Florida Today from Cocoa, Florida • 3

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2008 3A; FLORIDATODAY WATCHING THE TROPICS Hurricane set to lash Havana today jentj FLEE, from 1A OUUUl Itl. brace for Ike's rain Destroyed. Ri- cardo Rafael, 15, collects debris Monday from his family's home that was destroyed by Hurricane Ike on Grand Turk Island in the Turks and Caicos islands. boom, Much of eastern Cuba was without electricity and phone service was spotty. The road between Santiago and Guantanamo was cut when a reservoir overflowed.

By Monday afternoon, Ike had moved just offshore, giving it fuel to maintain its strength over Cuba, said Felix Garcia, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. "It's over warm waters," Garcia said. "It can definitely maintain its strength right now, and when it's out of Cuba it has the potential to BY JIM ASH FLORIDATODAY TALLAHASSEE Hurricane warnings for the Keys were dropped Monday, but Gov. Charlie Crist still urged residents there to brace for tropical storm condi-' It was a Category 1 storm Monday afternoon, but forecasters expected it to strengthen again before hitting Louisiana or Texas this weekend. "This critter was angry, really angry," Delia Oliveras, 64, said in the central city of Camaguey.

Winds tore the roof from the living room where her family was huddled, and they fled to a covered patio. "We have seen hurricanes, but never as big as this." Cuba, which has carried out well-executed evacuations over the years, ordered 1.2 million people to seek safety with friends and relatives or at government shelters, state television reported. In Havana, where the hurricane was expected to unleash heavy winds and rain by this morning, r- r.y' "1 it -nr i A 1 AP become a lot stronger. Ike had maximum sustained winds of 100 mph on Monday afternoon, and was centered 80 miles west of Camaguey. Cuban state television reported widespread rainfall of more than 4 inches, with more than 8 inches in some places.

State television said officials had taken measures to protect thousands of tourists at vulner tions as an erratic Ike swept acrossCubawithlOOmphwinds. "I urge all Floridians to prepare in the next few days," he said. "Hurricane Ike is a dangerous storm that we all should take serf- -ously." Monday evening, Dee's winds diminished as it passed over land. It is expected to head into the Gulf ofMexicobytonight. National Hurricane Center forecaster Jamie Rhome said in able seaside hotels, including about 10,000 foreigners at the Va- said Luis Torres, president of the Civil Defense Council in Guanta-namo province.

Falling utility poles crushed cars parked along narrow streets in Camaguey and the roaring wind transformed buildings of stone and brick into piles of rubble. Colonial columns were toppled and the ornate sculptures on the roofs of centuries-old buildings were smashed in the city, a UNESCO world heritage site. "I have never seen anything like it in my life. So much force is terrifying," said Olga Alvarez, 70, huddling in her Camaguey living room with her husband and teenage grandson. "We barely slept last night.

It was just 'boom, Gustav tore across western Cuba as a monstrous Category 4 hurricane on Aug. 30, damaging 100,000 homes and causing billions of dollars in damage. But no deaths were reported, thanks to mandatory evacuations of at least 250,000 people. There were no immediate reports Monday of deaths from Ike, despite storm-whipped waves that crashed into five-story apartment buildings, hurling heavy spray over their rooftops, and winds that uprooted trees. More than 1,000 homes were damaged, including 300 destroyed, when Ike first made landfall in Cuba in the easternmost coastal city of Baracoa, seaside Malecon promenade where youths hang out at night, businesses were being shut down.

Nancy Nazal, who lives on the second floor of a high-rise apartment building overlooking the ocean, said authorities had told her to be prepared to evacuate and she was: "The truth is, we are scared "she said. Evacuations are not mandatory in Cuba except for pregnant women and small children. But in an authoritarian state, few people would think to ignore the government's advice and state news media make an example of the few who pay the ultimate price whenthey fail to evacuate. an evening advisory that Ike could slow its forward progress once in the Gulf. Division of Emergency Man- agement Director Craig Fugate on Monday morning urged resi- dents to stay tuned to weather ra- dios and listen for updates from the National Weather Service in Key West.

evacuations began in earnest late Monday afternoon. "I feel safe here, above all for my granddaughters who are the most important thing in my life," said Marta Molas, who evacuated with seven relatives from a marginal neighborhood. "They take good care of us, we have television and food. Right now we are watching TV to see where Ike is and when the electricity goes out we have a radio." The government closed schools and government offices in the capital as people reinforced windows with wood, removed plants from balconies and formed long lines at bakeries. Along the radero resort, east of Havana.

A few street signs were toppled at the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay in southeast Cuba and power went out temporarily in some residential areas, Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Robert Lamb said. But no injuries were reported, and the military said cells containing detainees about 255 men suspected of links to the Taliban and al-Qaida are hurricane-proof. Because Ike drenching rams and wind gusts extend up to 175 miles from its center, all of Central Florida, from the Interstate 4 corridor south, can expect heavy downpours and possible flooding in the next few days, state Meteorologist Ben Nelson said. Ike could dump between 1 and 3 inches of rain on Central and Warming fuels stronger storms, study shows serve the increasing trends in in all regions where tropical cy South Florida and exacerbate flooding conditions that still exist in Southwest Florida from Tropi- fore 1997, when there weren't as many satellites watching the storms, and the way the scientists used the data for the most extreme winds.

Additionally, Landsea said the Atlantic is in a multi-decade period of heightened hurricane activity due to natural climatic cycles. The current active era began inthemid-'90s. storm intensity that both the theory and models say should be there." National Hurricane Center scientist Christopher Landsea, who has questioned the link between a warming world and a rise in the number and intensity of hurricanes, said that while the paper's statistical methodology is excellent, he doubts its conclusion because he thinks the data are flawed. He questions, for instance, the cal Storm Fay, Nelson said. "We have millions of Floridians who could be affected by Hurricane Ike," Nelson said.

"Ike is going to pump a lot of Atlantic moisture into the state." Crist said he was not worried about storm fatigue or calling an evacuation of the Keys too early. "Welostl5ofourfellowFlorid-1 ians from Tropical Storm Fay," Crist said. "You have to strike a 3 the strongest storms are getting stronger, especially over the Atlantic and Indian oceans. Tropical cyclones are the umbrella term for hurricanes (in the Atlantic and East Pacific), typhoons (in the West Pacific) and cyclones (in the Indian). "As seas warm, the ocean has more energy that can be converted to tropical cyclone wind," explained James Eisner, a Florida State professor of geography and the study's lead author.

Eisner's team found wind speeds for the strongest hurricanes rose from an average 140 mph in 1981 to 156 mph in 2006, while the average global sea-surface temperature as measured BYDOYLERICE USATODAY The strongest Atlantic hurricanes have become more intense due to global warming in the past 25 years, says a study in the current edition of the journal Nature. The findings add fuel to the simmering argument in the meteorological community about the Earth's changing climate and its relationship to the power of tropical systems worldwide. Scientists from Florida State University and the University of Wisconsin-Madison analyzed satellite data from nearly 2,000 tropical cyclones around the world from 1981 to 2006 and found that clones form increased from 82.8 degrees to 83.3 degrees during those 25 years. The authors calculated that this increase in ocean temperature results in a 31 percent increase in the global frequency of strong cyclones, from 13 to 17 peryear. "By creating a better, more consistent historical data set, we've been able to weed out quality issues that introduce a lot of uncertainty," said research scientist James Kossin of the University of Wisconsin.

"Then, by looking only at the strongest tropical cyclones, where the relationship between storms and climate is most pronounced, we are able to ob "This current paper cannot address this cyclic variability for the Atlantic, as it starts with data in data for Indian Ocean storms be I 'iajjiiit1 lMH.nmaM iMlli JltfMi' Preparing to help. Jose Cruz carries a box of diapers at the Democracy Movement stock depot in Miami for the victims of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike in Cuba. AP 'imp fc.n. Iir ii in Floridians struggle to help a -a a -i With communist Cuba, the r- aw mivA i U.S. government severely limits what can be sent and who can send it.

The Cuban government ONLY LESSER VALUE also restricts who and what can come in and often takes a per SHOP TODAY A centage of the monetary aid it U) 10AM-9PM does allow. Floridians stepped up aid to Haiti in the spring when food and fuel prices spiked and many there turned to cookies made of dirt to ASSOCIATED PRESS MIAMI South Florida's large Cuban-American and Haitian communities struggled with political and logistical hurdles Monday to send aid to loved ones in the two Caribbean nations bat-teredby Hurricane Ike. Nonprofit groups and individuals said they are collecting money and goods, but they are stymied. Communication to the countries has been limited, making it difficult for the communities to assess what's needed and for expatriates to know whether their relatives are safe. Getting help to the countries is a challenge for different reasons.

Haiti, the Western Hemisphere's poorest country, is plagued by poor roads and stanch their hunger. The coun try's efforts to reform its customs system added to a backup of aid distribution and prompted some 51 shippers to stop going there. In the north, only one shipping company is docking at the port of Cap-Haitien and is so backed up it buy the SOfa Ioveseat50off' has no massive shipping cargo containers available, said Tony ivu. mm Butternut Sofa Marcelli. whose company coordi' VJxJyJ nates Haitian aid for more than in i 100 Florida J.

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