Chicago Tribune from Chicago, Illinois • 105

(Chicago (Tribune 'Sunday, July 11, 1976 staieAuios Classified Marketplace Section12 Rental Guide Ik Tied to economy Housing boom forecast by 1980 Occupancy rate inches up in Loop offices Real Estate ill 'r't rl flirt in OWi 3 Chicago's li-HnPlS if vacant downtown iipMH I office space i ffimm jjjj Per cent of total space vacant vf 1972 73 74 75 76 I III pf-'M. I Source; Building Managers' Association ol Chicago. 11 iv 1 iTf anmraasBB tl III 1 "The price of a house in relation to peoples' income is not higher now than it was in the late '60s," he said. In a breakdown, Shilling is predicting 2.5 million of the 3.5 million starts in 1980 will be single-family homes, largely because the majority of postwar babies will have reached the age at which they both need and can afford to buy them. Multi-family units, both condominiums and apartments, should account for the remaining 1 million starts, he said.

FOR HIS PREDICTIONS to come true. Shilling emphasized that "everything has to fit." Inflation must slow and government and business spending must be moderate. But Michael Sumichrast, cnief economist for the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), says' flatly, "there's absolutely no way" the 3.5 million starts will come to pass. Starts are improving and the NAHB sees 1.58 million this year and 1.74 million in 1977. But while some of the factors Shilling cited will aid home building's revival, Sumichrast says 3.5 million starts by 1980 is inconceivable.

"It's fairly irresponsible (even) to talk in terms of 2 million," he declared. PIERRE RINFRET, A noted New York economist, wrote recently that "the odds are against housing starts topping the 2 million annual figure during the rest of this decade." He contends that housing is a "laggard area" in the economy for five reasons. First, mortgage rates continue to put potential buyers out of the home market, he says. Second, housing costs too much, with the current average price of a new home at about $46,000 compared to $27,300 five years ago. Third, the price of housing in fact has risen faster than the aver-, age worker's income.

Rinfret said that in early 1971, the average manufacturing worker had to labor for 251 weeks to buy an average-price new home. Five years later, it took-303 weeks' pay. Fourth, Rinfret said, population growth and family formations are slowing Population growth, for example, has gone from a 1.5 per cent a year rate 15 years ago to about .7 per cent a year now. Finally, demand for vacation homes which accounted for one of three new housing starts in 1972-73 by one estimate has "dried up," according to Rinfret. Tribune Graphics office space downtown, some observers result in renewed development.

THE PERCENTAGE of vacant space in downtown office buildings finally has inched down alUv months of rising. 'J'he latest vacancy factor 12.89 per cent of total office space, according to a recently released spring survey by the Building Managers Association of Chicago represents a drop from the level recorded by BMA in a survey last fall when it reached 13.67 per cent, the highest in more than 30 years. Viewed in historical terms, however, the decrease in vacancy is a modest one. In the early 1970s, downtown had a vacancy facter well under 10 per cent A FEW MONTHS ago. some office building managers reported a dramatic turnaround in the market.

They said that companies that had not been interested in moving to new quarters or expanding during the recession were looking for office space. However, one office market observer believes they exaggerated the upturn, adding that current figures "are all that good." An increase in inquiries about space by companies could indicate future deals, the observer said, and that might mean improvement in the downtown occupancy level by the time BMA issues its next report in the fall. The latest survey looked at 169 office buildings with 59.3 million square feet of the downtown total of roughly 200 structures with 65 million square feet. The buildings surveyed had 7.6 million square 'eet sitting vacant. That does not include 1.95 million feet in the recently opened 444 N.

Michigan Avenue Building and the Apparel Center, under construction just west of the Merchandise Mart. DESPITE THE historically large slug of vacant space, Marsha Cohen, a leasing specialist with Metropolitan Structures, believes the supply of quality office space in desirable buildings is in short supply. "For the most part, I would say that-people with new buildings are sitting back grinning from ear to ear," she said. "I'd say there are a lot of people interested in space, a 'lot of people looking to move. "The problem really is that now there's The 1976 Corvette (bottom) resembles Despite the large amount of vacant contend that strong demand should le Hotel with an eye toward either refurbishing it and converting it into an office building or tearing it down and construct-ing a new office high-rise.

They are wagering that there will be demand from prospective tenants to lure financing. "I am betting brokers are going to bring me letters of intent (to rent space)," Rubenstein said, "so I can take them to a lender and say, 'OK, I'm not smoking funny cigarets. Here are the people. Call them and satisfy MEANWHILE, a BMA survey of 182 Once-svelte T-Bird will slim down for new model but not by much By Gary Washburn Real Estate Editor AS PREDICTIONS ABOUT the housing industry go, A. Gary Shilling's is a stunner.

Even he admits, "The first reaction is one of shock and disbelief." Shilling says he's looking for 3.5 million new housing starts in the United States by 1980. The projection is astonishing when one realizes that starts last year totaled about 1.1 million and 2 million starts in a single year is considered a boom in the home building industry. Shilling is no sidewalk superintendent prognosticator, however. He is senior vice president and chief economist for the New York stock brokerage firm of White, Weid Co. "FIRST OF ALL," Shilling says, the prediction is "based on our assumptions of how the economy is going to look.

Housing is a very fragile animal if the funds aren't there, if the circumstances aren't right, housing is not going to make it." But he foresees a set of conditions emerging that could mean a bonanza for home builders. He believes that government will hold down its spending and grow more slowly than the economy. At the same time, businessmen, whose memories of the recession remain fresh, will be conservative in their borrowing and spending to build up inventories and purchase equipment, Shilling believes. Thus, with government and business demand for capital at a there should be huge amounts of money available for housing. IN THE LAST decade.

Shilling said real income of American families has been "flat to declining," but in the next few years he believes "income will be growing" and at the same time, "we think inflation will settle, in at a two or per cent annual rate." With the drop in inflation, there should: be a drop in mortgage rates, Shilling theorizes, and that also will promote the purchase of homes. He's looking for rates in the 7 per cent to 71j per cent range by 1980. Much has been written about rising home prices excluding buyers from the market, but Shilling says high mortgage interest rates, along with increased maintenance and operating costs, are the real culprits. mediate proportions. It eventually was whittled down to its current subcompact size and was called the Mustang II.

THE ORIGINAL T-BIRD was built on a 102-inch wheelbase, was 175 inches long overall, was powered by a 292-cubic-inch V-8. It weighed 3,200 pounds and listed for $2,695. The 1976 version is built on a 120.4 inch wheelbase, is 225.7 inches long, powered by a 460-cubic-inch V-8, weighs 5,000 pounds, and lists for $7,790. The 1977 model will be "smaller" than, the 1976 model, -but still is a distant relative of the '55 model. It will be.

built on a 114-inch wheelbase and measure 216 inches long. It will have a 302-cubic-inch CB users need THE CHICAGO Motor Club is warning tourists who want to operate citizens band radios on their travels in Mexico and Canada that they.must first obtain a permit. Mexico-bound travelers should write to the Secretaria de Communicaciones, Mexico Ctiy, D.F. for permit information. Those headed for Canada must obtain a permit from -a regional office of the Canadian Department of Communications.

United States citizens leaving the no place to go," Miss Cohen said. How could there be a shortage of space when there is so much vacant? Miss Cohen says the brunt of available space is in a few newer buildings that, for one reason or another, have had problems, and in buildings that are "old, inefficient, and ill-run." "The good buildings are flying," she said. "The bad ones are dying." DEVELOPER Albert Rubenstein agrees about a lack of good office "Brokers we're in contact with claim they can't find' the landlords to do business with," he said. "Landlords have little or no product downtown and broker? are doing a tremendous amount of. work in suburbia." Rubenstein is convinced that some companies are moving from the Loop to the suburbs, not necessarily because they want to leave the ci but because they can't find adequate quarters.

He contends that the downtown area, which he says should have a 5 to 10 per cent vacancy factor to accommodate expansion of existing tenants, could use between 3 million and 4 million square feet of new office space a year to satisfy demand and take up the slack created by demolition of old buildings. Office building developers complain that a major reason new office skyscrapers are not being built downtown is that cautious lenders are spooked by the high overall vacancy figure and use stringent standards in financing anything new. "We've been ready, willing, and able to start a new building at Washington and Wacker for the last three years," Rubenstein declared. MAJOR institutional lenders absolutely refuse to make commitments in, any urban center, including Chicago, unless the developer has 50 to 60 per cent of his project preleased. That has been a total impossibility in any city I've seen except New York in its heyday." Rubenstein and a partner, Philip Teinowitz, recently purchased the La Sal- the 1953 orignial in name only.

In 1963 the Sting Ray line appeared as did hidden headlamps up front and the split window in the rear of the coupe. That styling feature was later borrowed and called the boattail rear end on the Buick Riviera. Buick was unsuccessful with it. Of course, Buick has not been the only one to "borrow" features from the 'Vette. In 1971 newsmen gathered in Burlington, as the new American Motors Javelin was introduced at AMC's proving ground.

THERE WERE lots of oohs and ahhs over the car, especially the "unique" front fender treatment. Someone finally asked another reporter, "What do you call those blistered fenders?" The terse reply was, "Call them 'Vette-like." In 1976 the two-passenger 'Vette resembles the original in name only, though the car still turns as many heads as any new mass-produced car coming out of Detroit. In 1977 there is very little change except for a few more optional goodies. Since 1953, Chevrolet has sold 463,338 Corvettes. The model year record was 40,607 in 1975.

The car is in such demand advertising is a rarity except by dealers trying to scout up extras from remote dealerships. CHEVROLET says the typical buyer is a married male, 28 years of age who earns more than $19,000 a year, has had some college training, is a professional man, and lives in a small town or rural city. The majority of buyers come from Texas, followed by Ohio, Iowa, and Illinois. The primary reasons given for buying the car is styling, the least important consideration is price, which on the 1976 model starts at $7,605, or about double the $3,513 for the 1953 original. suburban buildings shows a vacancy factor of 13.47 per cent.

That compares with 12.93 per cent a year ago. Areas with vacancies of less than 10 per cent, according to the survey, include the Lincoln-Peterson Avenues-North Shore area, Edens Corridor-North Tri-State Tollway area, and DuPage County excluding Oak Brook. Those with 20 to 30 per cent vacancies include Northwest Cook County, Kane County (based on a sample of four buildings), and the metropolitan area's southern sector. Autos seats. After overdrive or automatic transmission and other options were added, the cars sold for $3,200 to $4,000.

Refinements and improvements, but mostly size and weight changes, followed. The car in 1955 swelled to 5,046 pounds in 1976. In 1958 a four-passenger model was added and some purists still argue that was the end of the true Bird; in 1960 a convertible appeared (and disappeared in 1962); in 1961 the squared off Bird was rounded off, touching off more squabbling among purists; in 1964 the squared off look returned; and in 1970 a four-door body style was added. The T-Bird has grown so much it has shared the same body with the Continental since 1969. WHEN PEOPLE SEE the new 1977, many will wish Ford had returned to the classic T-Bird dimensions.

Actually Ford once almost did. Lee A. Iacocca. now president but then General manager of the Ford Division, haa that in mind in the early '60s when he sought to mate the old T-Bird body on a Falcon frame. A running prototype was built.

But Ford decided against it. Instead in 1965 the automaker came out with a new small car, called the Mustang, a car credited to Iacocca. Ironically, that car grew in size, too, until it swelled to inter ffefo Corvette 'look' changed, but stlying still sleek By James Mateja OBESE IS NOT best. At least that's what Ford Motor Co. has decided in trimming the Thunderbird down to an intermediate-size luxury car for 1977.

The original T-Bird appeared as a sleek, two-seat luxury car in 1955 and won recognition as a classic. But that was $5,000 and 1,100 pounds ago. Ford obviously had no idea the car would become such a bulky model when plans for a small sports car were first conceived in 1952. There were enough troubles getting the car to market much less worrying about the countless others that would follow in the next 22 years. ACCORDING TO FORD archives, much of the credit for producing the car goes to Lewis Crusoe, a Ford vice president and general manager.

Crusoe wanted a sports car for the glamour, prestige, and publicity it would bring the company, and the new spirit it would inject into the firm that had survived the turmoil of the '40s. In 1952 plans for a sports car were approved. The design was on paper and engineers and stylists were arguing over it (the engineers wanted to shorten the standard Ford and call it a sports model) when Ford learned that Chevrolet was working on a new sports car the Corvette. IN JANUARY. 1953, General Motors Corp.

unveiled the Corvette at its Motora-ma display in New York. Sensing Chevy would soon put it into production, Ford in February began a crash program on its unnamed sports model. Clay models were worked up and the' Aston Martin, Ferrari, Nash-Healey, and Jaquar XK-120 were brought in for comparative purposes. By the summer of 1953 the car was ready for production. Instead of a sports car, it was a little luxury model.

A removable hardtop had replaced the proposed canvas soft top. Despite the rush to get the car ready, the decision to begin production was delayed. THEN CRUSOE visited the Paris Auto Show. Liking what he saw among the European models, he decided to go with the car. A trans-Atlantic phone call put the project in gear.

The car wouldappear in the fall of 1954 as a 1955 model. All it needed was a name. Early ones that were scrapped were Sportsman and Sportliner. Others were Runabout, Arcturus, Savile, El Tigre, Coronado, Road Runner, and Thunderbird. Thunderbird won out, though early press photos carried the name Fairlane which hadn't been used yet by Ford.

The name selection didn't make G.M. happy. It had been working on an experimental turbine car called Thunderbird and had painted a Thunderbird symbol on it. The symbol was still there when the car was unveiled in January, 1955, as the Firebird. THE FIRST Thunderbird was built on Sept.

9, 1954. and the car went on sale on Oct. 22. The base price of $2,695 included clock, tachometer, and power. The evolution of Ford's Thunderbird: (top from left) The origional 1955 T-Bird and the four-passenger 1958 model, (bottom from left) the rounded 1961.

model and this year's version, and (left) the pared-down 1977 model. V-8, weigh 4,300 pounds, and list for $5,000. Offered as optional equipment will be 351- and 400-cubic-inch engines. THE CAR WILL be built in Chicago only at Ford's Torrence Avenue plant. Annual production has been set at 270,000 units to keep pace with the Chevrolet Monte Carlo, Pontiac Grand Prix, and Chrysler Cordoba.

Ford believes it will have enough top end luxury models in the restyled Continental, new Mark and Versailles (a larger and dolled up Monarch due out next spring) to free the T-Bird to compete in the growing luxury intermediate segment, a task the Torino Elite has failed at. foreign permit country can get further information on CB restrictions in foreign lands by contacting the Federal Communications Commission, Washington, D.C. 20554. Touching on another matter, the motor reported that the Canadian Minister of Manpower and Immigration has sought to clarify policies concerning American visitors. U.S.

tourists do not have to secure passports to enter the country, he said. The motor club advises, however, that travelers should have identification, such as voter card or birth certificate. THE CHEVROLET Corvette, the car that prompted Ford Motor Co. to rush its Thunderbird into production, has remained a sleek two-passenger sports car while the T-Bird added bulk to its diet. The 'Vette went into production in the fall of 1953 billed as the first true American sports car.

It also was the first fiber glass body production model. At one time Chevrolet considered calling it the Corvair. If the T-Bird had been named Edsel, who knows? The 'Vette has undergone a series of styling and engineering changes since 1953. While Chevrolet says the changes have been gradual, they certainly have been dramatic as the photographs show. SOME OF THE changes angered the purists who, as with the T-Bird, wanted the original left alone.

In 1958, for example, the plain exterior was spruced up with glitter, four headlights replaced the two, and the fender and door were scooped. Sunday Tribune Classified Guide Real Estate and Rental Guide -Section 12 page 2 Mid-America Job Guide -Section 12, page 38 Auto Mart Section 12, page 58 Auction Mart -Sec 2, pages 13-14 Other classified advertising including Sports Mart is in back pages of Sports Sect. 3 Classified Index Sports Section 3, page 20.