The Morning Call from Allentown, Pennsylvania • 3

THE MORNING CALL WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 10, 2003 A3 Hoeffel opens U.S. Senate run with jabs at Specter, GOP 4 nil U.S. REP. JOE HOEFFEL officially announces his candidacy for the U.S. Senate at the Fort Washington Expo Center.

He will be in Allen-town on Thursday. Joe Craig Special to The Morning Call Hoeffel ery County. The fete opened with a mummers sextet and a Korean drum band, and ended with cheers from the crowd. Montgomery County Democratic Chairman Marcel Groen laughingly introduced the balding Hoeffel, saying he "wanted to talk about what's beneath the hair." "I want to talk about the brains," said Groen, flanked by the Philadelphia Democratic chairman, First District Rep. Robert A.

Brady. "I want to talk about the heart" But in choosing Johnstown as the first stop on his barnstorming tour, Hoeffel signals he will need to pick up voters outside Pennsylvania's two big Democratic bases Philadelphia and Pittsburgh to win the race. If he faces Specter in November, Hoeffel will be unable to rely on broad support in Philadelphia or its moderate suburbs against the senator, who also calls that region his home base. Hoeffel is well versed with success and failure at the polls. He lost his first run for public office in 1974 in a race for the state House.

He won two years later and served eight years in Harrisburg before deciding to run for Congress. True to form, he lost House races in 1984, 1986 and after a stint on Montgomery County Council in 1996. Hoeffel finally broke through in 1998, narrowly defeating incumbent "You never know what you're going to get with Arlen Specter," Hoeffel said here. "Some days he's Darlin' Arlen, some days he's Snarlin' Arlen, but every day he's trying to have it both ways. And in my 20 years of public service, I've never trusted politicians who try to have it both ways." Specter aides declined comment Tuesday.

Asked Monday about the tour, Specter said: "I don't have any thoughts at all about Mr. Hoeffel's candidacy. At an appropriate time, I will." Specter, a political moderate running for an unprecedented fifth Senate term from Pennsylvania, must first get past what is anticipated to be a nasty April 27 Republican primary against conservative Rept Pat Toomey, R-15th District. Borrowing liberally from the national Democratic Party platform, Hoeffel condemned the Bush administration for its tax cuts that he said squandered the federal surplus while only helping the wealthiest Americans. But he reserved most of his attacks for Specter, who voted for the tax cuts, charging the senator with siding with the White House to approve conservative federal judges, neglect the environment and abandon workers.

Hoeffel ended Tuesday with a rally of about 300 supporters at the Fort Washington Expo Center in Montgom Charlie Crystle drops out of race, clearing the field for the Montco Democrat. By Lara Jakes Jordan Of The Associated Press JOHNSTOWN Rep. Joe Hoeffel, taking his U.S. Senate candidacy to voters across the state Tuesday, said Pennsyl-vanians are being "cheated" by incumbent GOP Sen. Arlen Specter and the "radical, reckless and regressive policy" from Republicans controlling Washington.

Hoeffel's tour to promote the candidacy that he announced in June came as Democratic challenger Charlie Crystle dropped out of the race, leaving the three-term congressman with a cleared field to his party's nomination. "There really is only enough money for one candidate to go forward against Specter," said Crystle, a Lancaster software developer and political newcomer. Speaking to about two dozen supporters in Johnstown, Hoeffel charged Specter with "constantly pandering, placating or pacifying one group or another, endlessly maneuvering to protect his own future but not pur future." He later appeared in Montgomery County, where he lives. taking a swipe at Specter. "But the big difference is, Joe admits it.

My current opponent is in denial. But I look forward to running against Joe." Hoeffel continues his tour today with visits to Allentown and Pitts- burgh. Thursday, he'll be in Harrisburg and Scranton. In Allentown, Hoeffel will be at the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers hall, 12th and Liberty streets, at 5 p.m. Republican Jon Fox.

Many thought Hoeffel would pass on the 2004 Senate race and instead take on Sen. Rick Santorum in 2006, when he would have Gov. Ed Ren-dell at the top of the ticket instead of President Bush. Toomey, who was elected to the House with Hoeffel in 1998, said he and the Democrat have "personally gotten along" but predicted he would prevail should they ever face each other in the general election. "Like my current opponent, Joe Hoeffel is a liberal," said Toomey, Morning Call reporter Jeff Miller contributed to this story.

THE MORNING CALL SEE HOW THEY RUN Pennsylvania voters give President Bush a slight edge over Democratic challengers. Among Democrats, Howard Dean enjoys early front-runner status statewide, as he does nationwide. MUHLENBERG COLLEGE In 2004, will you vote for George Bush or the Democratic challenger? President George Bush If the primary election for the Democratic presidential nominee were held today, which one of the following candidates would you most likely vote for? Not sure 1 44 31 Democrat Howard Dean 40 19 Not surerefused to answer fcZZZZSi6 Joe Lieberman :12 Wesley Clark jlO Otherneither If the presidential election was held today and the race was between George Bush and leading Democrats, whom would you vote for? John Kerry 10 percent to 38 percent; and Clark, 47 percent to 33 percent. Those numbers came as little surprise to Borick, who pointed out that even the front-runners in the Democratic pack still are struggling to build their name recognition. "None of the Democratic candidates really stand out," Borick said.

"It shows that Pennsylvania is clearly an 'in-play' state." For Matt Mazzitelli of Yard-ley, Bucks County, the absence of a clear Democratic front-runner is an embarrassment. A Democrat, Mazzitelli, 34, doesn't think his party has produced someone who can give Bush a run for his money. "Nobody has really grabbed my fancy," he said. More than two years after the attacks that felled the World Trade Center, terrorism and the Iraq war remain at or near the top of the list of statewide and local concerns. Forty-three percent of statewide respondents and 41 percent of Lehigh Valley residents say those issues should be the nation's top priority.

"I think it's a mess right now," said Philadelphia barJ tender Rose DeGregorio on how she thinks the Iraq war is going. "There's just a long road and everyone has to be patient." A registered Republican, DeGregorio counts herself a staunch Bush supporter. She thinks he's doing "about as well as can be expected" given the magnitude of the problems facing the country. support Bush's bid for a second term. "At this point, Bush really has do something to sway my vote," said Turchetta, a married, 34-year-old father of two.

The candidacy of Democrat John Kerry of Massachusetts also intrigues him. Like many who responded, Turchetta listed the nation's still-groggy economy as one of his priorities. Statewide, 32 percent of respondents identified "economyjobs" as the nation's most important issue. In the Lehigh Valley, 34 percent rated the issue as No. "I'm in the retail automotive business and we've seen a decline in business" since the Sept.

11, 2001 terrorist attacks. "You can tell by dealing with people people aren't living as well as they were four years ago." Economic worries are higher in the Lehigh Valley than across the state, pollsters found. More than half the Valley respondents identified "improving the economy" as the factor that will determine how they vote in November. Statewide, preventing terrorism ranked highest. Both issues are important for Bush.

Nationwide polls make clear that voters give him high marks for fighting terrorism, but his record on the economy is a liability. For Steve Reisinger, 39, of Millerstown, Perry County, Bush needs to "move toward the working class a bit more" to earn his continued support. A lifelong Republican, Reisinger sees too many loopholes in the tax code favoring the rich. "The little guy shoulders the burden," said Reisinger, PRESIDENT FROM PAGE A1 of his Democratic rivals. In head-to-head contests, Bush holds comfortable leads over the top four Democratic hopefuls.

Among Pennsylvania Democrats, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean enjoys the same early front-runner status he does elsewhere in the nation, the poll found. Muhlenberg pollsters telephoned 430 Pennsylvania voters between Nov. 23 and Monday night, yielding an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percent. The Lehigh Valley responses have a margin of error of plus or minus 5.2 percent The time period included the president's surprise flight to Iraq on Thanksgiving, which Borick said gave him a temporary bump in support.

It ended before former Vice President Al Gore's public endorsement of Dean. The statewide findings reflect national surveys, including one conducted last week by Zogby America, which showed Bush with a 43 percent to 41 percent lead over an unnamed Democratic challenger. Already beset by a staggering economy and mounting American casualties in Iraq, Bush will have to work if he wants to win the hearts and minds of Pennsylvanians, the poll numbers show. Borick called the state a "stiff challenge" for Bush. Just ask Greg Turchetta of Red Lion, York County.

The registered Republican hasn't decided whether he's going to Dick Gephardt 6' Other 4 Carol Moseley Braun 3 Al Sharpton 3 Dennis Kucinich .02 John Edwards 0 Note; Not all percentages add up to 100 because of rounding. Source: The Morning CallMuhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion telephone poll of 430 registered voters between Nov. 23 and Monday. Margin of error is plus or minus 4.7 statewide, 7.1 among Democrats. Larry Printx The Morning Call Wesley Clark and U.S.

Sen. Joe Lieberman by 7 percent to 12 percent, the poll showed. In the Lehigh Valley, Bush leads Dean, 49 percent to 36 percent; Kerry, 48 percent to 36 percent; Lieberman, 50 who works for a home con-. struction firm. Democrats are hoping to capitalize on that weakness and on the perceived missteps in the new Persian Gulf war.

That was the same formula that helped Bill Clinton unseat former President George H.W. Bush in 1992. But it isn't happening yet. Pennsylvania voters favor Bush over Dean, U.S. Sen.

John Kerry, retired Army Gen. john.micekamcall.com 717-783-7305 ersville, Berks County, is one of the undecided. An avid fan of conservative talkmeister Rush Limbaugh, Schimoler cast her first votes against Franklin D. Roosevelt She's leaning toward Specter, but might be open to Toomey. "I have to pay some more attention," Schimoler said.

Statewide, 21 percent said they were undecided. In the Lehigh Valley, only 13 percent said they had not made up their minds. Borick said Specter, who has raised more than $9 million compared to $1.8 million for Toomey, remains in the driver's seat "People know him and he has the resources to get his message out," he said. The winner of the Republican primary will face. Rep.

Joe Hoeffel of Montgomery County, who is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. statewide lead. "It's really too early in the race to be looking at polls," said spokesman Bill Reynolds. "However, Senator Specter does appreciate the broad support he receives from the voters in Pennsylvania." The poll, conducted Nov. 23 through Monday, surveyed 193 Republicans statewide, yielding a sampling error of plus or minus 7 percent, and 144 in the Lehigh and Northampton counties, for a sampling error of plus or minus 8.1 percent.

Chris Borick of Muhlenberg College, who directed the poll, said Toom-ey's biggest liability four months before the primary is that more than half of Republican voters statewide say they haven't heard of him. Only 2 percent of Republican voters surveyed said they hadn't heard of Specter. voters by painting Specter as a liberal who sides with Democrats in the Senate against important GOP priorities, including those of President Bush. Specter, who has been endorsed by Bush, argues that his record for independence gives him a stronger voice within the Republican Party because he's not wedded to any agenda. About 60 percent of Republicans surveyed described themselves as "moderately conservative," with 19 percent calling themselves "strongly conservative." Most of the rest said they were "moderately liberal." Borick said Specter must reinforce his appeal with moderate Republican voters and establish himself with those voters who are undecided about returning him to Washington for a fifth term.

Gladys Schimoler, 83, of Shoemak- But the fact Toomey does well against Specter in his own district is a positive sign for Toomey's uphill campaign, Borick said. He also noted that the poll found that very few of the people who know Toomey have an unfavorable opinion of him. Statewide, only ON THE WEB one 10 of people expressing an Complete opinion about Morning Call Toomey said it Muhlenberg was negative. For College survey Specter, the num- results at ber of negative www.mcaU.com opimons was closer to one in three. Specter "has never struck a really warm chord with the really conservative members of his party," Borick said.

"Toomey has fed upon that." Toomey's strategy has been to target likely conservative Republican POLL FROM PAGE Al Congressional District that Toomey has represented since 1998. The northeastern corner of Montgomery County covers the rest. Specter, a Philadelphian, has been in the Senate since 1980 and spends considerable time in the Lehigh Valley. Toomey spokesman Joe Sterns said the poll shows that voters who know both candidates prefer Toomey. "Once Republican voters statewide get to know Pat better in the coining months, the numbers in the Lehigh Valley will be repeated throughout the state," Sterns said.

"Arlen Specter knows he's in trouble and that his negative campaign is backfiring." Specter's camp focused on his revenue would help doctors pay skyrocketing medical malpractice insurance premiums. As part of the budget deal, Rendell made clear Tuesday he still expects to see slot machines approved at horse racetracks, with the money to be used to lower local property taxes. But senators from both parties said that is highly unlikely to happen before the new year, if at all. Rendell's $2 billion economic stimulus package also is likely to be delayed until at least January. "We're told those will be put off until next year," said Sen.

Ted Erikson, R-Chester. "I don't see how we do them before that" much to put into new education programs this year, are some of the details being hammered out in a series of meetings that began Monday among Senate leaders of both parties. Two more negotiating sessions were held Tuesday. "It's been the most cooperative discussion I've seen this year," said Senate Minority Leader Robert Mellow, D-Lackawanna. "It's been enlightening how hopeful these discussions have been." Senate leaders have been going from lawmaker to lawmaker to see what additional spending each wants to see in the budget.

Wozniak, for example, wants more money for community colleges, he said. Under pressure from cash-starved schools some of which threaten to close be BUDGET ROM PAGE Al spending, with the promise of another $100 million for those programs in next year's budget. Rendell originally wanted more than $600 million. The budding Senate deal also would raise the state income tax by roughly 5 percent, from 2.8 percent of pay to about 2.95 percent. That would cost somebody making $50,000 another $75 annually.

The extra state revenue would plug holes in the budget while undoing at least some of the cuts made in March to human service programs, mass transit and public libraries. How much of those cuts to restore, and exactly how cause of a lack of state subsidy checks senators plan to forge an agreement among themselves by early next week. That agreement would then be used as a baseline for further negotiations with Rendell and House leaders. All sides say they hope a final deal can be reached and voted on by the end of next week. It is possible, however, that a vote could be delayed until the final week of the year.

Although Rendell has agreed to postpone his education reforms, he cautioned that senators "have a long way to go" before reaching a budget compromise he can accept. Until now, Rendell has insisted on at least $250 million in new spending for such school reforms as all-day kindergarten, preschool and smaller class sizes. But Tuesday, he agreed publicly with Republicans who have said that the impasse over spending has consumed so much of the new school year that such reforms could not be put into place this year anyway. Mellow, the top Senate Democrat, agreed. "So, what choice is there?" he asked.

Like Rendell, Senate Republican leaders moved toward a compromise by agreeing to increase the personal income tax to help plug a roughly $750 million hole in the state budget The emerging budget deal also probably will increase a variety of fines and fees, including a 25-cents-a-pack hike in the cigarette tax. That extra i -y i A john.bullamcall.com 717-787-2067 expects OK on slot machines.