Greeley Daily Tribune from Greeley, Colorado • Page 20

Boulder scientists see end of period of favorable weather By BILL JORDAN Boulder Camera (Writtrn for Associated Press) BOULDER, Colo. (AP) Observers of the global'climale at the National Center for Atmbs- pheric Research believe the fa- vorable weather of the past 15 -f years is about to give way to a t'pefrld" of unstable climate, crop losses'; Shortage's and deat'h by for mil- 'f- r3ri-- 'Schneider, deputy head of the Climate 'Project at the center said that- with the world's food reserves already thin, upcoming unstable weath- er conditions will lead to a drop in food production that will cer- tainly lead to starvation and death in overpopulated and poor nations. Dr. Walter. Orr Roberts, at- mqspheric' 1 scientist at NCAR, is watching and the both the two 'topjcs are- 'related in that they bjsed the premise that "jhe' world a history weather-- a'good part of it bad.

Roberts, who has claimed na' tiorial headlines for a 'long time with his theory on the cycles of the High Plains drought, said that it is still much too early to say that the drought is underway. It will take another 12 to 14 months to determine that, he -said, "but if the weather of the six weeks or so continues, willlook very much like it." If the. drought is upon it mean a in wheat pro' duction in a that can ill afford such a loss. Underlying Schneider's ideas on food shortages is the knowledge that the world is moving into a period of cooler temperatures. Scientists know that the temperate latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere were getting warmer during the period between 1890 and 1940.

From 1940 until the present, the temperature has been going slowly back down. It is generally believed that the temperature is about two-thirds the way back to where it was before the rise Schneider believes that for the past 15 years we have been experiencing exceptionally good weather related to the range of temperatures available. "The last 15 years have been so good that just about any old gambler would say that we had better be prepared for not seven years of famine but at least one year of bad weather," Schneider said. "If you look at the last 15 years, you find that the vari- ability'has been much lower than over the last 70 years. "In the Wheat Belt, the rainfall has been very high and the temperature has been lower than average--conditions ideal for growing wheat.

"Basically, we've been spoiled," Schneider said. "In the Bible, it says there were seven years of feast and seven years of famine. We'vw had 15 years of feast and we forgot," he said. "We've had the good weather. At the same time we have had improving technology in food production.

But the world's population has also been exploding. The world's food reserves are depleted even with the good weather and the good technology. "I'm very much afraid of starvation in the world. We're facing a food crisis that is frightening," Schneider said. With a world population of around 4 billion: 1.

World grain reserves are less than a month's supply; 2. Fertilizer, one of the most important factors in high yield agriculture, has become expensive and scarce; 3. "We've been taking constant climate for granted. There are just so many times you can roll the dice and win," Schneider said. In the face of a fertilizer shortage, "What is India to do," asked Schneider, "when they are already at subsist- ance level." He said that much of the "green revolution" achieved in tropical areas of the world can be attributed to miracle crops, hybrid varieties that have very high yields.

"The catch is that these crops require an optimum amount of moisture and fertilization," said the 29-year-old scientist. In 1972, Schneider said, "we lost-one roll of the dice. The Russians had a drought and the monsoons came three weeks late in India." The result was a world scramble for wheat. Grain reserves dropped from 66 days to the present level of less than a month, Schneider said. He said that of the wheat produced in the world each year, 90 per cent of it is consumed close to where it was grown.

"Only 10 per cent goes into world trade and most of that trade comes from United States and Canadian surpluses. If I he United States were to experience just a 5 per cent drop in its production, "that's UN must be careful when naming its new operations By WILLIAM N. OATIS Associated Press Writer UNITED NATIONS, N.Y. (AP) --Staring into his alphabet soup in the U.N. cafeteria the other day, one diner said to another, "This must be where the United Nations gets the letters for all those acronyms it makes up for new'operations." The latest acronym to come out of the pot is "UNDOF," for the new U.N.

Disengagement Observer Force being deployed in the Syria-Israeli buffer zone i'n the Golan Heights. The initials in such a combination are hot pronounced one after another but spoken as a single word. Accordingly, care must be taken not to produce the wrong combination. There was some panic at an advance report, which turned out to be false, that the new operation would be the U.N. Disengagement Group, or UNDOG.

If is anywhere that "dog" is 'a bad word, it is the Middle East. There have been similarly strange though not quite so embarrassing-' UiN. acronyms. What was.Known as'the U.N. Relief Office in Dacca, or UN- ROD, until the United Nations recognized Bangladesh, thereafter had to become the U.N.

Relief Operation in Bangladesh, or UNROB. For many years, there was a U.N. Economic and Social Of- fice in Beirut, or UNESOB, though it was really nothing to cry about. Recently it was ref placed-by "eunuch." It was far from impotent, however. It creamed Moise Tshombc's gendarmes and mercenaries and ended the secession of his Katanga province.

UNFICYP, the U.N. Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus, rhymes with UNMOGIP, the U.N. Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan. UNEF, for the U.N.' Emergency Force, could be ambiguous, because there have been two such forces in Egypt, one disbanded in 1907 and the other started in 1973. The even tual solution may be to speak of UNEF I and UNEF II.

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But it looks cold because the sur- close to half the world's trade," da a larger portion of sun that appears dark in con- said Schneider. the world's export of grain Hum trast to the very bright surface If'world production dropped, the Middle East does its oil," of the sun. It's actually about "Would we make it up by re- Schneider. "You can't eat degrees Celsius, hotter ducing our consumption?" oil." Schneider said an awareness The young scientist said of the world food situation "Technology has put off the shows how it shapes inter- day of reckoning. But 1 fear national politics.

that the population bomb is "Secretary of State Kissinger about lo go off now." seems lo recognize the need to In his work on the 20-year use food as a part of our for- Higli Plains drought cycle, Rob- eign assistance program. It erts has been trying lo relate seems to me to be cheaper than the occurrence to sunspot activ- giving away tanks and planes," ity. said Schneider. He describes a sunspot as "a "The United States and Cana- cold area on the surface of the drought according theory, there is a 22 year drought cycle in the High Plains. Roberts admits that he The kind ol doesn't understand the cause of the droughts and that he is not M( umd he cycle for i-ighl straight cycles.

rounding region is about 0,000 predicting that a drought will degrees Celsius." Roberts said that it still may be coincidental, but the the High Plains to the minimum of the sunspot cycle on every other cycle. Aside from the sunspot activity, which is now right for a occur. But the facts are tliat the droughts do occur in the same part of Hie High Plains, an area stretching from the Rock- ies east to east Kansas and the drought does occur, UK' sunspot idea may lie the key lo predicting the end of the drought and possibly the coming of Hie mill. SCIENTISTS Dr. Stephen H.

Schneider, left, and Dr. Walter Orr Roberts, both of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, say their research on global weather indicates the favorable weather of the past 15 years will give way to an unstable climate leading to crop losses, food shortages and death by starvation for millions. (AP Wirephoto) UNPAINTED FURNITURE OUTLET Do It Yourself Save! READY TO PAINT! STAIN! ANTIQUE! DINING ROOM FURNITURE; BOOKCASES OCCASIONAL ITEMS BEDROOM FURNITURE Our customers are welcome to use our workshop to finish their unpalnted furniture. We have a wide selection of easy-to-apply finishes. Dave Knowlton, Owner-Manager 10-6 Sat.

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