The Guardian from London, Greater London, England • 1

mil i XJTmi 1 1 I I I -m. Printed in London and Manchester Saturday March 6 1982 20p Steve The Television Man Page 9 Strange's odd scene Page BTT Page 15Y -TN, eggs'" Paisley party is humiliated Tax concessions for investors would boost Heseltine's policies Building society loan rate set for 1.5pc cut Z2 and put them over all my posters in North Antrim." The poor performance of the Democratic Unionist Party and Mr McCrea regarded as the most popular figure in the party after Mr Paisley was the only surprise in the result. Mr Cook, for the Alliance, did well to hold his party's vote The Catholic candidace the predominantly Protestant constituency, Dr AJasdair McDonnell of the Social, Democratic and Labour Party, gained a few hundred votes to come fourth. The Ulster Loyalist Democratic Party the political wing of the paramilitary Ulster Defence Association Budget to pump in inner city the sex scandal at the Kin-cora boys' home. The byelection, to fill the vacancy left by the murder of the sitting MP, the Reverend Robert Bradford, was seen as a vital test of strength between the old Protestant Establishment as represented by the Official Unionist Party and Mr Paisley's Democratic Unionist Party.

As it transpired, Mr McCrea, a renowned gospel singer, polled barely half Mr Smyth's vote and was beaten into third place by Mr David Cook, deputy leader of the non-sectarian Alliance Party. A triumphant Mr Smyth said afterwards that the turn in the electoral fortunes of the Official Unrionists meant "we are on the march back to represent the people of Ulster." The party leader, Mr James Molyneaux whose leadership was believed by many observers to hang on the outcome of the byelection said "It seems the people of Belfast do not like singing on their doorstep." Mr Smyth fight after his victory Mr Paisley, claiming that Mr McCrea had been the victim of an official Unionist "whispering campaign," insisted that as it was the first time his party had contested the South Belfast seat, "we have done very well." He added It was the most filthy campaign I have been in since the Unionist Party printed photographs of Hitler help reduce the unemployment figures." The tax concessions would coincide with the launch earlier this week of BIC Business in the Community By David Simpson, City Correspondent The cost of loans looks certain to be cut next week. bringing down mortgage rate from the current record level of 15 per cent, which has prevailed since November 1, to 13.5 per cent. The cut in mortgage rates has been expected after last week's half point cut in base rates by the High Street banks. But there were strong indications yesterday that the reduction will be greater than originally forecast.

Pressure to cut the rate by one and a half per cent could be increased by another fall in bank interest rates, next week, ahead of Friday's monthly meeting of the Building Societies Association. It now seems probable that the clearing banks will cut another half point from their current 13.3 Surveyors agree to competition and City Notebook, page 18 per cent base rates immediately after Tuesday's Budget speech. The main indicator of the mortgage rate fall was given by Mr Clive Thornton, the chief general manager of Abbey National, the second largest building society in the country, who said yesterday that a reduction of only one per cent would be unacceptable. Mr Thornton's sentiments were echoed by other leading building societies, although some smaller societies sug-gested that they would oppose any reduction at all in mortgage rate. The final outcome of the BSA's deliberations could rest with the Chancellor.

Sir Geoffrey Howe. One factor in the decision will be the target for national savings for 198283. which Sir Geoffrey will announce on Tuesday If he announces that the national savings target for the new fiscal year is 3.5 billion this year's target or more, the threat of increased competition for consumer savings may deter the building Turn to back page, col. 2 ADVERTISEMENT Couofit down It is clearly unacceptable that the unemployed should continue to bear so much of the burden, while the incomes of those at work continue to rise." Economists from the leading schools of thought contend in an Agenda Page joust about the likely outcome of Tuesday's Budget. High fliers Most people's memories of kite-fiying are not good.

But the arrival of low-tech aerodynamic kites has spawned a new generation of enthusiasts. Guardian Women examines the new fashion. Sot touch Workface looks at the changing face of debt-collection women only. Apres-budget After the shock, the sober facts. Guardian journalists spell out in detail what the Budget will mean to industry, to the country, and to you.

China today Anna Karenina on the television, competition in sport, and even the communes turned over, to private enterprise. John Gittings returns from Peking with a major report on the legacy of Deng Xiao-ping. POH HELP THE AGED Look into the future with me Ludovic Kennedy From David Beresford, in Belfast THE REVEREND Ian Paisley's aspirations to the leadership of Ulster's Protestant community suffered a serious setback yesterday when his candidate was humiliated in the South Belfast byelection. Fists flew at City Hall as the Reverend Martin Smyth, vice-president of the Official Unionist Party and Grand Master of the Orange Order, was announced the winner, polling 7,305 votes more than the Paisley candidate, the Reverend William McCrea, who came third. Police had to Intervene in the melee in which a former Lord Mayor, Mr John Carson of the Official Unionists, was punched in the mouth but no arrests were made.

The fighting reflected the viciousness of the election campaign, which has been affected by of political involvement in Kremlin drops unions chief From Dusko Doder in Moscow The" trade' uhi'oh leader, Mr Alexei Shlhayev, was unexpectedly dismissed from his post yesterday amid rumours that a power struggle was going on in the Kremlin. The decision was taken at a plenary session of the trade unions' central council and was announced by the news agency, Tass. Soviet sources said that Mr Shi-bayev, aged 67, was not present at the meeting. The shake-up, 10 days before the trade unions begin their 17th Congress in Moscow, was seen as highly unusual. Three days ago, the central committee journal, Agitator, carried a long article by Mr Shibayev about union plans.

An estimated 127 million Soviet citizens belong to the union. Mr Shibayev had been identified by Western analysts as a protege of President Brezhnev. As first Secretary of the Saratov Oblast on the Volga, Mr Shibayev backed Mr Brezhnev in 1964 in bis effort to remove Khrushchev from power. He was appointed chairman of the Soviet Trade Unions in 1976. Tass gave no explanation for Mr Shibayev's removal, but diplomats speculated that it reflected the recent jockeying for positions after the death of Mikhail Suslov.

the second man in the Soviet party. There are no indications of any challenges to Mr Brezhnev, who is the dominant figure likely to remain so as long as his health lasts. Embarrassing rumours involving members of Mr Brezhnev's family have recently been circulated, including a scathing satirical article on the Soviet leader's publicistic writings and his permanence in office despite his advanced age. In the absence of official information rumours in Moscow have produced an atmosphere suggesting Byzantine intrigues in Soviet society. Much of the speculation in informed circles centres on the sudden rise of the Politburo member, Mr Konstantin Chernyenko, a Brezhnev protege, and the equally sudden fading from public view of Turn to back page, col.

7 can be made to the 17 county cricket associations. No clear decision was reached yesterday but the board must find a form of words making it clear that none of the players will be picked for England again without leaving itself open to a legal action for "restraint of trade." Legal action cost English cricket 200,000 during the Kerry Packer court battle over a similar ban. The board already knows that anything less than a ban on the players will lead to a cancellation of this summer's Indian and Pakistan tours, which will be financially ruinous to the game. No. substi an organisation which aims to encourage companies to become more involved in local economic and social development.

The organisation, which in cludes the chairmen and chief executives of many of Britain leading firms, is one way in which Mr Heseltine hopes to make major companies more responsive to their local com munities. The Secretary of State has made no secret of his concern over one of the causes of inner-city decline the new industrial conglomerates whose head offices are far away from their factories' and plants. About 70 per cent of people working in manufacturing in Liverpool, for example, are employed by companies whose headquarters are situated somewhere else, usuany London. The further a plant is from close. This has made the inner cities of the UK even more vulnerable than those in America, where federal regulations, which restrict inter-state savings and loans businesses, have ensured each big inner city area has it own local banks.

Tax concessions to businesses which invest in the innercity are an obvious counter to the present trend. Tax concessions were pro posed by the "gang of 25," a group or senior manager nuiu the big banks, building societies, insurance companies, and pension funds who are on Turn to back page, col. 1 Vaughan is moved DR GERARD VAUGHAM, above, the Health Minister was moved sideways yesterday to become Minister for Consumer Affairs to succeed Mrs Sally Oppenheim. His replacement is Mr Kenneth Clarke, one of bright younger hopes of the Tory Left. Report, back page 5 MASKED MARCHERS Students in the image of Sir Keith Joseph on a grants demon-stratum from London University to Hyde Park.

Report, page 2. Picture by Frank Martin NEWS IN BRIEF signally failed in its first entry into a parliamentary election, The results, in that they favour moderates, suggest a Dossible swine from the politi cal polarisation in Northern Ireland which accompanied last vear's huneer strike. Results: Martin Smyth (OUP) 17.123: David Coon ALL) 11,726: William jnewea rnilDl Al ft. aiactair McDnnnel (SDLP! 3.839: John McMichael (UXDP) 576: Br'an Caul (United Labour) 303; Jagat Naram (One Human Family) 137: Simon Hall-Ralelqht (Peace State) 12. There was a 66.21 per cent poll Picture, back page Police acquittal FIVE members of the Hum-berside Drug Squad were acquitted of drug charges but face internal action.

Page 3. Wall Street THE Dow Jones industrial index in New York was down 0.19 points at the close at 807.36. Markets, page 20. INSIDE Business and Finance 18-20 Crosswords 7 Home News 2-4. 24 Letters 8 Overseas News 5.6 Sports News 21-23 WEEKEND REVIEW 9-16 Arts, reviews 10 Bridge 15 Chess 15 People 11 Travel 12, 13 Women 15 TV RADIO 16 ENTERTAINMENTS 14 PERSONAL 7.

21 The weather CLOUDY, with some rain. Details, back page. on the tour was hardly the "household name" player the organisers had claimed. A competent batsman, Humpage had recently been playing for the Orange Free State. He played in all three Prudential Internationals against Australia last June.

Barbados joined Jamaica yesterday in banning any of the touring side from visiting them. The Jamaican Government formally notified the West Indies- Cricket Board of Control that it would not allow any of the rebel cricketers to enter the country to participate in cricket or any sport. The dirty dozen, page 17; Taking Humpage, page 22 By Malcolm Dean Sir Geoffrey Howe is expected in his Budget next Tuesday to bow to pressure and offer tax concessions to companies prepared to invest in inner cities. Mr Michael Heseltine, the Secretary of State for the Environment, has been searching for new sources of investment for the inner cities for nearly a year. His cabinet colleagues, however, have ruled out any further increase in public expenditure.

Tax concessions would be an ideal backdoor solution to Mr Heseltine's problem. -And with the anniversary of the Brixton riot only four weeks away, the pressure on the Government to demonstrate some progress on SCOTLAND and Wales have learnt the hard way how to come to terms with a recession and are now reaping some of the benefits. Will the rest of the United Kingdom be as successful asks Victor Kccgan in Pre-Budget Britain. Page 17; Budget speeches, page 2. regenerating inner city areas has increased.

Urban policy-makers expect to see corporation tax and petroleum revenue tax concessions in the Budget. One Whitehall official said yesterday It is a perfect Conservative solution capitalism will be seen to be alive and well and providing solutions to problems which public expendture has blatantly failed to resolve. Moreover, it should also generate jobs and Saudis' oil cut gesture By John Andrews Energy Correspondent Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, has reduced its production ceiling by 1 million barrels a day to 7.5 million, the Kuwait oil minister, Sheikh Ali Khalifah al-Sabah, said yesterday. Sheikh Ali, who visited Crown Prince Fahd in Saudi Arabia last month, said that the reduction had been made by the Saudis "in response to a request from Kuwait." The Saudi action, which apparently came into effect this week, is a goodwill gesture to help other members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) who have seen their oil revenue drop because of the continuing fall in the world demand for oil. Its practical effect will be limited since it is widely believed that Saudi Arabia's actual output has already fallen below the new ceiling.

The present world oil glut is estimated at about. 3 million barrels per day. The glut this week forced Britain to reduce the price of North Sea oil by 11.4 cents to $31 a barrel, which is $3 a barrel cheaper than the Saudis charge for inferior oil. Sheikh Ali and other Arab oil ministers are now in Qatar at an Arab energy, conference, where the main interest is in the informal consultation taking place to stave off the collapse of OPEC, which is threatened by the downward pressure on oil prices, This pressure, which has so far forced price reductions from Britain, Egypt, the US Venezuela, Iran and Mexico with more to follow, is such that the Saudis would need to reduce their output by at least another two million barrels a day if the OPEC pricing structure, based on the Saudi price, is to survive. School chaos THE TWO biggest teacher unions drew up a timetable for chaos in their attempt to get arbitration for their pay claim.

Back page; NALGO strike threat, page i Priest arrested POLAND has detained a priest for alleged connection with the killing of a policeman. Another priest has been gaoled for 31 years for slandering the Communist system. Page 5 Scott silence JAMES Anderton, the chief constable of Greater Manchester, refused to answer police committee questions about the protection of lorries crossing a picket at the Laurence Scott plant. Page 2. Go home' offer WEST Germany proposed financial incentives for guest workers to return home in the face of rising unemployment.

In the United States, the jobless total rose 8.8 per cent to 9.6 million to compound President Reagan's woes. Report, page 5 The board's legal adviser was at yesterday's meeting. Explaining the need to postpone the decision, the committee said This is a matter of such importance to international cricket in this country that the executive consider that sufficient additional time should be allowed for detailed and written recommendations, to be, produced by the committee and considered by the counties. "The executive committee's recommendations will refer to the eligibility', of the players for for future England teams." The addition of Humpage as the much heralded 13th man Tuife trial for Dublin GERARD Tuite, captured in the Republic of Ireland after escaping from Brixton Prison where he was awaiting trial on charges of causing IRA explosions, is to be tried in Dublin. Back page.

Leader quits THE LEADER of Merseyside County Council resigned after his Labour group refused to raise fares. Page 2. Shakespeare theft DISCERNING thieves stole valuable antiques from Anne Hathaway's Cottage, Back page. The Guardian MECHANICAL difficulties severely disrupted production of the Guardian on Thursday and again yesterday. We apologise to readers who were unable to obtain copies and to those whose copies were uncorrected.

tute touring, side could be found at such short notice. Tuesday's meeting of the board will go ahead and a resolution from Northamptonshire County Cricket Club recommending, that all the cricketers taking part in the tour should, have their registrations cancelled will be put to the meeting. Mr Peter the board spokesman, said that whether the 13 should be banned from county cricket was a matter for the individual counties to which they were contracted. The executive committee had only been concerned with the possibility of banning the players from Tests. You.

I hope, will be one of those who live 1o enjoy an active old age. But I would ask you to consider what it must be like for those who live into old age yet are prevented from enjoying it by constant loneliness, or are kept from activity by frailty. Will you look ahead and join me in doing something practical to reduce that penalty of age afflicting more old people. A legacy to Help the Aged's work can help with more medical work for the frail, day centres for the lonely, for the housebound, and a wide range of caring thoughtful service to restore the happiness- and active life that should be part of old age. Thanks to the tax concessions of rent budgets your bequest may not cost your estate its full value (up to 200,000 may now be left to charity and thereby excluded from Capital -Transfer Tax).

Help the Aged have prepared two helpful booklets on this subject. One on all the aspects you need consider before instructing your solicitor, and the other on how to reduce the effect of Capital Gains Tax, by making a bequest to charity. If you are considering your financial affairs and would like to help genuinely needly old people in Britain, or overseas, write for copies of the booklets and if it interests you, for details of the unique house bequest plan. They will gladly be sent without obligation. Please write to: Hon.

Treasurer, The Rt. Hon. Lord Maybray-King, HELP THE AGED Room G3L, FREEPOST 30, London W1E 7JZ (no stamp needed) Test ban on S. Africa tourists delayed By Paul Brown Legal advice is being sought by the Test and County Cricket Board on how to avoid an expensive court action should it decide to ban from Test cricket the English players now touring South Africa. The fate of the touring party, which became 13 yesterday with the addition of Geoff Humpage, the Warwickshire wicketkeeper, will net now be known until March 19.

Yesterday's executive committee of the board put off the decision from Tuesday's regular full board meeting to a special meeting 10 days later so' that detailed written recommendations vetted by lawyers.