Detroit Free Press from Detroit, Michigan • 16

16A The Detroit News Sunday, February 10, jooi Oil We replace windows all winter long! Beautify the home you love with beautiful, new, energy-efficient windows from Renewal by Andersen Let us show you how easy replacing your windows and patio doors can be. Window and patio door replacement; from a company you can trust. Associated Press A Palestinian demonstrator on Friday stares at an Israeli army tank during small clashes with Israeli forces near Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's headquarters in the West Bank town of Ramallah. ARAFAT Continued from Page 13A There are still many in Israel, such as Foreign Minister Shimon Peres and the Israeli military Intelligence, who insist conditions would be far worse without Arafat But many more Israelis now think it may be time for Arafat to leave office. Werner J.

Dannhauser, a professor of political science at Michigan State University, who spent the last year in Jerusalem, argues that Arafat's departure won't improve the situation for Israel, but will clarify it. "Arafat is like static," muses Dannhauser. "It has become impossible to tell to what extent he is unable, and to what extent he is unwilling, to contain the violence." If Hamas or some other militants did replace Arafat, he says, at least Israel would know what it is up against. Quiet Palestinian revolt Arafat's presence creates a dilemma for Palestinians as well. Israelis, especially hard-liners such as Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have long argued that there is no point in making concessions to a man who cannot obtain any from his own people.

But with Arafat at the helm, Palestinians have difficulty gauging what concessions they should make. For instance, one of the central aspirations of the Palestinian nationalist movement is to obtain the rinht of return i i I I I i 14 I 1 "Arafat is like static. It has become impossible to tell to what extent he is unable, and to what extent he is unwilling, to contain the violence." Werner J. Dannhauser Michigan Stale Universtily ms. 1 CW few people close to Arafat have suggested that he is thinking of leading a peaceful demonstration to Jerusalem.

Israel needs to hold back Nearly all commentators, Palestinian or Israeli agree that Israel will have to play its hand very carefully and allow the political process to work itself out in Palestine for the situation to improve. Khalidi, the University of Chicago professor who considers himself one of Arafat's harshest critics, warns that any attempt by Israel to depose Arafat or impose a government on the Palestinians will cause them to explode. Makovsky of the Near East Institute agrees. Israel's decision to withdraw from the peace talks and polidcally marginalize Arafat may well have helped drive home the bankruptcy of his political games to his people, he notes. "But, in the end, only Palestinians can decide who their leaders are," Makovsky says.

The lesson of Israel's disastrous attempt to install a Christian government in Beirut after the Lebanon invasion in the early 1980s, according to Makovsky, was that such meddling almost always backfires. Even Israel's endorsement of an Arafat alternative would be a kiss of death for that person, he says. Israel's effusive praise of Arafat's Jerusalem ambassador Nusseibeh, following his statement about the need to compromise on the right to return, has already killed his political prospects. It will not be easy for Israel to maintain a hands-off policy if the violence against it continues. But short of praying for Arafat's early demise, both Israelis and Palestinians will need a good measure of Arafat's tenacity if they are ever going to get rid of him, Shikha Dalmia can be reached at sdalmiadetnews.com and (313) 222-2297.

Write letters to lettersdetnews.com. re casual Univerity of Chicago professor who was a negotiator from the Palestinian side till 1993, there are many Palestinians who venerate Arafat as the father of their independence movement and will stick with him no matter what. Shikaki the Ramallah pollster, does not want Arafat gone for fear that this will cause the Palestinian Authority to collapse and pave the way for an extremist take over. "Those who are not part of the intifada," he says, "will find it very hard to find a place for themselves in the new government." Still a whiff of fatalism about Arafat is creeping into the Arab world. The Observer, a British newspaper, recently noted that Arab television stations have begun talking about Arafat as if he is on his way out.

Arafat himself senses his aura fading, which is why, in a last-ditch attempt to restore his relevancy, he last week wrote a commentary in the New York Times desperately urging Israel to restart peace talks. Alternatives to Arafat Internally, Arafat's staunch loyalists in the Palestinian Authority, called the old guard, are quietly voicing impatience at his indecisive and risk-averse behavior during the peace negotiations with Call for a free in-home consultation or for the location nearest you. (888) 537-3639 BY ANDERSEN window replacement www. renewalbyandersen.com 'Offer valid January 6th February 16th, 2002. Not valid with other offers or prior purchases.

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tered trademarks or Andersen Corporation. All other marks where denoted are marks ot Andersen Corporation. 2001 Andersen Corporation. All rights reserved. i of Palestinian refugees who were kicked out of their homes by Israelis in the 1948 war.

But Khalidi Shikaki, a professor of political science who polls Palestinian opinion from his research center in Ramallah, argues that Palestinians are more flexible on this issue than it appears. Palestinians may well settle for a right of return just into a new Palestinian state and not into Israel proper, he says, if they receive all of Gaza and 95 percent of a contiguous strip of the West Bank. This would require Israel to dismantle its Jewish settlements in far-flung areas of the West Bank and concentrate them into three blocks. Barring that, Shikaki believes, the only other real sticking point would be the fate of Jerusalem. But Palestinians have little confidence that Arafat would cut the right deal because he's already burned them once.

After Israel returned parts of the West Bank and Gaza to Arafat following the 1993 Oslo accords, Palestinians hoped they would finally have a free state with a flourishing economy. But Arafat has created instead a chaotic and authoritarian entity that is fast slipping into an economic abyss. Corruption reaches the highest ranks of the Palestinian Authority, whose members are in cahoots with Arafat's cronies in die al-Fatah, the political organization that Arafat founded. They are all mostly outsiders who accompanied Arafat when he returned from exile in Tunisia. Although Arafat is not regarded as corrupt, al-Fatah and PA functionaries run the country like their private fief-dom.

They have enriched themselves on the steady stream of development dollars that the international community keeps releasing into the Palestinian economy. Meanwhile, the original inhabitants of the West Bank and Gaza have seen their living standards plummet since Israel's partial withdrawal from their territories. In addition, the rule of law is nonexistent. Courts barely function, revenge killings by rival clans are common and Arafat thwarted full democracy by refusing to hold elections again. According to Shikaki, it is hard to overestimate the disillusionment this has created against Arafat and his peace process, especially among the young and college educated.

The intifada is as much a result of pent-up frustration against Arafat's misrule and corruption as against Israel, he says. Concurring with Shikaki is Danny Rubinstein, a commentator for the Israeli newspaper, Ha'aretz. "Sometime in the future," he recently wrote, "a research paper will likely come to the conclusion that one of the primary reasons for the collapse of the peace process was the chronic and utter havoc that reigned supreme in the Palestinian regime." Arafat keeps surviving Despite this emerging consensus, there is no obvious path, short of a natural death (he's pushing 80), to Arafat's departure. David Makovsky, a senior fellow at the pro-Israel Washington Institute for Near East Policy, points out that Arafat controls 40,000 security forces which makes it extremely hard for internal militants to challenge him. Meanwhile, his refusal to allow full democracy has stripped Palestinians of any political way to remove him.

But the main reason why Arafat has survived this long quite simply is that he is no one's worst nightmare: Nearly every political faction in Palestine can imagine a worse alternative than Arafat. I lamas and other militants fear someone who may be tougher on them; the moderates fear someone more militant than him. His "live and let live" strategy has ingeniously removed the incentive for anyone to oust him. In addition, notes Rashid Khiladl a Israel. Sari Nusseibeh, Arafat's de facto ambassador in Jerusalem and a professor, has even openly criticized Arafat for insisting on the right of Palestinian refugees to return to Israel This subverts the principle of a two-state solutioa he has said.

Other moderates in this group who are unhappy with Arafat and could possibly replace him include Ahmad Qiirie, the speaker of the I louse and one of the three people with whom Sharon recently resumed negotiations; and Mahmud Abbas, a top functionary in the Palestinian Liberation Organization, who is regarded as the second strongest Palestinian politiciaa The young guard, which consists of local West Bank and Gaza politicians, also is becoming disenchanted with Arafat's authoritarian government. They do not all favor negotiations with Israel to achieve statehood. But their main gripe is with Arafat's domestic ineptitude. They are impatient for democracy and clean government. One of the most important contenders among them is Marwan Barghourt, the head of Arafat's armed militia, Tanzim.

But the clearest sign yet that the frozen Palestinian political landscape is beginning to thaw is a few-month-old movement called the Secular Alliance. Composed of prominent domestic and overseas intellectuals and activists, it has the twin goals of reforming the Palestinian government and using nonviolent resistance to achieve full independence from IsraeL The movement consists of luminaries such as I lanan Ashrawi, the international voice of the Palestinian people, and Edward Said, a Columbia University professor and activist. Despite this, says Ahmed Bouzid, an Algerian software designer who helped found the Philadelphia-based Palestine Media Watch, the Secular Alliance expresses the combined disgust that ordinary Palestinians feel at the Palestinian Authority and the terror tactics of the militants. Said himself has pointed out that Arafat and his Islamist opponents together get somewhere between 40 to 45 percent approval among Palestinians. "This means that a silent majority of Palestinians is neither for the Authority's misplaced trust in Oslo (or for its lawless regime of corruption and repression), nor for I lamas's violence," Said says.

It won't be easy for the Secular Alliance to force out Arafat, Bouzid admits. But his hope is that the moral power of the movement will at least force Arafat to mend his ways and adopt some of their strategies. There is some evidence that Bouzid may be right: A 5 Comerica Home Equity Loan Now you can get for as low as $87 a month. That's money you can really live with to pay off bills, cover tuition costs, or just do something nice for your family. Live more.

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