The Guardian from London, Greater London, England • 2

2 I NEWS Th Guardian Thursday February 13 1997 'Monetary policy must look beyond short-term effects, Bank of England report tells Chancellor Clarke rebuffs prices alert Fund of hypocrisy from the lackeys Projected inflation Unemployment Larry llllott canomics Idttor tate for a moment to raise interest rates if I thought it was the right thing to do economically. I've raised rates before when I thought it was necessary Economist Adam Cole, of stockbroker HSBC James Ca pel, said: "We continue to see Clarke's unwillingness to raise rates as a policy error in the making and very much agree with the bank's view that accelerating domestic demand should be curtailed bv tighter domestic policy de spite the rise in sterling. "The price of laxity now is likely to be higher base rates in the longet run a price unlikely to be paid by the cm rent Chancellor of the Exchequer." Uwtor comment, page 1 Notebook and Unemployment at aix-yoar low, pago 19 mestic demand will put upward pressure on inflation." With the Government eager to focus public attention on the fall in the number of people out of work and claiming benefit to a six year low of 1,815,000, Mr Clarke did his best to play down the rift. "We are recovering extremely strongly, but things have been going steadily since Christmas. They show no signs of speeding up." he said.

The Chancellor stressed that manufacturing was up only about 1 per cent on last year, retail sales were robust but not booming and pay rises were restrained. House prices were picking up. but "only from being as flat as a pancake. We still haven't got rid of all the negative equity." Later. Mr Clarke said on a visit to the Wirral South by-election: I wouldn't hesi but problems were being stored up for the next Chancellor.

Most analysts believe base rates will have to rise from 6 per cent to 6.5 or 6.75 per cent by the end of the year. While accepting that the rise in the pound would cut the cost of imports and make the outlook for inflation good over the next few months, the bank said this would be a temporary boost. The Government's target is to keep inflation excluding mortgages below 2.5 per cent, but the bank is concerned that in two years the strong growth in the money supply, higher investment, the pick up in the housing market and the boost to consumer spend ing from building society conversions will make underlying inflation "dose to per cent and rising" On Tuesday, the Bank's Increase in prices on a year earlier Bank ol England projections, Range of possibilities 1992 93 94 95 96 97 98 deputy governor. Howard Davies, called for a quarter-point increase in rates and this was followed by a blunt warning in yesterday's infla tion report. The bank said: "Monetary 1 2.5 Hkaaflw Tr(t i- 1 of Mr Nadir's victims.

But it was new to me that under Mr Major's premiership 68 per cent of honours have been awarded to people who have given money to Tory funds. (If I had been honoured for being a good chap I would be inclined to sue Mr Major for making people think 1 had bought it.) Mr Winnick was opposed to David Shaw, the loudmouthed Tory who sits for Dover. There were three reasons for voting against the bill, he said. "Labour hypocrisy! Labour hypocrisy! And Labour hypocrisy!" This turned out to mean the unions, as it always does. As for the Tories, the point about Mohamed Al Fayed was that he had received "absolutely nothing for his quarter million pounds and that was his complaint!" The notion that it is somehow honest to take a backhander and then do nothing in exchange was also new to me.

It could provide a defence in corruption cases. "Yes I took the money, but I had no intention of cooperating." Mr Shaw started on the funding of Labour leaders' private offices. He denounced Tony Blair's "personal blind Prescott's personal blind fund, Gordon Brown's, we held our breath. But even Mr Shaw did not have the nerve to mention Dav id Blunkett. Even more depressing was hearing the Home Secretary-support his new Criminal Records Agency, which will offer citizens "criminal record certificates" to prove they are crime free.

(These will cost about 6. A luxury, executive-style "enhanced" criminal record certificate will cost you 8. People doing voluntary work, such as Scout leaders, will have to buy and provide certificates. Many MPs, not all Labour, thought that this would be deeply discouraging for people who only wanted to give their time and effort. Mr Howard smiled oleagi-nously.

"It is in the nature of volunteers that they are generous and public spirited," he murmured. So if we want to help our neighbours (or in many cases, get a job) we are going to have to fork out our own money to buy back our own reputation. Even George Orwell didn't think of that. But Michael Howard did. THE Chancellor.

Kenneth Clarke, was pushed on to the defensive over his pre-election handling of the economy last night after the Bank of Eng-land called for higher interest rates now to keep prices under control over the next two years. Overshadowing a further 67,800 fall in the official jobless total, the row between Mr Clarke and the Bank came fully into the open yesterday when the Chancellor made it clear that he had no intention of putting the brakes on the economy. The City said Mr Clarke's tough line meant dearer bor rowing this side of polling day was out of the question. Shelves at a Smith outlet Simon Hoggart A DEEPLY depressing day in the Commons. David Winnick (Lab.

Walsall N) introduced a bill which is unlikely to become law because its Second Reading is scheduled for May 1 We may have other things on our minds that day. However. 10-Minute Rule bills, as they are known, are not legislation but propa ganda. They are Chinese wall posters. "Denounce the Scab-Ridden Hyenas of the Conser vative "Join hands in saluting the tremendous achievements of the Five Year Plan, 1992-97!" Mr Winnick's bill could have been entitled.

"Let usex-pose the machinations of the evil lackeys in the capitalist conspiracy It is designed to make political parties more candid about their funding. Or rather, to make the Conser vative Party more candid about its funding. Both parties are in agree ment: whereas their own fund ing is entirely honest, decent and fragrant in every way. the other side is paid by a secret network of fraudsters, carpetbaggers, influence-peddlers and general sleazeballs. For this reason, an MP who makes a speech on the topic generally denounces the other side in much the same terms that the other side denounced him.

But Mr Winnick did have some intriguing facts and figures. For instance, back in 1993 a Tory MP had declared that the Conservative Party was "too open" about its finances, and suggested more secrecy. Since the MP was Graham Riddick, who agreed to take 1 .000 for tabling a parliamentary question, his views obviously carry some weight. We knew that Asil Nadir, the fugitive from justice, had given the Conservative Party 440,000 much of it probably stolen and that the party-has seen no need to repay any change since previous month, UK 10 100 FMAMJ ASONDJ 1996 97 policy must look beyond short-term effects and ensure that underlying inflation is consistent with the target Once the short-term effects have worked their way through, the strength of do the usually lucrative world of porn. In the past three years readership of Penthouse has dropped by almost half, and the only two titles that are audited, Fiesta and Knave, have seen sales drop by about a third.

Carl Snitcher, chief executive of Paul Raymond Publi cations, which owns Mayfair and six other adult monthlies, said: "While we would have preferred them not to have done this, the effect is mini mal. We sell the most in stations and airports and they will continue." He denied that his magazines for which sales figures were not available of applause. The use of headsets at Hong Kong Stadium to keep the decibel level down was first tested last month at a music awards event organised by a local radio station. Hoots of derision yesterday met the proposal to mute Elton John. "You the maCazlnes soon to be removed from most shops because, Smith clears pom magazines off its Move due to falling demand not Mosaic view of how the poor live morals, says newsagent chain yesterday carrying some of have been the target of high-protile anti-pornography campaigns.

A Smith spokesman said: "The reason is purely one of logistics. We stock 1,500 magazines and new ones are coming out all the time. We have to make a decision about what we have got room for on our shelves and we try to make room for the ones that sell best. Titles that aren't selling have to be replaced. it's nothing to do with ethics.

If it was then we would says Smiths, of falling demand were suffering declining sales. "As far as we are concerned the market is buoyant. We are very happy with it. "Loaded and the other men's lifestyle magazines are certainly more raunchy, but I don't think they've had an effect on our sales." Ann Mayne. campaign coordinator of the Campaign Against Pornograpy.

welcomed Smith's decision but added that WH Smith was still the largest distnbu tor of pornographic-magazines. She said: "We are pleased because we know it will cause fewer parents and children to see the magazines." might as well stay at home," complained Dale Rennie, a local concert promoter. "The whole vibe of a concert is to roar when people roar, to scream when all around you scream, to pick up everyone else's energy. If you are wearing earphones ou are not going to hear even the person next to you." The legislator behind the plan, Fred Li, turned a deaf ear. "The audience for Elton John is not made up of teenagers, his fans are people like me," said Mr Li, aged 41.

"I don't scream. I don't shout." He said some 15,000 people close to the stage would probably be able to hear without earphones. Hong Kong Stadium, modernised at huge expense in 1994 but rarely used because of noise restrictions, holds up to 40,000 people. "This is a place that lets jackhammers pound away all day outside your window and jumbo jets roar in only PHOTOGRAPH SEAN SMITH shelves Penthouse Readership thousands 400 1J93 1994 1995 1996 200 metres above apartment buildings but can't accept the occasional concert," said Mr Rennie. "The whole thing is absurd." Noise restrictions imposed by the environmental department make it illegal to play music louder than 70 decibels in the afternoon and 65 in the evening about half the level needed for manv rock concerts.

Newspapers that have curbed their critical thunder in recent weeks in deference to China's approaching new order judged it safe yesterday to criticise the proposal to muffle Elton John on June 28 and 29. The English-language South China Morning Post scoffed: "To ensure success, gags and gloves should be included to deaden the noise in case Fans are tempted to sing along to the music on their headsets or clap to the rhythm. Slippers should be issued to protect foot tappers." have taken them out of all stores." The four adult magazines would still be available at the chain's 100 railway station and airport shops and could be ordered at any of its outlets. The spokesman added: "Our policy is very much that if people want to read something we make it available. We don't make judgments about what people should and should not read." Whether the decline is due to men's increased embarrassment at buying such magazines in public places or to a decline in overall interest, Smith's decision high lights an impending crisis in tuned to a live broadcast.

Hong Kong vibrates year round to a deafening din of construction, traffic and low-flying aircraft but is hyper-sensitive to the sound of rock music. Fans attending a festival of Cantonese pop had to wear gloves to muffle the sound Aim Bollos THE nations High Streets witnessed the end of an era yesterday as Smith cleared out its top shelves" of pornographic magazines. The newsagent chain said it would no longer stock Penthouse, For Women, Playboy or Mayfair because of falling demand. It denied that the decision was arrived at for moral reasons, even though outlets Don't go breaking our ears, Elton told, as Hong Kong stadium bosses plan to make concert audience listen on headsets Ami raw Hlgglns in Hong Kong ELTON JOHN, booked to serenade Britain's impe rial retreat from Hong Kong at the end of June, has been told to keep the volume down so far together largely by gossip, memories and death: people still come collecting door to door for funeral wreaths. It is the kind of territory the Irish writer, Paul Mercier, has lately explored in Dublin-based plays such as Buddleia and Kitchensink; the tension between a lingering sense of communal identity and a volatile society in which drugs, crime and unemployment are key issues.

What Gill has to say is unde niably important. But he never quite solves the problem inherent in this kind of theatrical mosaic, which is that characters constantly swim in and out of focus. In many ways, this kind of group portrait is better suited to the expansiveness of fiction or television, where the interlocking storylines have room to breathe What holds the evening together is Gill's anger at social decay, his not uncritical portrait of his native Cardiff, and the elegant simplicity of his own production, in which certain actors stand out Actually, it is the faces you remember: Kenneth Cranham, close-cropped and sad-eyed as the disillusioned priest; June Watson, wrapped in her solitude as the grieving Stella; Melanie Hill and Mark Iewis Jones as a married couple locked together in wounding torment. It is not an easy evening but it is salutary to be reminded of the pain and anger felt by the new poor in a relatively neglected pocket of our septic isle. Michael Billington Cardiff East Cottesloe PETER GILL'S Cardiff East has been dubbed an Under Milk Wood for the nineties.

But the comparison is totally misleading. Lacking Dylan Thomas's ribaldry and exuberance as well as his faint whimsy. Gill's play is a som bre, quietly angry account of a day in the life of a Cardiff working-class community suf-fering from malign neglect The first half, frankly, is tough going. It confronts us with 16 characters in a form of theatrical montage and it takes time to work out both the family relationships and the key characters. What is clear is that the marriage of Shirley and drunken, unem ployed Billy is going through hell, that Stella is grieving over the mysterious death of her son Bobby, and that Michael, who spent 15 years in a seminary, is the neighbourhood's resident confessor, to whom everyone brings their problems.

At first I felt like a newcomer to a community trying to catch up on years of accumulated gossip; or a visitor from abroad suddenly trying to plug in to a Welsh version of Coronation Street. But, in the second half, Gill's purpose gradually becomes clear. He is uttf.ring a lament for a working class community that has seen families fall apart, is economically deprived and mor ally confused, and is bound Hong Kong vibrates to construction, traffic and aircraft noise, but Elton John is too loud down that fans will he given radio headsets to hear the music. To avoid disturbing residents, whose complaints last year torpedoed a Rolling Stones concert, the directors of Hong Kong Stadium want the audience to listen through earphones jHHIHll.