El Paso Times from El Paso, Texas • 16

PUt lft-A THE EL PASO TIMES. Sunday, November IMP Car tags, Cubans hurt governor Pollsters miss their mark in 'too-close-to-call' vote Election 1980 I mm mrmMW mm 1 1 ft- Jmm pi ay I AW mm MMmm MM MM MMmOk mm mm WASHINGTON (A?) The Ronald Reagan steamroller not only flattened many Democratic politicians, but also dented the reputations of the nation's polls and pollsters for failing to gauge the magnitude of the Republican victory. Most published polls just before Tuesday's election said the race between Reagan and Jimmy Carter was "too close to call," but Reagan trounced the incumbent by 10 percentage points in the actual vote. While explanations of the difference vary, what is certain is no poll correctly railed Reagan's margin. Some were closer than ethers, out none w-v on the mark.

Some pollsters say there was a last-minute surge for Reagan as Americans' frustrations boiled over on Election Day. Others say there was just a steady movement toward Reagan in the last week that some polls detected and some did not, parUy because they stopped polling too soon. Ironically, several polls put Reagan in the lead in their final surveys, but the caution painfully learnpd from years of experience with the strengths and weaknesses of polls led many to judge th? election as "too close to call." Three published national polls were conducted between the Carter-Reagan debate and the election. The poll that came the closest to the outcome was done by Louis Harris as part of the ABC News-Harris partnership. Harris' last survey, based on interviews with 1,997 likely voters on Nov.

2, put Reagan at 46 percent and Carter at 41 percent, a five-point edge. Harris found a similar margin when he put together all 16,000 interviews conducted from Oct 22. through Nov, 3. The final poll by the Gallup Organization put the race at 47 percent for Regagan and 44 percent for Carter. That was based on interviews with about 2,000 likely voters from Oct.

30 through Nov. 1. CBS News and the New York Times' final survey, based on 2,264 interviews weighted for turnout conducted Oct. 30 through Nov. 1, gave Reagan 44 percent and Carter 43 percent.

hikes in fees and his failure to keep Carter from sending the refugees to Chaffee. In Sebastian County, where Chaffee is located, and in Crawford County, which is next door, White beat Clinton by more than a 2-to-l margin. White's general attack also had appeal elsewhere in the state. In the traditional Democratic stronghold of east Arkansas, where Clinton normally would have rolled up a large margin over White, the two candidates were nearly even. White fortified his pledge of businesslike management by asserting that Clinton had failed to provide it.

As an example, White pointed to a wood-cutting program set up by Clinton to train persons while also providing firewood for low-income families. The program spent $60,000 and cut only a few cords of wood. Clinton got the program retooled and running smoothly, but the publicity about how the program first floundered hurt him. White ran the state's industrial development agency under a Democratic governor in 1975-76 During that time it had the worst job-creatiug record in its history. White blamed the recession for the problem.

Clinton said his own administration had done better during the current recession, but, even so, he declined to blame White for the poor performance in 1975-76. That was a sample of the soft approach Cl'nton took to the businessman's vigorous challenge. White said Clinton didn't realize the threat White posed until it was too late. Could Clinton have beaten White if the governor had taken a harder line earlier in the campaign? "I think he's probably asking himself that today," White said. LITTLE ROCK (AP I The Republican and conservative tide that swept the nation Tuesday ousted Gov.

Bill Clinton of Arkansas, a young star believed des tined (or greater roles in the national Democratic Party. He is the nation's youngest governor at 34, a broad-shouldered Rhodes Scholar with an infectious smile and youthful ideas. With some voters, that didn't count for much. Clinton lost by about 30.000 votes to Frank White, 47, a Little Rock businessman who had never before run for elected office, and who was given little chance of winning when he filed in the spring. Two polls showed him trailing Clinton by 12 percent and 18 percent a week before the election.

After almost two years as governor, Clinton was criticized by some as too young; by others as arrogant, Most of his aides were bearded young men, some from out of state. His wife, a lawyer, kept her maiden name and always was identified as Hillary Rodham. His director of state purchasing was a woman in her 20s. Some saw all of that as a liability in this conservative state. Clinton's 1979 legislation raising motor vehicle license fees, some of them 50 percent, piayed a big part in his downfall, as did his ties with President Carter and the Cuban refugee controversy in Arkansas.

In his concession speech Wednesday, Clinton didn't say what he thought caused his defeat, and he wouldn't answer reporters' questions about his loss. His party affiliation was not a handicap in Arkansas long a Democratic state. It was a combination of factors, notably his administration and an apparent desire by the voters for a change at most levels of government. Throughout the campaign White of- COLD WEATHER SPECIALS BILL CLINTON Arkansas governor defeated fered business-like management for state government and repeatedly denounced Clinton for the license fees, which White promised to lower, and the Cuban refugee relocation operation set up by the federal government at Fort Chaffee. White said Clinton failed to "stand up for Arkansas'' and rebuke Carter when the president, breaking a promise, sent more refugees to Arkansas so refugee centers could be closed in Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

While White hit hard on the theme of "car tags and Cubans," Clinton was on the defensive, trying to justify his lafc4iid Shopping Center 7042 AlAMDDA 77214M INANC. I WAREHOUSE 4 SHOWROOM Restraints suggested for vote projections Let Dad know A flU bis little girl mi you res All three major television networks say their projections are based on the vote in key precincts, not exit polling. Carter's aides said the president was eager to deliver his concession speech. At 8 p.m. EST (6 p.m.

MST) Carter called press secretary Jody Powell and said he didn't want to wait until the polls closed. "It's ridiculous," Powell quoted Carter as saying. "Let's go and get it over with quickly." "No, Mr. President," Powell replied. "Let's wait a little longer." At 8:15 p.m.

EST (5:15 p.m. PST), NBC News projected Reagan the winner, based on projections from stales where the polls had closed. ABC followed 90 minutes later and CBS projected Reagan's victory based on its sample precincts at 10:30 p.m. EST. At 9:50 p.m.

EST (7:50 MST), 70 minutes before some polls closed, Carter conceded. West Coast politicians and elections officials, angry that close state and local elections may have been in-lluenced when the presidency was decided early election night, are calling for sweeping changes in the way the nation votes. Defections from voting lines were widespread in western states where polls closed nearly three hours after one news organization projected Ronald Reagan's landslide victory Tuesday. And President Carter conceded more than an hour before some polls closed. Sen.

S.I. Hayakawa proposed that polls remain open from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. in states in the Eastern Time Zone from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.

in Central Time. 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. in Mountain Time, and 6 a.m. to 8 p.m.

in Pacific Time. Sen. Hark Hatfield said he planned to introduce a bill to keep election revealing results until al! polls in the nation nave closed. HL'. tM MM Epffc'.

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