The Observer from London, Greater London, England • 8

THIS OBSERVER SUW DAT, NOVEMBER 12, 19JA A I DltfB TO-NIGHT AT THB HOTEL RUSSELL, i RUSSELL W.C. Vocal and Instrumental Concert In the SPACIOUS WINTER QAUDBN. BOURNEMOUTH Grand Hotel. Central Position tor Sen, Pier, Gardens and all Amusement. Meals on Verandah.

Telegrams Grand, Bournemouth) Telephones 2001. POSITIONS PEOSEECTS IN THE WAB. and air. There must be a' new nation! awakening to the "real character and length of the Titanic task that lies before us. The reasons for this situation are not obscnr Temporary factors, no doubt, have been against us.

The rains.Jiave been worse than in previous autumns; The mists have" hindered our aircraft and baulked our artillery. indescribable mud and waterlogged shell hoJet the dreaiygoundhtts. been turned intoT slough of desolation. When we snatch a new gain here and' there it is hard to entrench n. blunders which prolong this struggle mean an unexampled forfeit in human lives as well aa in the lesser treasure.

II. MORE DANGER OF A DRAGGING STRUGGLE. But what's done is done; The clear' conclusion from a study of events during the last few weeks is that the war will in any case be greatly prolonged by comparison with even the more sober hopes entertained before October-. The paramount necessity here and elsewhere is that the Alliod Governments shall take thorough counsel together on the means for shortening the war, and shall come to a. vigorous decision upon the lines we shall presently discuBs.

Otherwise the struggle, which, in our definite opinion, "must now last beyond the three years' term, might just possibly drag on beyond the fourth year. Victory would only be achieved at the furthest date and at the utmost conceivable prioe. Of the passive, determination to endiure which cements the solidarity of the Grand Alliance we are well assured, but from that combination as a whole, and above all from our own Government, we must -insist on more active determination and more trenchant resource. The last campaigns will be the hardest. Thifl cotmitry, after all the mighty efforts it has made, will have to rise to giant heights of new strength and sacrifice before we shall have shaped the final guarantees for the attainment of our unshakable purpose.

As The Obssbver has been, bo it remains, optimist enough about the eventual issue of the war, but we have never admired its general management by the Allies. As it happens, about this struggle and the true means of waging and winning it, we have written many things which time has verified. Wo never wrote a sounder thing than, when, nearly twenty months ago, we took as the watchword of all our thinking this statement "that the enemy was not more deceived about the issue than were the Allies about the cost, and that there would be a fight to stagger humanity before Germany went down." Unless the full significance of that view sinks into the minds of the statesmen on the side of the Allies, who are still more responsible than the soldiers and sailors, not even another year from now will see Germany under; we shall be deep in the campaign of 1918 before we come in sight of the finish of our business. If that must be it must be. Then not only the British Empire, but the whole Grand Alliance, we' are convinced, will face the necessity with hearts of steel and inexorable resolve.

But, as we have said again and again, if the war does indeed drag put beyond 1917, that fact will be a burning reproach to the statesmanship and generalship of the Allies and a crime against the patriotism of their peoples. III. THE SPIRIT OF THE BRITISH OFFENSIVE. Before we develop what is vital in these considerations and sharpen the moral as-respects future necessities of let-us review briefly the recent facts of the war and seek to give a conspectus of the present state of the conflict. We take the theatres in their order from the North' Sea, by the Adriatic and the Danube to the main Russian front.

First, the West, which must engage the larger part of our attention. On the very first day of the Somme offensive, thrilling and great as was that hour and apt to carry feeling away, our deliberate warning in these columns was, We shall not sweep." Our estimate predicted slow but real progress at a moment when even many British and French, were aB over-sanguine a virtuous fault as they had been on the eve of every other offensive. They thought far-reaching and perhaps decisive advance might be made with the rush of a military revolution. Britain had only begun to fight in earnest on the 1st of July. When this long-continued scries of war articles was for a short while interrupted, the struggle had continued over three months.

It was-beyond comparison the mightiest, the most heroic struggle in all the history of our race. The whole sea-wide stock, from top to bottom, from the centre to tho verges of the Empire, showed a capacity past all our dreams for irresistible insistence and death-defying sacrifice. The new armies, by sheer military aptitude, shook, startled, awakened the Germans. In that immortal attack, no matter what the miscalculations, the excessive casualties, the seeming waste in the first inexperienced movements not a day but was worth while. Poor of soul and imagination must bo anyone at home who can think otherwise or hint disparagement.

Not by bread alone does man live; not alone by mechanical efficiency live nations. Bleep-less everlasting improvement in gross and detail, efficiency to the utmost must be added to the rest, but never is it acquired to the full except by the pain, suffering and necessity which purge insight unto keener vision and quioken every fibre. For all moral purposes now and here after, the effect of tho British part in the first three mouths of the Somme offensive was priceless. The material results were limited, but of high importance in direct gains; invaluable in ways indirect. The enemy's best forces were broken in positions as formidable as any held in tho wholo of Europe.

For the first tiine in this war he wae temporarily overmatched in technique, as in spijt in gunnery, aircraft, in an inventive appliance like the "Tanks," as in fighting fibre. A first definite stage was won when the crowning ridges of the Albert plateau were mastered and crossed' from between Thiepval and Combles to within striking' distance of Bapaume. IV. FRANCE AND THE VINDICATION. Before July the unlike ourselves, had given their full In the ordeal of Verdun they had been wrought, as by furnace and forge, to still purer metal and to perfected temper.

Shoulder to shoulder with us on the Somme these allies of ours, now brethren by blood-rites as sacred as were ever exchanged between two nations, went forward with equal valour and with' their own alrnost incomniunioable touch of exquisite, yet deadly, skill. South of-the Somme they have continued between Barleux and Chaiilnes successes which play a notable part for covering purposes, out cannot of themselves' clinch the main arguniei, the Somme, however, where that main argument is in dispute, the French, in contact with ourselves, pressing on by drive after driveXhaye passed the national road; south of Bapaume, and. have enveloped the woody rise of St." Pierre Vaast. That redoubtable position once mastered and it will take some mastering the French position will be nearly as imminenT) a menace to Peronne as is our. present position to Bapaume.

These direct gains are by far than any German offensive in the West has been able to achieve since the Battle of the Marne. a But the indirect result of the Somme offensive been more momentous. German plans and hopes on the Me use were 8haEeredand annihilated. Verdun was saved with an effect on the soul of France memorable as when Joan the Maid raised the siege ofOr leans The Crown Prince had to stomach the bitterness of humiliating and disastrous defeat. And not only that.

In the last few weeks we have seen at Verdun the splendid return of the French upon the enemy and the recap tureinja day or two at Douaumont and Vaux of- what ithad taken the Germans months to oohquerr There is here the true immortal stuff of 'memory and example. It is of the things that live and act and serve the -future hour," likethe desperate splendour of the national uprising in 1792, when the fortunes which the rest of Europe-thought lost were reversedTn a few months, and the young conscripts f4ae Revolution triumphed on all the invaded frontiers of France. So much in vindication, were it needed, of what has been attempted and done on the Somme. It has been a glorious chapter. it is a chapter that is closed.

A- new chapter is opening. It will deal with- conditions veiy different. Recent local successes, such as the capture of the Regina trench, reporteoLbSi1, Douglas Haig yesterday, are rather "lifee- connecting operations between one weltmarked struggle and another. V. AFTER THE BATTLE.

SOMME For all practical purposes what history will call the Battle of the Somme ceased few weeks ago. Like the battles of the Aisne and Ypres, it passed but owing to a graduat-but profound change in the conditions. Insensibly an altogether altered situation wasereated Since the early part of October there has -been an aftermath of trench attacks, TSfany little gains have been made. It has been, however, relatively to the scope of the jsara time of small things Jixcept at Verdun, very few German prisoners have swelled the Allies' previous captures. The enemy has fought better than ever fought witb-pluck and brain so that' we trust, indeed, there will be no more facile trash about the supposed' demoralisation and broken spirit of thefoe.

So far from being broken, his morale has recovered from the shaEngwe had given him between July and October. As a result of this and other factors Which we shall state, the prospect before us is harsh and stern. It would be not only futile, but dangerous, to blink its In our last survey five weeks ago we examined two propositions. We showed that there was not the slightest, faintest chance of breakingthrough the brerman lmes in the presentTsumpaign. Tn next question was whether extensive German withdrawal in the West could be forced before Christmas.

This seemed more possible. But as we then showeduitdepended upon the ability of the Allies in the last three months of the year October-December to double their previous rate of advance? Was it not just conceivable that they might do this after mastering the main two years of German ability and toil 1 The five weeks which have elapsed since we put that question have given the an8KfrvrIt is plain, and unmistakable. The Alliessp far from being able to double their rate of advance, nave naa to siow aqwn in so marxed a manner that, as we have said, the battle of the Somme has ceased and there must be a new battle with a new character before there caB-be-Tany important change in the present situation of arrested development. Towards that ancient barrow or tumulus, the Butte de -Warlencourt, now battered out of feature, and towards Lo Transloy our men are nearer Bapaume on two sides. Bapaume may, of in the next few just as-he French may lo dge themselves beyon t.

ier reVaast in a more threatening position 7 If, indeed, these things are accomplished, such further gam of positions will be important for next year's purposes. But we must again give the straight reply to the real jjuestion. Not only will there be no Throughbreak nor anything like it by the Allies in the West this year, but between now and Ohristmas-there. will be no extensive withdrawal of the Gerhmn lines between Arras and Noyon. VI.

THE FIRM OF HINDENBURG AND LUDENDORFF." Thus the least that up to the beginning of October had been hoped forTiis aMHiaut and momentous finish to the present, campaign will Lnot be achieved. It is, on the contrary, oertain that great refeults can only be realised even in the next campaign by more tremendouaefforta than the Franco-British armiesTiave yet and above all by a more powerful intellectual management -of the war as a whole. Now and henceforth we must state these-aeaiities with uncompromising This-xount iyoT ours has immense reserves and an mdomitable heart. We mean to win and we shall, but we rmust-faoe the-evident presuThpjion of a war il IT'. luuog oi; mo wnvu ueuao.i.ycar iar into 1918.

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LQXBONi SVXDAY, HOVBMSES It, J91i. THE AMERICAN ELECTION. If ibo tone of tho American electoral csm-paltn was on the whole tame, local and below the level of tho world-crisis, tho finish 'has been one oi tie most exciting and remarkable affairs in the reoorda of democracy, TJie mdarect con-txeotion of the contest with tie war-issues and tha future of civilisation mado the spectacle of a people so evenly at loeeerheads far more exbraiorfiiiMtTy than tJhe similar deadlock of forty jwevrs ago. Then a solution was wrested in favosa of the Republicans by the aid of a little sharp practice. Now, after more than a gen oration, the Democrats have scored their tit-for-tat by what vt first sight might well seem a fluke.

That nearly seventeen millions of electors swayed by the most complex cross-currents due to locality, Interest and feeling) should divide in a way so nearly balanced tihat a hair might turn the scale, suggests in the political sphere nothing so much as the mysterious and subtle activities of some such demon-sorter as has b'odn imagined in a more scientific medium. America will long remember how Mew and the East seemed beyond all doubt to have carried Mr. Hughes, and how the later returns from the Middle West and West were a stupefying prize-packet whence emerged gradually the actual re-election of Mr. Wilson, He might still be upset the Republicans were determined to make a rigid use of the technical possibilities, but as a small relative majority of tho total popular vote is unquestionably against the Republicans and in favour of the President, Mr. Hughes's friends may well think it wiser to allow the present result to stand.

Otherwise Mr. Hughes's position, wcro he indeed on a narrow technical plea declared rightful occupant 'of White House, would be in the last degree unenviable. Though the closeness of the polling has been astonishing, the general upshot is what was expected. Our American information had led us to take the view in these columns that the upshot was anybody's game, but that, on the whole, President Wilson was the more likely to win. He hag represented the undoubted desire of the vast majority of the people of the United States to keep out of the war.

Whether a stronger policy on the Lusitania and the whole submarina problem would have been compatible with keeping out of the war is open to question. On that head his own people once for all have given the President the benefit of tho doubt. The result is a sheer personal triumph. Four years ago Mr. Wilson owed his success to the Republican split and was the choice of a pronounced minority.

Now he has secured a largo proportion of the Progressive vote formerly given to Colonel Roosevelt. In a word, his party has not carried Mr. Wilson in this 'election, but Mr. Wilson has carried his party. A consequent immense increase of personal prestige may now give him a public influence muoh greater than before and Buoh as very few of his predecessors have possessed.

For this country any American President" when elected is no longer a party leader, but tho head of one of the greatest and most interesting human societies that have ever existed. Apart from that the Allies have certainly no reason to regret tlie result. For Germany Mr. Wilson was the most-hated man." In the United States a mass of Mr. Wilson's most vehement opponents were the bitterest enemies of Britain and of the Allies' c-Luse.

In this respect tho vital principle of "America first" has been vindicated against all hyphenated extremists whether German or Irish. Mr. Hughes did not disclose a definito policy of his own, but rather on the strength of the demerits attributed his rival he asked for a blank cheque, such as democracy is rarely inclined to give. Whether the Republicans would have done better had they adopted Colonel Roosevelt for candidate, with a progressive programme only a little less bold than that of four years ago, is an interesting speculation. We must never forget that last week he carried with him to the polls, though in strange company, hosts of citizens who are amongst the strongest pro-Allies of them all.

As things have turned out it is obviously by no means unlikoly that Mr Roosevelt will bo the Republican candidate four ycarB hence. Before that time Mr. Wilson will have an unprecedented opportunity to write his name muoh larger on the page of history. There is no other wish on this side but that the American people under his rule may advance from strength to strength. For our part, we shall not easily abandon the hope that the United States sooner rather than later may ftrlfH its unavoidable destiny as" one of the world's Great Powers by taking a leading part in the establishment and maintenance of 'such a new international order, based on the inviolable faith of treaties, ae may go far to save mankind on both sides of more than one ocean from wider wars and to save all civilisation itself from the return to chaos.

A STERNER OUTLOOK AND WHY. THE HI DEN BURG REORGANISATION. ALLIES' ERR0BS IN THE EAST. THE 0EBTAINTY OF A LONG CONFLICT. THE NEED FOB A NEW AWAKENING.

AN OPENING STUDY. In three recent articlea a distinguished contributor, whoso identity has defied with amusing success all the speculations of the Press, has written in these pages from an independent Standpoint and examined the situation with knowledge, honesty end power. We differ from our contributor upon some details and on fundamentals with regard to Eastern policy, but he has undoubtedly rendered a national service by compelling serious opinion to face some disagreeable realities as they now stand after the thorough reorganisation under Hindenburg of all the forces and plans of the Central League. Weeks ago we showed the utter delusion of anticipating an early termination of the war, and at the same time wo combated the renewed pessimism of those who had previously based impossible expectations on the Somme offensive and the Galician campaign. Since then the general problem has been complicated and shadowed by the total disappointment of even the most reasonable hopes of speedy progress by the Allies on the side of ltoumania and the Balkans.

Between the fatuous complacency of the roseate view and the moody temper which makes the very best of the enemy's prospects and the very worst of our own, what is the country to believe? Not in jest, but in the extreme of earnestness, it asks "What is Truth?" Unlike Pilate, who would not wait, the average man sometimes feels that no waiting brings an answer. I. THE BALANCE-SHEET. We may well attempt that answer to-day when we return, after an unaccustomed interval, to our usual survey of the war at a moment when it behoves all good citizens to resettle their minds. Without abating a jot of courage and confidence, or yielding to the fatal spirit which insists rather on censure than on remedy, the people of this country must definitely face some disappointments and postpone some hopes.

They muBt fortify their patience and deepen their resolution. They must reokon afresh with the facts, get a new grasp of the means of victory and prepare themselves to meet drastic demands. Since these articles were interrupted five weeks ago much water has flowed under all bridges from the Somme to tho Danube. Some main questions which were left in suspense at. the beginning of October have been answered not altogether in accordance with the Allies' expectations and desires.

Since Hindenburg enomy, in Bpite 'of took command, the a desperate pressure on all his straitened reserves, has made the very best of his position in a way that only feeble dishonesty can deny. On the pther hand, instead of countering or anticipating Hindenburg while there was still time, the Allies have thrown back all their purposes in the whole war by making in the East about every blunder still left them to commit after a record of previous mismanagement which had seemed well-nigh exhaustive. This is fcho bad feature which the public mind has not sufficiently understood. Though a better policy is now in hand and tho worst may be happily avoided in Roumania, the Allies are on the defensive just where their offensive ought to have taken a triumphant turn. As a result of corftprchensive bungling and dilatoriness in the Balkan and adjacent theatres, the conflict will be prolonged by at.

least six months, both in East and West, at a cost to the Allies of several million avoidable casualties and of some thousands of millions of money which might have been saved. Again, as a result of the new outburst of German energy on all sides, and, of the culminating unity of direction achieved under the new system, the war will be still further protracted. These are the unvarnished realities of the case and they unmistakably mar the otherwise shining and splendid picture of tihiB year's concerted campaign by the Allies, At the same time, we roust not make too much of the very big blemish in the East. It is 'disagreeable, not disastrous. It postpones the Allies' hopes, but it does not jeopardise them.

At the frightful cost we have indicated the fault can be and will be made good. When it is thoroughly repaired, and only then, plain progress towards the final aim wilTbe resumed. In the meantime let the Allied Governmente remember even more acutely henceforth that they all pay for each other's mistakes that military and political Imperial Hotel On East Cliff. Highest Elevation. --Standing in Own Grounds.

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uiusn. iaese oonaiuons are more tavourable to the counter-attacks which the enemy deliver, 'i'Tnewed-spiritiasjluch more success. The temporary' influence of the weather, how. ever, is by no means the major factor in theW situation. -r At every point is being, felt the influence of the national reorganisation of Germany under the famous firm of Hindenburg and Ludea-dorff." These inseparables have proved HsT selves master-managers.

Under their guidance the army is working night.and day with fresa heart; behind them all Germany is workiBT" With ruthless tyranny the populations ofiti occupied territories of Belgium are being driven into the; workshops or on-iiu land, partly to swell the output of munitions, partly to release more Germans for military service; A sham kingdom of Poland ij being created in order that some hundreds 6ff'ftov sands of Poles, whom it is intended to -apish in the war and dupe in the settlement, may fit added to the legions of the Central Empires. The fighting strength of thW Turkish Empfe a mobilised and armed as never before to provius the Central Empires' with yet more menrfop uMiun aiM aiB flaisans, under Hinpeo. 7' iiuaenaorny wrer mmtary tions of Germany, Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria. Turkey are now one singly-controlled, nok tmguishable, inter-brigaded mass whiobwill be worked to the very last' onnce of eneigk We have not the slightest doubt that by, all these means' the Central: League wiUvaWgfsj together enough' men for at- least another year1, fighting. The statesmen and soldiers AllieB are bound to work' on that assumption.

-Any more complacent view would be The Allies must work.on the very esti- mate of their task, both aslio-length, and-difi. culty, and must reBolve here and -now. on fie supreme preparations. -GERMAN ENERGY AND THE MORAL. The managagfifm of Hindenbiirg iend LjidejrdorffcwkB'to than to" numbers.

On the Somme they -have multiplied tie heary -metal and sown the front ever more thickly with machine-guns. Far behind the present assailed front in the West the country brittle, with new works, while oiir.men recogriiseTEat every week sees an improvement.in the.e ot wajrd-lineBTJbe trenohes. afe and Efhejtered. and fitted the Crater, maaw i newly 5utthnber are being; brought up. is wrought into more ingenious, meshe tiaa -before.

Flocks of hew German aeroplane for both fighting and scouting have begun the uv contest ortheair that sooner, or- lafeKwas at aircraft are now imitating their allied rivals even in- with machine guns. It is equally certain tbU the Germans, with thedf magnificent metallurgical industry, will produce- for the next cu paign some formidable reply-1 Ne tramways and light railways are busily co structed. In other words, the side, of the. euear nothing is now overlooked, nothing neglt4 every conceivable reeouroe is exploitM.to tia -futi iT3iflermanj fire-trenches, 'efryot-knows, are now very lightly, held, and- the; eneoy is using every means to reduce bos- ws.uAltiei and-Jtjtnake hia whole infantry drgarnsBttf more nimble nTelSauicT Ludendbrff has Ven created many fresh divisions much as JQ! taken out of the. side of Adam by taking aysy three or four battalions froin the.

older idiviM to constitute new and to make a larger numbed of somewhat smaller units. But these i small units are not necessarily-much weaker selves, and the system ia on the whofe' sri c. provement. The smaller rliyisipns.arev stu than before in artillery and macbmeePibjaj' the arrangement is also means to ftfeSfe-0 the new fighting methods French and to faciIifcMfcJ inter-working of infantry, artillery and-inrcrft Tte-reMui8-Jiayjmei very u6efitfAquaBty" They learn. They'are now learning 'willi-every military lesson that has taae' tSem, not only by the French, but from formerly despised antagonist, no? and dreaded, the Britom' lt is "sj Well to it that we are argood in imitatfrjp improvement while bettef -and better if, it-iny be in point of originality.

If any of these remarks, can be disprove 4 01 modified we shall be very" happy to tokej correction. Our sole purpose in these cbiumw is to estamisn tne witnoui v-malice. We have made this estimate with Nothing material to itvis.fikelv to be shais No more need be said to, prove our main po that present campaign in the weet r. not.result before Chnftroas in modification of the German front; that even toe next campaign between the sea and the Y.og. will demand the utmost conceivable prep the war will; drag on far unless mighty things are' clone to bring it t3 end next year.

VIII A NOTE ON ITALY. We cannot now study the other anything Kke the detail. For Treatment each theatrelwbiild demand -r rate artiole. Let us note that the done grand work by their new advance ft of. Gorizia and on the Carso.

Another-" rmle-gaiaed-andJrheywill begin to threaten, earnest-tbe communications' -between and thecAustijianJield armies ok the ahw front Wo have little doubt ttaf'; very.