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The Los Angeles Times from Los Angeles, California • 44

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Los Angeles, California
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44
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I Eos AitQdes (Times Tuesday. November 25, 1986Part IV 3 PEOPLE DOLLARS AND NONSENSE TIMES BOARD OF ECONOMISTS Don R. Conlan Election Was No Disaster for GOP Former Chief at Shaklee to Run New Fund r. i Pondering the political and economic significance of the midterm election results, I was tempted to conclude that things had not turned out so badly for the Republicans, at least relative to historical precedents. About a year ago, I noted here that in all postwar midterm elections.

Republican administrations had never lost fewer than 12 seats in the House and never less than nine seats in the Senate. Furthermore, the so-called six-year itch that had bedeviled every -i J. Gary Shansby, the controversial former chairman and chief executive of Shaklee has joined Montgomery Securities, San Francisco, to head a new $50-million venture capital fund specializing in consumer products and services. Shansby, 49, left Shaklee last December after clashing with the direct-sales vitamin company's founding family. Its patriarch, Forrest C.

Shaklee was a charis Don R. Conlan is president of Capital Strategy Research Inc. in Los Angeles. He was chief economist for the Cost of Living Council during the Nixon "You'll go far here, Bimbach." matic chiropractor who preached a gospel of nutrition and capitalism to Shaklee's evangelical sales force. Shansby injected professional man-a during his Shansby place.

The message of the body politic seemed to be that, while it would like to see the conservatism a little less doctrinaire, basically, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." That, of course, was before the twin mega-scandals that broke in Wall Street and Washington immediately after the elections. First, we were told that with the President's apparent knowledge and approval, one part of the Administration was dealing under the table with terrorists while another arm was loudly proclaiming, "Negotiate? Never!" and bombing Libya to prove the point Shortly after that, it was revealed that some major aspects of the leveraged buyout-junk bond-takeover juggernaut on Wall Street one of the major developments of the century were downright crooked. It is perfectly natural for people to suspect that not all the money that is made on Wall Street is the product of sheer analytical genius. It is another thing to have it demonstrated in such spectacular fashion. Glaring Contradictions It is also natural to think that government often says one thing and does another.

However, it is downright unsettling to have it proven so vividly and to see that, even on the inside, they don't deal straight with one another. Unfortunately, the credibility of the presidency once again is cast in shadow when its full powers may be required to hold back a possible tide of interventionist and protectionist sentiment. Chances are that people now feel they have been a bit "used." There is no way to know how far-reaching the impact may be to financial markets, the presidency or economic and political conservatism from these events. Seemingly unrelated, they could very well converge into a reaction against current laissez-faire government policies and a demand for more government involvement, not just in the capital markets and corporate takeovers but of financial institutions, airlines, telephone utilities and foreign trade, among others. There had been a smattering of evidence to suggest a rising but unfocused public suspicion about the merits of continued deregulation and, related to it, a developing but largely unexpressed interest in defining the word free, as in free markets and free trade.

Nevertheless, these sentiments were fairly subliminal and were held back largely by the President's success in promoting laissez-faire policies, the apparent ability of these policies to promote economic well-being and, I suppose, also the dazzling success stories of Wall Street. These policies may now be on the defensive for the first time in years. Unfortunately, the distortions of tax reform could generate enough weakness in the economy early next year so that there could be further doubt about current policies and institutions. Finally, the glacial pace of correction in the nation's trade and current account deficits in the context of a sluggish economy may tax the public's patience with free trade policies and send us sliding backward into protectionism. This is a special danger if the presidency is weak.

Nevertheless, it is important to bear in mind that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain fairly sound; we cannot foist our own problems on others (that's what protectionism does), and, most importantly, we cannot legislate morality. It starts at home. and chief executive of Embassy Communications. A second division, called Coca-Cola Telecommunications, will be headed by Herman Rush, currently president of Columbia Pictures Television Group.

The unit will concentrate on newer markets, such as home shopping and pay television. A third division, Merv Griffin Enterprises, will continue to produce programming for network broadcast and first-run syndication under its chairman, Merv Griffin. The fourth division, Coca-Cola Television Operations, will handle business affairs, finance, administration and planning. The unit will be headed by Brian McGrath, currently executive vice president of Columbia Pictures International Corp. -KATHRYN HARRIS LOS ANGELES COUNTY Santa Fe Springs-based El Polio Loco, a takeout, fast-food chicken chain, has named Howard Massey to the president's post, succeeding Donald L.

Pierce, who has been appointed president of the newly formed Fast-Food Restaurant Group of Denny's, which includes El Polio Loco and Win-chell's Donut Houses. Massey also has been named a corporate vice president of Denny's. He formerly was senior vice president of operations for Denny's. National Sanitary Supply, Los Angeles, named Naomi C. Dallob corporate secretary.

Lynette Prucha has been named vice president-home video and pay-television sales for Crown International Pictures, Beverly Hills. in no hurry to land a new job. Terms of his separation from Shaklee included a "golden handshake." In an interview Monday, the executive said he looked forward to being surrounded "by the bright, analytical people" of Montgomery Securities. He added: "It'll be quite different than going to Shaklee conventions." -VICTOR F.ZONANA NATION Coca-Cola Co. said Monday that it has regrouped three television companies under a newly formed organization called Coca-Cola Television and appointed Frank J.

Biondi Jr. as the new unit's chairman and chief executive. The new company encompasses Columbia Pictures Television, Embassy Communications and Merv Griffin Enterprises. Through its various holdings, Coca-Cola distributes more off-network television shows than any other company in the industry. Biondi, 41, has served as an executive vice president of Coca-Cola's entertainment business sector since January, 1985.

For the six preceding years, Biondi was an executive at Time Inc's Home Box Office, the nation's largest pay-TV company. Biondi served as HBO's chairman and chief executive before departing in 1984. Coca-Cola Television said it will operate four divisions. ColumbiaEmbassy Television is charged with creating network programming and the syndication of off-network programming, under Gary Lieberthal, currently chairman two-term President in his party's sixth year of office tended to produce especially devastating results for Republicans. For example, in 1958 and 1974, the President's party lost 47 and 48 House seats, respectively.

In that context, the Republican losses of only five House seats and eight Senate seats, coupled with their gains at the governorship level, could not be said to signal a major shift in political and economic philosophy in the land. It may also suggest that the President deserves more credit than he got for his efforts to improve the Republican results. At the same time, however, it should be noted that this was the first Republican midterm election since Harding in 1922 in which the U.S. economy was neither in nor just ending a recession. Whatever the reason, it would seem that the basic sort of hands-off, free-market approach to government economic and regulatory policy made it through the elections intact if not unbridled.

Cycles of Opinion Because it matters a great deal in economic forecasting, I had been watching for signs that might indicate whether this latest cycle of broadly based conservatism was drawing to a close. Arthur Schle-singer in his new book, "The Cycles of American History," identifies regular cyclical swings in politico-economic sentiment that tend to peak roughly every 30 years, or about once in a generation: the 1890s, the 1920s, the 1950s (and the These were the peaks of what Schlesinger calls the "private interest" phase of the cycle. While it's possible that this election may have marked such a peak, it was not at all clear from the election results. People still seemed to like what this approach had produced in terms of incomes, employment and low inflation. To be sure, there were concerns about sluggishness, import penetration and major regional discrepancies in economic well-being.

And there were worries about the health of financial institutions (as many as 150 banks are likely to fail this year, the most since the 1930s) and much puzzlement, if not outright skepticism, about what had been going on in Wall Street. Yet no one seemed to have any better ideas, and not even the Democrats were interested in getting the government reinvolved in the workings of the market tenure at Shaklee but was plagued by high executive turnover and, beginning in 1983, a falloff in sales after years of steady growth. He raised Shaklee's and his own-profile in San Francisco by contributing heavily to the arts and by spending lavishly to decorate Shaklee's headquarters tower. At Montgomery Securities, an investment banking and venture capital partnership also known for its research unit, Shansby will be a general partner as well as the managing partner of the new consumer-oriented venture fund. The fund will also invest in leveraged buyouts.

Shansby "brings an impressive level of operational, marketing and strategic planning experience to our firm," said Thomas W. Weisel, senior partner of Montgomery Securities. Weisel said the new fund "will employ the strengths of our research and other departments to strategically invest in a select group of growth enterprises." Although Shansby had angled for a high-level political appointment after leaving Shaklee, the well-connected executive had been Kt. mm "It keeps us flooded with business And costs next to nothing!" Roger Benson, President, Rescue Rooter, San Diego, California When I started my drain and sewer cleaning service out of my home in 1975, 1 didn't have much. Just some equipment and a phone.

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