BLYTHEVI1.LB'-(^RK.) COURIER NEWS BELIES WILL ' 'f"ntlm«d from p->np r,™-, Congress, must wrll/t for business Cmtnn Will Help I am quite confident, |oo that ryMor ""iieress will hel|> his pa" t'ent No one is quite so shrewd »n aopralser of public sentiment f-i HIP average Congressman When he has his "ears to the Around" he is as keen as a robin hopping about a lawn listening for vroims ] The splons; were home for several rronths tills fall, getting their constituents' reaction to 'reform" legislation. So with every Congressman and every thiid Senator up for''reelection this coming autumn I believe that business will be Riven the psychological lelief that II needs from Capitol Hill The biggest aids could be tax re• sion snd a utility "armistice 1 ""if Undistributed profits Tax v,ill *•- thrown out In everything except name New tax measures will be passed, easing up ort capital pain-; levies and perhaps cutting do»u on the high Income bracket assessments A lot of talk will be heart I •>«» a general sales tax, but it will net be passed Extending the In r'me tax into lower brackets will te proposed but killed "Tondtaf to Continue T Jo"ft for s> trUce between Uie povernment and thp iit'lltfes More 1 f^tn control legislation Kill be passed, continuing the hii&e fcdenl farm outlays Wage and hour lc»h latlon may go on the statute books but In a milder form than oilgl- nally proposed The president will get only crumbs from his government reorganization proposal. Generally, speaking, the nimltnl .< NEW MEAR music" tfom their own lor the of Mr. Roosevelt and his bi» Dem- o-ratic Congress will reach the legal separation stage—Jntf short of I(en" -Hvorcp proceedings The Increase in unemployment relief and new pump-priming measures will keep public expenditures at a high level Budeet balnnclna fflnnot now DP hoped for until the _jrriit_or ,the 1839-40 fiscal year at the earliest Hence, the trend of fl>p post five years toKnrd inflation •» >H continue It i= vital that every- t""1v remember this Just because inflation is not making headlines now, do not conclude that it is not making headway Inflation Is the ' biggest factor in the long-null business and, Investment outlook today" i s Priws to Increase " Inflation is not simply n domestic Issue. It is a world-wide influence It Is one of the rensoiis why I look for some inciense In prides m 1938 The sharp drop In both ' farm and industrial commodities since August makes tt eas> to forecast the price trend next >ear. Sen- fitive commodities should begin tl.elr rise som e weeks before business They are at, or close to. their 1/itfom now. But I doubt if the 1937 commodity price peaks will be broken ne\t year TIA fact next December an indev rf 7»4 raw and finished materials should average only around 5 ner cent above Ihe current level. Industrial commodity price 1 ; will be t'*e strongest. Farm products prices do not promise as • much action* Leading the rise will be non-ferrous metals, steel scrap, nnd hides. Th?. readjustment b°t\\een supply ami demand is quicker in these industrial materials than it is In farm products. But the latter will mo upward somewhat from present quotations. Farm Outlook Fair 1938 will se e sharper control over cotton, corn and nheal acreage. Ptices will end the ne* year well above today's levels Without a crop failure, however present carryovers are so large that they can prevent any wild boom In quotations Moreover, I expect to sec a further drop in beet, hog, and lamb juices. Butter, milk, eggs and poultry will also be cheaper next year, due to lower feed costs. It urouU be foolhardy to attempt any ;fixed forecast* of farm income. Barring crop disasters, however, my estimate is for total agricultural receipts next je ar to droo 5 to IB per' cent ;under the 1937 figures. Profits are also going to average below those for this past year. The goods which farmers must buy will .not be much cheaper than thev were in 1937, while farm prices will actually average lower than they have during the past twelve months. Because of the above situation, farm land values will show little change for the year. What About Wares and Strikes? Industrial -workers, after getting away to a poor start, should have a fair year. During the first few months, unemployment will be serious. Hundreds of factories have slowed dosm or closed completely. There are probably.a million-more Jobless since last 1 Labor Day. But the UnJons 'are clinging to their wage scales as deperately as an antique collector to a family heirloom. Despite poor business In the first quarter, I do not foresee any material change in industrial wage c ntes next year,—certainly none on the upside I • One of the features of 193S will be the sharp decline in labor's in- fliience,- After a jtar of almost con- tUnt bickering and turmoil, worker* jrtll quiet down The labor cycle has passed Its peak Just as 1936 s»w,Uie tenlth of the high-grade ^'-botkl market, so 1B37 witnessed the ptarfMle'of tabor' power for this " The reaction ot the public the current slump In business given the labor movement a F«n , itlU Improve as 1938 "1 average less Prolong! ami clnmoious Is the nlose us the nioni.e quintuplet* s.Cet the Ney, Yea. will, a vu liable blitsl of , ,.„ Jlve-phee orchestra picture-,! above. The Job of saying "Happy New Year" with music seem., to be n very .serioiw business >ur illc quIn s, jiulolng from their Intense expressions a* Annette beats n drum, Yvonne claps the cymbals. Emilic tools n horn Cecile wlinchs a triangle w«T Marine Jingle, the tambourine.' The five 'little sirls have never seen n real, live orchestra or band, but'it didn't late them long to find out that the general idea is lo play each Instrument as loud nnd fast as possible. The result wns so noisy that tw, irallcemcn came to the nursery gate to Investigate one ot the hilarious practice sessions. Go Separate Ways December, the number of jobless should total about 6.000,000 against 8,600,000 now nnd 5,500,000 nl the 1937 business peak. Taken as a whole 1938 will not be ns good a year for salesmen, merchants, and ndvortlslng people ns 1937. Things are pretty slow right now and will continue |>6i>r into 1938. However, as the months tie.k awjiy, the icsip(nii:e clouds should blow off and by late next year the seller's market should be on the way back. Then advertising linage will have another surge mul commission checks will again bulge. The 1937 national Income—estimated at $70.000,000.000— will not quite be equalled despite 1938's strong second-half sprint. Kctail Sales, Living- Costs Lower The national income rouihlv do- teimlnes the volume of retail trade. Hence. I expect relnil sales will average less In 1938 than 1937. They will be slow during the early months; but they will follow t'le strong business uptrend as the monthly pages are torn off the 1938 calendar. By next Christmas, volume of retail trade will have'a good chance nf breaking nil records since 1029. Shading of price-tags between New Year's and Easter will help lo boost sales. Tills drop In retail prices-Is good news for the householder, it looks now ns thoush the cost of living which has been rising steadily since 1933 will give ground e.ivly in 1S38. The average for the New Year, however, should show only a minor drop as food prices may touch off a new rise along about Labor Day. From current levels, you clothing will register a modest decline by next Ctalslmns; food should be up slightly; coal will show little change; fuel oil will bo firm to lower; nnd rents will be unchanged. Why Building .Slows Mown j One of the major cogs in this current business recession has been the sharp letdown In construction. After Killing Two Children Dry-eyed, depressed and moody, Mrs. Bettha Walters, 38. is shown iibnve In jail at Waverly, la., just after she killed two of her children and wounded the other two, in a rage because the;- "wouldn't mind." •Eugene, 1, and Beverly, 2, were killed as their infuriated mother turned a rifle r>n them. Lavonne, 5. and ilornard. 9, were wounded. material concerns nnd workers both shoved tip Building binktnvjr costs out of all reason during 103631. A house which cost $5.000 to build In December, 1935 would cost nearly $6.500 today. Naturally, dc- mund for nc\v homer has" slowed up in face of this unwarranted boosting of cosls. Home building'is The divorce of Grand Duke Dmilri. pretender lo the Russian throne, <lown 20 1 >CI ' cc " 1 [roln tnc 1937 pictured \vlth his ex-wife, Princess Ilylnskala, the former Audrey Emery of New York, caused speculation In Park society about two new romances. Dmllrl was e.xpecteil lo nmrry Princess Helen, lov- mer wife of King Carol of Rumania, who long ago announced their engagement. The American heiress' name was linked with that of peak, is below a ycnr ago, nnd is still falling. My thought is that it will continue to drop until after business lias begun lo retrace its steps late next spring. Sometime next year, however, home building shonlc agniu l>c humming along. The 193' peak may even be topped so that the average volume of new homes for the New Year could be above last year's level. The new government housing program could also give the Industry a big lift. It Is even possible Hint the home building boom which I really expected to develop in 1937 will start late this coming year. R*al Estate More Active Private non-residential construction, on the otlier hand, will b.» lower. I now see little Incentive for new plant expansion next year. Public utility work, however, may lake up the slack caused by PWA pulling In Its horns on public works projects. A decline In building costs should help volume In the early months; but before 1938 closes costs will reverse their field again ami be on their way to a new peak. These higher costs will help real estate values. New home prices, which arpjnow being shaded here and there, will strengthen. Ilo'v- evui-, i hold little hope for an increase Infold house vnlues, bariim drastic '(inflation. Good v.iuanl property and mocle.st well-hid-ant modern homes are among the best Investments a iwrson can m;i,ko today. For that reason r fce'l that 1938 Is going to be a pcod vea> for realty men—with a slov; start nnd an active finish. Stocks lo Rallv This same rough plan should also hold for stocks. I expect lo see the markets ily the revival signal before 1938 is too old. Tt would \m silly to predict they will, n- will not, break through their 1917 March peak. It makes little dlffcrenc" whether they do or do not. for good- focks at cm-rent prices, j n , n |. opinion, offer excellent profit opportunities. Furthermore, while selection will again b e Important, diversification will be the vilal point in ma. .=o'nn groups will, of course, do better ;han othars. 'if I had to guess the outstanding industries of 1938 from market standpoint, I would pick the METALS, OILS. BOII.nTNn MATERIALS, AIRCRAFT MAKERS, STfiELS, CHEMICALS. ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENTS, and MAIL ORDERS. The "UTILITIES may surprise investors and the RAILS arc so low that any irood news could give them a tremendous percentage increase in value. The MOTORS and "RUBBERS offer less promise because auto assemblies will be below 1937. Feature of Bond Market The bond market will be influenced more by. business in 1938 than it has teen during- late years. Medium ' grades have registered a terrific drop this fall and I look for price Increases in this group to feature the bond market in 1938. Gilt-edge issues are down much less than these iiit^Iium grades. , This situation offers a coort opportunity to make a few trades to Improve yields and Increase profit cossibililies. I make this statement for I believe that the long-term trend of high-grade bond prices Is definitely downward. .Sound medium-grade bonds should be a better purchase for the next few months than senior obligations. When money rates start rising, high-grade bond values are going to filter away slowly. Trend Toward World Inflation One of the major reasons why I am so confident that higher mone" rates are inevitable is the world outlook. None of the major nations [r™ pf the minor powers are today operating on a balanced hud- get. Billions of borrowed dollars, -'rns. rnnrks, and francs are being soent in a mntl armament race, ^ntioual currencies are destined to become stendilv cheaper in terms of goods. Furthermore, there seems to be only a remote chance of averting world conflict: Through reciprocal trade agreements—and a genuine spiritual revival! President Roosevelt and Secretary null hnve done more for world •'in- '" thi* 'n.sl five years than all the international peace conferences of the past two decades! In spite of terrific pressure from Cronus at home, the Stale Department has pushed steadily ahead with its trade agreements. Tiiey have negotiated sixteen treaties nnd are now working on the most important ot nil-Great Britain. Vast amounts of data have been culled over nnri the treaties have had as their sound goal "the most good for tli c biggest number." Writ-' Trade Outlook As a result, our share of foreign National Insignia HORIZONTAL 1 Coat of aims of pictured here. 830% of this country is covered with ' s. 13 Toward sea. H Perfume. 16 Annndlllo. 17 Wigwam. 18 To thread. 19 Like mine. 20 List of mines. 22 Treatise on morals. 25Eilhor. '27 Utmost extent. 31 Greater in rank. 35 To am™. M Infant. 37'J'opiovide food. 39' Bast fiber. Answer to Previous Puzzle •12' Passed by hand. 46 Wall;s on. 51 Hooks. 2 Consumer. 52 Wireless. 3 Cotton fabric. 54 Dregs. 4 Pistols. 50 Fetid. 5 Less common. 57 Swift. 6 Passage. 58 Identical. 7 Devoured. 59 This country's 8 To harrass. king. " S Branches. CO Finish. ID,Narrative 61 This country's poem, capital. 11 Without. VERTICAL Ia To attempt. ISHaill 1 Flying 21 Child, mammal. . 23 Third-rate actor. 24 This country borders the • Sea. 26 Its stale cliuicli is Orthodox —28 Bugle plant. 29 Encountered, 30 Wrath. . 32 Stiiped fabric. 33 To wedge in. 34 Kimono sash. 38. Wand. 39 To regret. 41 Slave. , 42 Nimbus. 43 Mohammedan noble. 44 Breeding places. 45 Valley. 46 Bound. 47 To decay. 48 Too. i 49 Unable to hear 50 Half. : 51 Quoits pin. 53 Lair. 55 Ocean. commerce has shown a much sharper increase than that of the world at large. In 1937. for instance, our exports and imports were 34 per cent higher than in 1936, while total world trade was'up only 25 per cent. This year there should be modest gains in overseas commerce, but the rate of increase will slow up. I expect that Scandinavia, South America, Great Britain and her Dominions will again be our best markets. International relations will not improve noticeably in 11938. I think that gangster diplomacy. wilPcori- iiuie 111 vojue for another! yenr at least. But I am convinced from my trip abroad this fall tliat 1938 will see no general war. !• am not very hopeful over the long-term future, however. A bitter conflict seems inevitable unless a new Christmas spirit invades the hearts of men all over the world. Great Bargains Today The above is a good outline of what I [eel renders can expect in 1938. We have come over a long hard rend since 1933. 1 nm confident that we are not going bnck to those depths this yenrf America is suffering just now from an attack of business indigestion complicated by a severe case of jitters. The ups- and-downs of buincss seem to have been growing deeper rather than shallower during the past ten years. Tliis is because the country is swept by succeeding waves of emotional distrust and confidence, due to a weaker spiritual foundation. Just as in the fall of 1937 optimism changed overnight Into black pessimism, so the current gloom can be transformed into confidence again by the stroke of a pen. For that reason, I believe that there are now some wonderful buying opportunities. Stocks and bonds, homes and furnishings, food and clothing, are, or soon will be, on the bargain counter. Hence, my closing message today is: Work for a more honest and less selfish America; but do ' not let present timidity scare you away from today's great opportunities! . The British Empire consists of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Channel islands nnd Isle of\ Man, the Irish Free State, fnctia,' and the numerous British dominions, colonies, protectorates, and dependencies. -I |j i PRESCRIPTIONS ARE OUR SPECIALTY £ ' Phone 141 * FOWLER DRUG STORE DAY \ n Georgian prince. than In 1837. The reasons? First, business activity opens the year 23 per cent below last January. Second, labor-saving machinery Is being installed everywhere. Third, the railroads will employ less workers. Finally, "merit rating" systems in state unemployment Insurance laws will militate against hiring temporary help. 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