The Journal Times from Racine, Wisconsin • 28

fraltow recess5omi weak irecdweiry predicted Massive government borrowing sparked a record-setting eight years of economic growth. The resounding popularity of the Iteagan administration was proof that Americans, weary of the 1970s' inflation and recessions, liked what they saw. "The economic cycle is still there, but the reaction of government is different," says Warwick J. McKibbin, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. "A lot of the growth in the United States was pure pump priming." The Bush administration's policies, closely modeled on Reaganomics, won't change the pattern.

"Economic growth during the 1990s is likely to be slower than in previous decades, but better balanced than at any time since the 1960s," says Bruce Steinberg, economic analyst for Merrill Lynch. He predicts that the economy will grow just 2.3 percent annually in the 1990s. That's the slowest rate since the 1930s. By Gregg Field Knight-Ridder Newt Service The good news: the recession will probably be shallow. The bad news: so will the recovery.

Just as the country limped into a recession, it will crawl weakly out of the downturn. Some economists are using the line: "What l( they gave a recovery and nobody came?" It's a marked departure from past recessions, and perhaps signals a major shift in the American economy, say economists. Since World War II, the United States economy typically would enjoy several years of heavy growth. Then it would collapse into recessions some of them painfully steep. About 11 months later, the economy would roar back.

The boombust cycle produced impressive growth over the long haul. But it also wreaked chaos in the form of layoffs, inflation and other ills. The new cycle, in comparison, seems less severe. Expansions may last longer, and recessions may not be as deep. But there are some drawbacks.

Growth Is weaker. The recovery is looking anemic. And massive federal deficits are a big reason the cycle is smoothing out. That debt will have to be paid by future generations. "What you used to get was like a 24-hour virus, where you felt just awful but soon recovered," says Jorge Salazar, economics professor at Florida International University.

"What we have now is more like a longstanding malady that doesn't hurt as much while you have it. But you don't feel that much better once you're over it." Economists forthrightly admit that they haven't figured out everything about why the traditional business cycle seems to have changed. But there's increasing evidence that the Reagan administration's response to the 1982 recession set the changes in motion. tries autos, steel and railroads domi. nated American industry.

The popular saying was, "What's good for General Motors is good for the country." That's not true any longer. Automotive production is Just 1.3 percent of the economy, according to the Commerce Department. And some Important industries such as computers and biotechnology didn't even exist 40 years ago. Meanwhile, 'areas such as tourism and retail have mushroomed in size and become economic powers in their own right. Between 1977 and 1988, for instance, retail's share of the economy grew by almost a full percentage point, according to the Commerce Department.

Retail store sales alone accounted for a third of last year's GNP, the department says. This diversity creates strength. But. it also keeps a lid on growth. With this many cylinders, it's more difficult to keep the economy going full throttle.

But federal spending alone can't account for all the changes in the economic cycle. Other important factors include new technologies, startling shifts in global trade patterns, and the rise of new American industries that eclipsed the importance of some old ones. At first blush, some changes seem minor. Take, for instance, scanner technology. Most consumers' knowledge of it is limited to grocery checkout lanes.

But scanners have enabled industry to make revolutionary advancement in inventory control. It's an important advancement because past recessions often started when inventories got too big and companies quit buying supplies. Recoveries began when stockpiles dwindled and new orders were placed. More importantly, the nation's economic swings aren't as wide because the economy is much more diverse. A few decades back, a handful of indus the Journal Times Up WEDNESDAY March 20, 1991 Unchanged 4SS 10C uown 1,142 Dusincss Tc Joy ft Duck farm worker on job for 50 years 6 When I started, I was paid $18 a week.

-Mel Peterson By Paul J. Holley Business Editor YORKVTLLE The day started just like one a half-century ago, but the ending was certainly-different. "Yeah, there was white frost early and then it was bright and clear," said Mel Peterson of Union Grove. That day was March 19, 1941 his first on the job at the Cooper-Dixon Duck Farm. He finished the day of cleaning pens and feeding ducks by trudging home a quarter mile to milk cows.

A half-century later, Peterson's "Those days were just hard work. The hours were endless," said Alfred "Bud" Ruud, who hired Peterson and had dropped by for a visit Tuesday. "I could never remember Melvin being late, and I don't remember him taking any sick days." Peterson recalls-wearing out a- 'ISSSj fill WELDERS TO MEET THURSDAY: Heat treating and welding of tool die steel will be the program topic at Thursday's monthly meeting of the American Welding Association. The meeting starts at 6 p.m. at the Gateway Technical College Racine Campus.

The cost is $15. For reservations and further information, call 654-9178 or 553-9250 OSHA CITES ILLINOIS FIRM: A South Beloit, 111., company has been charged by the government with federal safety violations in the Jan. 11 death of a Beloit man who was crushed by a rail car in the company's salvage yard. The U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration issued six citations against William Lans Sons Co.

alleging serious violations of OSHA regulations in the death of Artemus Pittman, 31. The charges carry a maximum fine of $2,680. Pittman was found lying in a snowbank at the company's salavage yard. An autopsy later revealed he had suffered crushing chest injuries. CROP LAW EXTENDED TWO YEARS: Gov.

Tommy G. Thompson signed into law a bill Tuesday extending for two more years a state program that guarantees loans to farmers for seed, feed and fertilizers. The bill provides that the Wisconsin Housing and Economic" Development Authority make guaranteed loans to farmers of up to $20,000 during a single year. It also authorizes WHEDA to guarantee loans to a farmer of up to $25,000 in outstanding principal at any given time. Under the program, farmers are eligible for a guaranteed loan if their debts total at least 40 percent of the amount of his or her assets.

TEAMSTERS TO VOTE ON PACT: Truckers, mechanics and warehousemen covered by a Teamsters' freight contract would receive wage and benefit increases worth nearly 4 percent a year under a new three-year contract, the union said Tuesday. The pact covers about 160,000 Teamsters nationwide working for a variety of trucking firms around the country, said R.V. Durham, a chief negotiator for the Teamsters. Rank-and-file members will vote on the new contract, called the National Master Freight Agreement, through a mail-in ballot. Under the new pact, drivers' hourly wages would go up $1.40 an hour over the three-year period, going from the current $15.75 an hour to around $17.15 an hour.

Mileage rates, currently around 40 cents a mile, would increase 3.5 cents per mile over the three years. In addition, combined weekly health and welfare and pension contributions would be increased for each employee by a total of $42 a week by the end of the three-year contract. $30 BILLION MORE FOR SfL BAILOUT: Senate and House negotiators took less than 15 minutes Tuesday to agree to pump an additional $30 billion in taxpayer money into the bailout of depositors in failed savings and loan associations. The compromise bill will go to the two. chambers for final approval later this week.

President Bush is expected to sign it. The bills passed earlier by the House and the Senate each provided the $30 billion. They differed only on a few, comparatively minor details. PANEL OKS FUEL ECONOMY BILL: Legislation to requires automakers to sharply increase the fuel economy of new cars was approved 14-5 on Tuesday by the Senate Commerce Committee. The measure, strongly opposed by the auto industry, requires that the average fuel economy for new cars be increased 20 percent to 34.5 mpg over the next five years and by 40 percent to 40 mpg by the year 2001.

Currently the government requires cars to achieve on average 27.5 mpg. Automakers have argued that they can't meet the higher fuel efficiency requirements without making cars smaller. day ended witn a reception ms honor at Roma Lodge near Racine. Friends, bosses and co-workers at what is now Maple Leaf Farms toasted his 50 years on the job. Peterson has been in sales since 1975 and is now the order manager.

He and Janice, his wife of 43 years, raised two children and have five grandchildren. The duck farm in the town of Yorkville was a familiar place to Peterson. He walked past it on his way to a country school and he worked there part time after he reached his teens. So, at age 17, it seemed natural to take a full-time job at the farm. "I've known this place since I was that high," said Peterson, holding his palm a couple of feet from the floor.

"When I started, I was paid $18 a week." That $18 bought 11-hour days, six days a week plus every other Sunday. The" farm raised about 40,000 ducks a year. pair of work shoes every six weeks. At $2.98 per pair, the duck farm didn't furnish them. The two men kept the operation going during World War II.

Both were exempt from military service because the farm was a source of fresh poultry, a meat that wasn't subject to wartime rationing. During those years, 200 to 300 live ducks would be loaded on a truck and taken to a Milwaukee butcher shop where buyers would be lined up for a block. "Can you imagine how many women would take a live duck these days?" said Ruud with a chuckle. Peterson worked hard and saved his money. early savings went to buy a milking machine.

Other savings were invested in a hay baler, which he and Ruud used to bale hay for area farmers in their spare time. The duck farm started to grow after the war. Labor-saving equipment was added to incubate the Charles S. ValtoneJournal Times Mel Peterson at end of 50th year Tuesday duck eggs and process the adults. By the 1980s, after several ownership and name changes, the operation was growing and processing 18,000 to 21,000 ducks a day.

Peterson rotated through every job on the farm and in the plant. "I didn't do them all well, but I did them all," he said. The work included 18 years of living right on the farm premises. The future is already in sight as Peterson, 67, will retire at the end of the month. "I'll be hitting that little white ball around," he said.

"I've got fishing poles with no fish on the end and I've got a garden." Theater opening pushed back to Christmas A Racine movie theater expansion is taking longer than expected, but is still in the works. Marcus Theaters executives had hoped to open a remodeled, enlarged Westgate Cinemas, 5101 Washington in mid-March. Mark Gramz, vice president of operations, said Tuesday that the opening has been pushed back to Christmas as executives mull their options. Contractors that work with Marcus are "bidding a number of different options," he said. No decision has been made.

Among the options being considered is the original plan of turning the present two-screen Westgate complex into a six-screen movie theater. That would be done by splitting two auditoriums into four smaller ones and adding two viewing areas, he said. An alternate plan would create a five-screen complex by keeping one large auditorium, splitting the second auditorium and adding two screens. Marcus1 executives are also thinking of tearing down the Westgate building and replacing it with an all-new, multiple-screen complex, like the one the company built last year in Mequon and Oak Creek, he said. Marcus still wants to increase the number of screens it operates in Racine.

In addition to the two-screen Westgate theaters, the company has the six-screen Regency Mall Cinemas and the two-screen Rapids Plaza Cinema. (Continued on Page 11C) New York Stock Exchange i CPI 56 ClairSt .10 15. OaoaCp 2- Entrgy 1 20 2- FutGar 26 I2V- OSU pIK I0I4H IIPow oil 21a 39 LLE Ry .22 1 Marie la'j Nil pi 45V- CRI IMHO IH- ClarkE 'i Danhar 19 i. EiMara 24i. IlPo pi la 33 LSI Lg Marine 3'j.

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