The Edwardsville Intelligencer from Edwardsville, Illinois • Page 4

Tuesday, September, 17,1974 EDWARDSVILLE INTELLIGENCER PageS U.S. Government Projections- How Accurate? By Mike Carr Liiidsay-Schaub Newspapers Last week the UjS. Department of Agriculture released another "official" crop report. Despite all the reports that have been released previously this season, this was only the second of the official reports. There we find the root of many of the difficulties that have afflicted the marketing system this year.

The USDA the same government agency a told you they couldn't ask exporters to report then- sales too often cut their own official reports because they cost too much. But they quickly discovered a need for more reports than they had scheduled. And, ever sensitive to the needs of the agriculture community, they filled the gap. With "projections." A "projection" in case you didn't already know is when a bunch of economists and political appointees get together and say something like this: "I bet we have a lot of crops this year." "We better have. We need them tor the State Department." "Yeah, and the voters are starting to scream about prices.

Lots of crops might bring down the prices, right "Well, my projections indicate that if you increase the supply beyond demand, which we call moving supply to the right, the price structure should reflect aforesaid increased supply, assuming other variables are constant." good, Sam." "But chief, I hear there is some bad weather out in the Midwest and the Great Plains." "Shut up, Herman. This is a crop projection meeting, not a Weather Bureau clatch. "Chief, our people have reported we paid to keep million acres of land idle last year. Since we aren't paying for that this year, we can safely assume it will be planted to crops." "Very good, Gaston. Now, Marcus, how good were our yield 1 last year?" "They set a record, chief." "Then we can assume they will set another record this year, right?" "Of course, chief." "Well gentlemen, I don't think our problem is very difficult.

Sam, have your people multiply the new acres by a new record and sec what figure they come up with." "Right, chief." "And while you're at it, figure in some new acres we figure will be reclaimed." "But chief "Herman, will you shut up! Gentlemen. I think the man across the hall is going to be very pleased with our report. We'll meet again when another proiection is needed. Until then, this meeting is adjourned." Of course this dialogue is i i i Frank Salzarulo, a veteran farm writer for the Indianapolis News, and some other members of the Newspaper Farm Editors of America, have grown restive over the reporting system. "These projections are made by the outlook and situation board of the Economic Research service," Salzarulo wrote, The supposedly accurate monthly forecasts are made by the Statistical Reporting Service.

"These projections weaken the effectiveness of the SRS forecasts, which are reached scientifically and with a good record of accuracy in the past." according to the Indianapolis man. "The public's in government crop forecasts also is weakened." "We've been arguing with the projections since before the first plow was pulled out of the shed. Even with a good year, farmers would have had to plant the freeways to match the forecasts. When the weather turned bad, but the projections stayed good, we argued some more. The American Soybean Association and the National Corn Growers Association, joined with such respected private reporting firms as Leslie, Doane's and Kippl- inger, had some more realistic reports for the growers.

But those government projections, carrying as they did the weight of the executive branch and its infallibility, hung over'the market. OfiiheMm Ron Cornwell's Column Disease Control Essential This Fall Best for Southern Illinois Three Wheat Varieties Popular By Albert Meyer S1U News Service Southern Illinois farmers who grow winter wheat would do well to consider the three A varieties--Arthur, Arthur 71 and Abe--for seeding this fall, according to reports on winter wheat variety tests at the agronomy research centers of Southern Illinois University near Belleville and Carbondale as reviewed at the summer soils and crops field days by University of Illinois area agronomist Dale Willis. These three varieties ranked at the top in the variety tests and arc gaining rapidly in popularity with wheat producers in the southern half of the state. The Arthur varieties gave the highest yields at SIU's Belleville Research Center with better than 35 bushels an acre this year which generally was a poor wheat year in the state. Abe moved ahead of Arthur varieties at the Carbondale center where yields were lower than at the Belleville location.

The Arthur varieties consistently give high yields, arc early maturing, short strawed with good standability, and give good gram test weight. Arthur began to gain popularity by 1970 and Arthur 71 appeared as an improved variety with some resistance to Hessian fly damage a year or two later. Both have good resistance to leaf and stem diseases. The two account for about three-fourth of the wheat grown in Southern Illinois and more than half of the state's wheat crop. Abe is the latest addition to the favored list.

It has resistance to Hessian fly damage, leaf and stem rust, powdery mildew, and soil-borne mosaic diseases. Its general characteristics arc similar to Arthur 71 with short straw, good yields, high test weight, and excellent standing ability for harvesting. The three A wheat's have replaced Monon as the most widely grown winter soft wheat variety grown in Illinois. Monon held the top position for about 10 years until replaced in 1971 by Arthur as the variety most popular with wheat growers. Monon was one of the first soft wheat introductions with Hessian fly resistance and still can be considered a good variety for Illinois wheat growers, It consistently has been a good grain yielder, had good stand- ability and high tillering ability.

However, Monon and another popular soft wheat variety, Benhur, have been dropped from variety tests at the Carbondale and Belleville research units as attention turns to checking on newer introductions. Two varieties introduced in recent years which have not been widely accepted by Illinois wheat growers are Blueboy and an improved strain, Blueboy II. Early tests of these two varieties brought outstanding yields. They had the ability to stand well under high applica tions of nitrogen fertilizer. Low grain test weight compared to other wheat varieties grown by the farmers detracted from Blueboy popularity.

The two varieties produced substantially lower yields than other varieties in the area tests this year be cause of susceptibility to diseases resulting from wet spring weather. Pointed out by Millis as a promising new variety for trial by Southern Illinois wheat grow ers is McNair 4832, a southern variety similar to Blueboy but with better grain test weight and shorter, stiff straw. The variety provided the top yield this year at the Carbondale experimental field where all wheat yields were poor, but ranked fifth among varieties at the Belleville field. Millis reported that the soft red winter wheat varieties now account for about 80 per cent of the state's wheat production. Hard wheat varieties, most of which arc grown in central and northern Illinois, are declining in popularity as farmers shift to the higher yielding soft wheat varieties.

Although Illinois farmers seeded a record wheat acreage last fall, the 1974 hearvcst certainly was disappointing to most growers as yields averaged only about half of what they expect in a good wheat year. Late winter freeze damage and excessive rainfall during the pol- Garlic a Persistent Problem in Wheat Improved crop practices and chemicals can be combined over a period of years to control wild garlic in wheat, say crop specialists of FS Services Inc. Wild garlic has been a problem in wheat production for a long time. But little has been done to eradicate it because the dock at the grain elevator of 4 to 20 cents per bushel was insignificant when compared to the cost of controlling the weed. But 1974 was different.

Many farmers were docked $1.50 per bushel for wheat containing wild garlic. Wheat production which contained garlic was also up from last year. Garlicky wheat contains two or more green garlic bulblets, or an equivalent quantity of dry or partly dry bulblets, in 1,000 grains of wheat. Why was there more garlicky wheat this year? For one thing, 40 per cent more acres were seeded to wheat. Much of the land was former government set-aside acres prone to garlic infestation.

Also, weather last winter didn't destroy the garlic. When it was cold the ground was covered with snow. There were other reasons too, according to the crop experts. The cool wet spring was ideal for garlic growth. The March 23 cold wave in Southern Illinois didn't hurt the garlic because there was snow cover.

But it set the wheat back two to three weeks. Garlic plants were more numerous and grew better. Wheat didn't grow as well as usual. Farmers got a lot of aerial bul- blets in the combine at harvest time. Higher docks were imposed, said the experts, for several reasons.

Foreign buyers will not purchase garlicky wheat. The wheat, therefore, is used for domestic livestock feed. Wheat was much higher in price this year than corn used for livestock feed. Also, labor costs for processing are higher. When garlicky wheat is milled, the garlic juice builds up on the rollers.

Production must be stopped for periodic cleaning of the machinery. The FS authorites have these suggestions for growing garlic- free wheat. Select a field for wheat planting that has no history of garlic infestation. If only part of a field becomes infested, harvest separately and use the garlicky wheat for feed. Rotate crops and use 2, 4-D post emergence on all corn.

Spray 2, 4-D (one half pound of the ester form) on wheat in the spring after it has finished tillering but before it is in the boot stage. Lake Michigan, with no Canadian boundary, penetrates the great prairies of the Midwest. Anniversary Register Now For FREE ZIG-ZAG Sewing Machine NAME ADDRESS TELE PHONE Drawing will be September 2B, 1974 Montclaire Sewing Center 15UTroy Road-- EdwirdavilU llnatlon period reduced the amount and the quality of the grain. In spite of good prices for wheat, many growers in the southern part of the state had additional problems with weeds and garlic that brought severe price dockage when the wheat was offered for sale. According to state crop reports, winter wheat now.

is produced on one-third of all the state's farms. The state produces 3 per cent of the nation's winter wheat crop and ranks eighth among the states in winter wheat production. More than 80 per cent of the state's wheat crop is produced in the southern half of the state. By Ron Cornwell of I Extension Adviser It will be very important for Madison County farmers to do what they can this fall to control wheat diseases. This past wheat crop in Illinois was reduced by 20 to 25 pel- cent because of disease.

There are several things you can do: (1) plant clean, high test weight, fungicide treated seed; (2) delay planting until at least the fly-free date, which is Oct. 7 to 9 in Madison County; (3) do not plant this year's crop on last year's wheat or corn ground, and (4) do not apply heavy rates of nitrogen this fall. Seed quality is of great importance. Clean your seed thoroughly to remove shriveled, scabby, lightweight kernels which are badly infected with scab. Also, plant seed with a high test weight to help insure high yields and lower losses to seedling blights.

Seed protectant chemicals should be applied after the seed has been thoroughly cleaned. Of- ten seed can be commercially treated at the elevator or seed- house where cleaning is done. You may apply some protectant chemicals in the planter box. Planting date also has an effect on the probability of damaging disease. Planting before the fly-free dates generally favorable for the development of seedling blights, root rots, septoria leaf blotch, snow mold, powdery mildew, barley yellow dwarf and wheat streak mosaic.

Early planting usually moans higher soil temperatures. And high temperatures are more favorable to seedling blight and root rot fungi. You should delay heavy applications of nitrogen until the wheat starts to green up in the spring. Heavy nitrogen applications in the fall promote rank growth favorable for the development of septoria leaf blotch and powdery mildew. Leaing Meeting A program on farm leasing will be held at 7:30 p.m.

Sept. 30 in the Farm Bureau auditorium at 900 Hillsboro Ave. Franklin Reiss, University of Illinois farm lease specialist, will be the featured speaker. The program will cover the types of farm leases that might be used in Madison County. Drying Soybeans There has been interest by some farmers in Madison County in drying soybeans this year.

If a grower plans to store soybeans for a short period of time, they should be dried down to 13 per cent moisture. For soybeans to be stored over one year, is it necessary to drop the storage moisture content to 11 per cent. Low temperature or natural air drying appears to work well for drying soybeans. Air flow rates of 1 to 2 C.F.M. per bushel and sufficient heat to raise the air temperature from 3 to 5 degrees can be expected to dry soybenas in less than three weeks with aminimum of seed coat cracking.

The exact amount of time required will vary with initial moisture content of the soybeans and the weather conditions. As higher temperatures are used in dring soybeans, the germination of the soybeans will drop rapidly and there will be increased seed coat cracking. For more information, request a copy of Circular 1094, "Harvesting and Drying Soybeans," from the cooperative extension office in Fireplace Wood Although any kind of wood may be used as fuel, some woods make better firewood than others. The heating value of dry hardwood may be judged by its weight Generally the heavier hardwoods are considered to be better fuel than the lighter ones. Midwestern homeowners rarely use softwoods, such as pine or fir, because they are not readily available.

Some softwoods, however, have a higher heat value than the hardwoods because of their high resin content. The best fireplace woods are apple, beech, black locust, osage-orangc. hickory, oak, pent- and sugar maple. if FREE OR AT BIG SAVMGS 25BEAUTFUL SUNBEAMS SAVERS (plus 2 great E's) AT GERMANIA FEDERAL (Start or add to your account $200 to $5000 or more) yoXirTop Rate Passbook or Prestige Savings here' Pick your Sunbeam GE) here 4 to 10 Year 30-Month One-Year 90-Day. Notice Accounts Regular IW, KAYB 7.50% 6.75% 6.50% 5.75% 5.25% Bwrova 7.79% 6.98% 6.71% 5.92% 5.39% niriirnufru Inlereat en li COMPOUNDED DAILY and pild MONTHLY.

$200 minimum, Inttratt compounded dally, paid quarterly, Inlerett compounded dally, paid quarterly. On certllfcatea, federal law Interest ptnatty lor early withdrawal. If you wish to make your deposit and receive your Sunbeam (or GE) by mail- write or call your nearest Germania Federal office for brochure with complete details. One gift per person. Olfe'r expires November 9..1974.

FEDERHL SAVINGS AND WAN ASSOCIATION HomeOHIcwALTON, 643 ErBROADWAY62002 OTS-465-S543 314455-07 6ie-288-t582 ILL 4201 BROADWAY 62864 i618-242-e573 JO'FALLON, /KA.e BUVD. ITEW 1. Cadet Alarm Clock 2. Tropic Kitchen Clock 3. Sunbeam Boy 4.

Sunbeam Girl 5. Cornwall Warming Tray 6. Consolette Alarm Clock 7. Glade Occasional Alarm Clock 8. Lady Sunbeam Shaver 9.

Healing Pad 10. Bath Scale 11. Tangle-Free Comb 12. GE Battery Picture-Cube Radio 13. Mist-Slick '14.

"Hot Shot" Beverage Maker 15. Miniature Grandfather Clock (19" high; 16. Power Breeze Men's 17: Five-Speed Hand Mixer 18. Can 19. Automatic Percolator (11 Cups) 20.

Radio 21. "Shot of Steam" Self-Cleaning Iron 22. Ladies' Salon-Style Hair Dryer 23. Digital Alarm Clock 24.. Sunbeam Shavemaster 25.

Teflon Frypan Waffle 27. Outdoor-Indoor Heavy-Duty Vac $200 )f IROfl FREE FREE- FREE FREE 2.75 2.75.. 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 T.75 15.50" 15.5015.50 15.50 17.50 24.50 Of mow FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 13.95 13.95 13.95 "15.95 22.95 25.95 Ojportt (9000 or mom. FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FRE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE 8.95 8.95 6.95 10.95 17.95 20.95.