The Los Angeles Times from Los Angeles, California • 12

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counters to a Soviet first strike, in addition to the great uncertainties that Moscow planners would face in ordering a surprise attack in the first place, have convinced DeLauer and the Air Force that dense pack would deter a Soviet-initiated war for 5 to 10 years. However, there are important unknowns about the feasibility of dense pack as well. Silos never have been superhardened to the degree DeLauer claims they can be, for example, and two nuclear weapons never have been exploded next to each other, simultaneously or at almost the same time, to prove that fratricidal interactions do occur. So "whether or not you accept all this as a reasonable basis for making this investment (in a $23-billion dense pack) is something everyone is looking hard at now," DeLauer said. To resolve any remaining uncertainties about dense pack survivability in the long term, DeLauer said, may require ballistic missile defense.

A defense which prevented even a few Soviet warheads from exploding would provide the necessary window for MX missiles to escape. In hopes of getting balanced outside judgment on dense pack, Defense Secretary Caspar W. Weinberger has established a special committee within the Defense Board, under Nobel Prize physicist Charles H. Townes, for intense evaluation of the scheme. Weinberger has called for all findings to reach him by Aug.

15, because he must make his own recommendation to the White House by Sept. 1. President Reagan must specify a home for MX before the congressionally imposed deadline of Dec. 1. If Congress refuses to accept dense pack, the Administration is expected to try to put the MX missiles into existing Minuteman silos.

However, Congress has already said that is not acceptable, because the MX would be just as vulnerable in those silos as Minuteman is now. Continued from First Page gram would deal a heavy, perhaps fatal, blow to the effort to close the so-called "window" that is. to end what some specialists see as the vulnerability of existing Minuleman missiles to a Soviet suprise attack, which was the stimulus for the MX originally. Already there are widespread doubts that any acceptable solution exists for the economic, political and military difficulties involved. "The cures are worse than the disease," two Harvard scholars, Albert Car-nesale and Charles Glaser, said recently.

Dr. William E. Perry, former chief of research and engineering in the Defense Department, said the dense pack scheme has the advantage of "raising real uncertainties in the minds of any attackers but will not give us, in my vifiw sufficient confidence that it can survive any attack." "It would require atmospheric nuclear testing" to achieve that confidence, said Perry, who was given a detailed briefing by Pentagon officials on the basing scheme. "I don't think we'll do that. All signs point to deep troubles for dense pack and for MX itself." Failure to close the window of vulnerability after so much hoopla about it could have large political consequences: If the United States does not deploy a new land -based missile, its European allies probably will scuttle the program to emplace modern nuclear missiles on their land.

And the broad perception that the United States had backed away from the Soviet threat could, like the advent of Sputnik, cause erosion of its support and reputation in the world, some analysts believe. Certainly the prospects for arms control agreements would plummet, they said. Dense pack is a scheme to jam 100 MX missiles into a small area, such as a triangle 4V miles on a side, with each missile one-third of a mile from its nearest neighbor, for mutual protectiori. Until now, missiles have been spread out for safety, so that an at-, tacking enemy could not destroy two silos with onewarhead. Min-utemen silos thus are spaced three to five miles apart.

Pentagon planners now argue that closely spaced MX missiles, buried in silo canisters that are su-perhardened to withstand 5 or 10 times more force than a Minuteman silo, would be less vulnerable to a surprise attack because of the "fratricide" effect they say would occur among incoming eTSirny warheads. This concept holds that the tightly huddled MX missiles would force the Soviets to fire many warheads into a small area, and that the first warheads to go off would destroy later arrivals or blow them off course, allowing up to 70 of the MXs to survive. "It appears to be dense pack or nothing at this point." a senior Air Force office admitted. "This plan is the most promising in the short term given all the factors involved but it has problems over the long haul," he said. The problems center on ways the Soviets might circumvent the fratricide effects.

Among the possible attack scenarios: The spike, in which five or six very large Soviet warheads, each yielding about 20 megatons (equal to 20 million tons of TNT), would be exploded simultaneously on dense pack to destroy all 100 MXs in a single, gigantic blow. The Soviets do not now have warheads that are big enough or have sufficient accuracy to do the job. They also lack the precise timing and fusing mechanisms to detonate several warheads simultaneouslywithin a few thousandths of a second after flying 6,000 miles in about 30 minutes, according to Pentagon research chief Richard D. DeLauer. 'Walk' From Site to Site The walk, in which the Soviets attack every other MX (or possibly every third MX) sequentially, moving in a kind of rolling barrage south to north so that arriving warheads (from the north) do not pass through the debris and radiation effects from earlier blasts.

All MXs would be destroyed in 2V4 to 3 hours in this attack. To prevent some MX missiles from flying out in retaliation during that walk, the Soviets could pin down those missiles by exploding other warheads 50 to 120 miles over the MX field, thereby creating a storm of X-rays, neutrons, intense heat more than 18 million degrees Fahrenheit and electromagnetic pulses to destroy the MXs as they rose, Air Force officers said. The Soviets would not need to undertake major development and testing efforts to mount such an attack, as they would to attempt a spike attack, DeLauer said. But there are countermeasures available against the walk. Principal among these, according to those involved in war games, would be to create a reverse "pin-down" with U.S.

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