, but you'll never buy it. Prognosis: Could become a collectible like, yes, the Edsel.

PONTIAC For: Memories of the GTO. Against: Memories of the Aztek. Prognosis: To the dismay of blue-collar female buyers, who love the G5 coupe, it will shrink down to a performance-only brand. DODGE CALIBER For: It replaced the Neon. Against: Everything else.

Prognosis: Irrelevant three years after introduction. SATURN For: Great dealer experience. Against: Never became the slayer of Hondas and Toyotas it wanted to be. Prognosis: The brand has tremendous value, but will have a hard time surviving. ment has been keeping track of the statistic.

That's certainly bad, but it won't be the most significant economic number of the week. The consumer price index for January, due out Friday, will provide a different and more important picture of the economy. Consumer prices are expected to rise modestly for the first time in six months, but the January data will probably cap a year-long period in which overall prices fell. Forecasts for the 12-month decline: A tiny 0.1 percent. But a year-long decline of any kind hasn't happened since 1955.

The consumer price index data will come out one day before a report expected to show wholesale prices fell 2.5 percent in January compared with the same month last year. Falling prices may seem like happy news, and they can do some good in limited, short-term doses. But real price deflation is a serious danger to an economy that's already struggling to get back on its feet. Price declines caused by weak demand, rather than normal competition or innovation, can become a destructive cycle that makes economic matters much worse. Consumers see prices falling and spend less, expecting an even better deal in the near future.

Plenty of excess economic capacity may help prove them right. That saps demand, steadily driving down the value of goods and services. It's not the way a limping economy recovers its health. Many economists think the American economy will suffer through a brief period of deflation before prices recover. Among other things, they point to the government's stimulus plan as a catalyst to help sustain prices through the roughest patch of the economy.

But pressure on prices is everywhere and you don't need a government report to detect it. Shares of big supermarket companies slumped last week after a retail analyst at Citigroup Global Markets warned a "modern-day price war" could break out over everyday items like milk, cheese, and bread. Food prices moved up sharply when fuel prices spiked last year, and haven't fallen nearly as quickly. But the Citi report indicated supermarkets are lowering shelf prices now in anticipation of price cuts from vendors. Eventually, inflation may become the biggest threat to an economy stimulated with trillions of dollars from the government and renewed, private activity.

But that's a report, and a problem, for another day. Deflation will be the economic word of this week. There has been no shortage of ways to lose money in the stock market, but secondary sales by public companies remain one of the most reliable routes. Companies sell additional shares to fund new activities, pay off old debts, or just to have the money. But selling shares is always the best option for them, the least expensive and most effective way to raise money.

Occasionally, it's the only option for a company on the ropes. Does it make sense to be on the other side of that trade? Consider 16 secondary stock sales by Massachusetts companies that have taken place since last year. Two have broken even and three have gained ground. Two of the three winners were sold by one company, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. of Cambridge, which is in the late stages of developing a widely anticipated new treatment.

The other 1 1 have lost ground, many of them in dramatic fashion. Shares sold last February by Evergreen Solar Inc. of Marlborough are down 82 percent. Stock offered by Monotype Imaging Holdings Inc. of Woburn has lost 68 percent.

An offering last June by State Street Corp. has lost 61 percent. Two other secondary offerings by Massachusetts companies are both down 49 percent. Investors can make money occasionally when companies offer new shares for sale. But the odds are against them.

In addition, a $1.34 billion federal program to provide $40 coupons to consumers to defray the cost of the converter boxes ran out of money last month. Millions who applied for coupons were put on a waiting list. The economic stimulus package Congress passed last week contained $650 million in new funding for the program; even so, it was too late for many of those on the waiting list to get coupons and purchase boxes before today. The major Boston-area stations are waiting until June 12, though delaying the analog shutdown will cost them thousands of dollars, mostly for electricity for analog transmitters. Public broadcaster WGBH, on Channel 2, will also transmit in analog till June.

But sister station WGBX, Channel 44, may go digital much sooner, because of defective analog equipment that's too expensive to repair, a spokeswoman said. New Hampshire Public Television said its three stations will halt analog broadcasts today, "because we believe it is in the best interest of our viewers," said general manager Peter Frid. ouldn't you really rather have a Buick? GLOI slogan from the is likely to have in the future, I think GM needs only two brands in the US: Chevy and Cadillac," said John Wolkonowicz, senior automotive analyst for North America at IHS Global Insight a Waltham forecasting firm. So how does GM trim down from its current lineup of eight brands those two, plus Buick, GMC, Hummer, Pontiac, Saab, and Saturn? It won't be easy. GM acknowledges Hummer is for sale.

Saab is probably being AUTOMAKERS, Page B6 General Motors Ford Motor and Chrysler LLC were already planning massive restructuring last year, before GM and Chrysler accepted government loans in December totaling $17.4 billion. GM and Chrysler are expected to update Congress today on their turnaround plans. Part of the reorganization effort will include lopping off or transforming what are still too many brands for today's market. "In an ideal world, with the market share GM presently has and 1960s doesn't have the right ring anymore because the answer, unless you live in China or are older than 65, is "probably not." Buick is just one of the formerly iconic American car brands undergoing a life-or-death review by Detroit's Big Three automakers. Hiawatha Bray can be reached at Don't pack it in, cheap travel and vacations are out there "Right now through the end of April, there are unprecedented lows," she said.

"My suggestion is, if you're planning to travel before the end of April, book soon." But where? London, for example, can be had for $350 round-trip on Virgin from Boston, if the timing is right. And the Caribbean is suddenly the Filene's Basement of warm-weather escapes. For the most part, just focus on parts of the country or the world that are suffering the SPENDING SMART, Page B6 guru and creator of the Pauline Frommer guide books, book it on your computer, your Black-Berry, or your iPhone; anything other than by talking to another human being on the phone. "We never should book airfare over the phone anymore," she said. "Big fees." That doesn't mean avoid agencies like Liberty Travel.

It just means buy a trip the way you buy a TV: Shop around. Frommer suggested scouring websites that aggregate information, such as Kayak.com, Momondo.com, and Sidestep If there is a sliver of sunshine peeking through the storm clouds of this recession, it may be: There might never be a better time to travel. Airlines are hungry. Hotels are hungry. Restaurants are hungry.

And if you're smart about how you book, when you book, and where you go, you might just find the cheapest vacation you'll ever take. If you do nothing else when booking your next getaway, said Pauline Frommer, budget travel Steven Syre is a Globe columnist. He can be reached atsyreglobe.com. JAE C. HONGASSOCIATED PRESS RED BLUE Black GL B5 21:59 FIRST.