The Observer from London, Greater London, England • 2

THE OBSERVER, SUNDAY 5 JUNE 1983 3 i i uprwct nw THE TORIES I Crael sneers hurt and bewilder Foot Which of the items on this list do you think have been successes of the last four years of Conservative government and which have been failures long on the tour d' horizon but short on pithy fact has sounded like the voice of a bygone age. His speeches have been virtually the same themes, from Glasgow to Newcastle. But neither on unemployment nor on unilateral nuclear disarma SUCCESSES FAILURES rand'sland gj" g)J Mrs Thatcher's Tm CTT1 leadership EJJ UJl SB EDl ffl Falklands policy CFu CTtu since the war Ujl rA'TJ Combating CWm crime 11J VLfc Education T5J policy CjiJl Policy on (551 CTk old-age pensions UJl Health service mf lf policy tJ message over twin loud hailers at Ll1skeardfR Sounding out the voters Falkland war rated biggest TV blurs David Steel image MICHAEL FOOT must be a bewildered man this weekend. On Thursday, he looks like leading the Labour Party to its worst defeat since 1931. But for the past three weeks on the road, he has won rapturous standing ovations in packed halls, signed autographs for admirers in shopping precincts, and exchanged pleasantries with amiable passers-by.

'I have been in a different general election campaign to the one reported in the said Mr Foot with exasperation last week. He talked about the 'great enthusiasm he found at his meetings and reported an encouraging growth of activity among local Labour parties. The catastrophic opinion polls for Labour seem to come out of a hostile, alien world beyond his understanding. There is deep despair and growing anger in the Foot entourage. To an increasing degree, his arduous trek round Britain has been turned into a sad sideshow, and Labour's leader has found his dignity and authority undermined.

Last Thursday night in his home town of Plymouth, he was treated with indifferent brutality by a local television station. In a five-minute, live interview, he wanted to talk about unemployment in the West Country, but his young interviewer would have none of that nonsense. He preferred to grill Mr Foot on Denis Healey's Falklands outburst and then abruptly cut off Britain's potential Prime Minister before he could talk about the dole queues. This was no way to treat the leader of the second biggest party in the country. Certainly ROBERT TAYLOR reports on a personal tragedy for a civilised Mrs Thatcher would have had the interviewer's head on a platter for such treatment.

Mr Foot's efforts are no longer being treated seriously by a growing section of the media. But the cruel sneers belittle what is turning into a personal tragedy for a civilised man who deserves better. Ever since his campaign's heady start in Glasgow three weeks ago, Labour's leader has been on a crusade for the committed. Nobody who attends his evening meetings can doubt the genuine warmth and affection towards him from the party rank and file. More than any other Labour leader since George Lansbury, he reflects their own emotions and instincts.

An Old Testament fury overcomes Foot's cascade of words, but he is a mellower man than he used to be in his Bevanite days. Privately, Mr Foot detests David Owen, the deputy leader of the SDP, as a political adventurer, a leader in search of a party. He was hurt by Mr Owen's dismissive suggestion that he was 4 unfit to be Prime Minister. But Mr Foot seemed unwilling to wound in return, saying only that 4 the primary matter of concern in politics for David Owen was David Mr Foot's energies seem to be ebbing away in the final lap. He has lost any sense of direction.

It looks like the finale to a long career. From the beginning, Mr Foot's old-style campaigning has been strangely out of tune with the times. His often rambling, diffuse oratory Tory success ment has Mr Foot made any. noticeable progress. For all the furious activity, his campaign has lacked any inner dynamism.

Labour's leader kept failing to respond to the daily round of election cut and thrust. An astonishing lack of professional preparation has dogged the whole campaign. To Mr Foot, mass unemployment is an 4 a 4 a 4 but he lacks the intuitive grasp of how the crisis differs from the 1930s, when the young Socialist journalist scourged the Tory establishment. Nor does the issue arouse any more than dutiful applause from the party faithful, who dominate his meetings. It is only when he turns at the end to an uplifting peroration on world peace and unilateral disarmament that his audiences respond with enthusiasm.

But the party's own private polls reveal that Mr Foot's views on defence are not shared by many traditional Labour voters. People around him are already talking about the aftermath of defeat and the leadership succession, but it would be wrong and cruel to make Mr Foot the scapegoat for 9 June. Standing unbowed in the driving rain outside Rolls-Royce in Bristol last week without hat or umbrella to protect him, Mr Foot looked and sounded more like King Lear than Worzel Gummidge. Mr Steel blasts his ROBERT LOW hears complaints from the Alliance camp about media coverage Or rather it should look marvellous on television. Rightly or wrongly, Mr Steel is convinced that both BBC and ITN have been ignoring his daily contact with the people on their prime-time late evening news programmes, thus depriving the national audience of evidence, according to the Liberals, of growing grassroots support.

It is hard to see why Mr Steel should think the nation will be swayed by film of him shaking hands with people in Barnstaple, Bideford, Bodmin, St Austell and Liskeard, as he did on Friday. The trip ended with a long live interview on Television South West from Plymouth. The previous day's campaigning had included a phone-in on BBC's so Mr Steel wasn't exactly blacked out His concern illustrates how he is a media man to his fingertips, as befits one who began as a television presenter and is an acknowledged master at using the medium to communicate his message. That message has never deviated from the soothingly moderate, to the despair of some of the journalists cocooned on the Battlebus for the whole of the campaign: They have long since abandoned hope of getting any juicy copy out of him. Mr Steel's composure belied the flu that had set in overnight, though an hour's sleep on the Habitat sofa in the back of the coach seemed to perk him up.

The liveliest action took place when he was off-stage. A large 4 I'VE ONLY seen the top of his head so said the little old lady at the edge of the media scrum pressing round Mr David Steel in Bodmin on Friday. Never said her companion, 'he's got a lot of stature in other The sentiment might have been penned by a Liberal Party broadcast scriptwriter with a leaning towards the folksy, but it was spoken from the heart in an aside not meant for the ears of eavesdropping reporters. It is typical of the respect and affection Mr Steel evokes as he campaigns round the country. But the first speaker put her finger on the reason for Mr Steel's descent on Bodmin in his famous Battlebus.

As he disar-mingly admitted on Friday: The whole point of this exercise is that it looks marvellous on Account Nationwide Bonus Second-place Liberals play 34 XHIA downAlliance by PETER KELLNER DENIS HEALEY'S decision to raise the issue of the Falklands war has turned out to be an assault on the Conservatives' strongest position. As the election campaign reached its climax, The Observer Harris poll explored the public image of the Conservatives, first by discovering what electors considered the successes and failures of the past four years, and secondly by asking what expectations electors hold if the Conservatives are returned to power on Thursday On a list of eight issues, the one most widely rated a success was the Government handling of the Falklands war, as the chart shows. Seventy per cent of Conservative supporters counted it as one of the Government's successes, but so did significant minorities of those supporting Labour (28 per cent) and the Alliance (44 per cent). Conservatives gave a higher success rating to Mrs Thatcher's leadership (77 per cent), but her overall rating was pulled down by her lower score among Labour and Alliance supporters. If Labour decided to raise the Falklands issue at all it might have done better to argue against the Conservatives' policy since the end of the war.

Only 16 per cent list that among the Government successes. On all the issues we tested apart from the Falklands and Mrs Thatcher's leadership, the Government's record is perceived as either mixed or poor. The same numbers list economic policy a success as rate it a failure, and on education, health, pensions and even law and order traditionally a firmly Tory issue far more people think the Government has failed than think it has succeeded. Conservative supporters tend to consider the Government's economic record to be a success (55 per cent) rather than a failure (8 per cent). But the number of Conservatives counting the other domestic policy records as a success is remarkably low 29 per cent on pensions, 23 per cent on the health service, 18 per cent on combating crime and 17 per cent on education.

a Lin em uy niraii crowd waiting outside the Pan nier Market in Barnstaple for threequarters of an hour, while the Battlebus was becalmed traffic outside town, was whip- pea up to a state ot excitement by a circling pair of Conser vative loudspeaker vehicles urging them to go home an invitation vociferously refused by the baying mob of moderates. On a platform in Plymouth that night shared with Dr David Owen, Mr Steel pursued his relentlessly moderate line. He conceded that Mrs Thatcher was competent (imagine Mr Healey saying that). Not to be outdone, Dr Owen said the post-war Prime Minister most interested in disarmament had been Mr Harold Macmiilan and he praised Mr Edward Heath's Sunningdale initiative on Ireland. Neither mentioned that other well-known leader, Mr Roy Jenkins.

LAURENCE MARKS visits soma Tory marginals, and finds the Labour vote disintegrating Liberal voters from East Twickenham, makes the Liberals' Mr Alan Watson (former television journalist, now an ad man) the favourite He needs only another 6 per cent of the 1979 vote to win with an 1 1 per cent Labour vote to squeeze. Mr Hanley, a local chartered accountant (and son of actress Dinah Sheridan), said: 'On paper, the Liberals should romp it because of the council, but I believe people will recognise that other issues are at stake in a general election. In Chelmsford, where Mr Norman lohn-Mevas is trying to hang on against a strong Liberal challenge, the special factor is economic sue cess. This expanding industrial town in fcssex is utterly dif ferent from the old middle-class dormitory seats of the Home Counties that are natural Liberal territory. Local firms have been attract' ing an average of 900 families a year since 1970.

Typically, they are young parents who grew up in Labour-voting households, moved from London to improve their lives, and voted T. ory for the hrst tune in 1979 The Liberals' Mr Stuart Mole (Mr David Steel's senior aide until the election), needs only another 6 per cent of the 1979 vote to win with an 11 per cent Labour vote to squeeze In Cheltenham, the special factor is the popularity of the sitting Tory, Mr Charles Irving, a jolly, rather folksy local businessman, former mayor, chairman of the finance com mittee and MP who has the town sewn up. Mr Irving is the standard-bearer of the successful business community which, in the early 1970s, replaced the old ascen dancy of retired colonels and monied professional people in the local Conservative Associa tion. The Liberals' Mr Richard Holme, a London publisher who learned his politics work- ing ior Mr jerry crown in California, needs another 20 per cent ot the 1979 vote to win with a 25 per cent Labour vote to squeeze. He argues that the town requires someone more formidable than a 'good ol' boy to represent it.

He managed the Liberal by- election campaigns at Croydon and Bermondsey, and the Tories are slightly nervous of his electoral wizardry. He is encouraged by the fact that, in the supposedly Tory stronghold of Charlton Kings, labelled one ot the most middle-class places in Britain by Robert Waller's 4 Almanack of British the Liberals are clearly winning. But the good ol boy will be hard to shut. You can open a Nationwide Bonus Account with 500, and you can have monthly income paid to you if your balance is 3,000 or more. Nationwide will pay your monthly interest direct into your bank account, or into a Nationwide Share Account, as you wish.

to basic rate income tax payers Nationwide Bonus Accounts offer high interest currently a full above our variable Share Account rate-on the money you leave in the account. This extra interest is variable, but will always be above the Share Account rate. Anti-Conservatives. those who say they intend to vote Labour, Alliance or nationalist consider the Government's greatest failures to be on health policy (63 per. cent) arid education (60 per cent).

Perhaps surprisingly, the Government's overall economic record is rated a failure by only 50 per cent of anti-Tory voters-Looking ahead to a possible further four or five years of Tory rule, there is widespread optimism that inflation will be kept down but -twice as many people (59 per cent) believe the Conservatives will fail to reduce the level of unemployment as think they will succeed (30 per cent). During the campaign The Observer, in conjunction with Channel 4's 'A Week in has asked Harris to look at the images of each of the main parties in turn. Surprisingly, in view of their massive lead, the Conservatives emerge with the best image only on inflation. On employment, industrial relations and 'caring about the interests of people like the Conservatives do worse than both Labour and the LiberalSDP Alliance. On governing in.

the interests of the country as a whole' and keeping its promises, the Conservatives are expected to do better than Labour but- not as well as the. Alliance. Mrs Thatcher, however, remains well ahead of Mr Foot and Mr Jenkins as the person who would make the best Prime Minister. Her rating, 46 per cent, is down three points compared with last week, while the scores for Mr Foot (17 per cent) and Mr Jenkins (14 per cent) are not changed. Harris Research Centre interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,041 electors in SO constituencies throughout Bri- tain Thursday and Friday.

Harris Research Centrej' The World weather Madrid cl 31 88 Manila cl 36 97 Mexico cl 29 84 Miami 30 86 Mdo 10 50 Montreal 23 73 Moscow cl 23 73 Amstrdm 23 Athens cl 30 86 Bahrain cl 38100 Barbados 28 82 Beirut cl 30 86 Belgrade cl 30 86 Berlin cl 25 77 Bogota 20 68 Brussels cl 26 79 Aires 10 50 Cairo cl 31 88 Calgary 10 50 Chicago cl 19 66 Nassau 31 88 Delhi York Nicosia Oslo Paris Peking Perth Rio Rome Frisco cl 41 106 24 75 cl 32 90 13 55 cl 27 81 26 79 14 57 24 75 cl 33 91 cl 18 64 Copnhgn 15 59 Dublin cl 18 64 Frankfrt cl 23 73 Geneva cl 26 79 Havana 32 90 Helsinki 14 57 Hnk K.ng 28 82 H'lulu cl 30 86 Jakarta 30 86 Jerusalm cl 26 79 Joburg cl 20 68 Kiev 26 79 Lmpr cl 33 91 Lima cl 27 81 Lisbon cl 28 82 London cl 23 73 LsAngls 23 73 San Juan 32 90 Santiago 19 66 a i-aulo 20 68 Seoul cl 29 84 S'pore 32 90 Stockhlm 17 62 Sydney 19 66 Tel Aviv cl 26 79 Tokyo 22 72 Toronto 20 68 Vancuvr 19 66 Vienna cl 28 82 Key cl clear cloudy rain f-fair. Passbook shows money in, money out With a Nationwide Bonus Account you don't have to commit yourself to any particular length of time. You can add to your account any time you like and you can also withdraw. Just give 28 days' notice and there's no loss of interest on the sum withdrawn. But if you need money in a hurry, you can withdraw immediately, with 28 days' interest lost on just the sum withdrawn.

To qualify for the extra interest you must keep at least 500 in the account. You get a passbook, so you always know where you stand. Makingyourmoneygrow If you don't require monthly income, interest will be added to your account every six months and you can leave it to accumulate so that it will itself earn interest at the full Bonus rate. That adds up to 7.12 which is worth 10.18 to basic rate income tax payers. AT A BLOCK of council flats in Richmond last Tuesday, a lifelong Labour supporter told the Tory candidate, Mr Jeremy Han-ley, that she couldn't bring herself to vote Conservative, and was wavering between his Liberal and Labour opponents.

'You must meet my friend Keith Vaz, the Labour Mr Hartley replied swiftly. He's a splendid fellow. I'll put him in touch with In Richmond, as in other finely balanced ConLib marginals, the Labour vote is not just crumbling. It is falling on to the pavement in lumps where it is being picked up by the Liberals. The Tories are right to be alarmed.

It's not a tactical said Mr John Spiller, the Liberals' marginal seats organiser. It's a complete rejection of the Labour campaign, especially among the older party traditionalists. They don't see us as the most attractive party, but as their only Mr Spiller's arithmetic is optimistic but not improbable. The Liberals should be able to cut the Labour vote to an irreducible per cent in many of these constituencies, where their organisation is well established if not of by-election quality. In addition, they can reasonably expect to win over about per cent of those 1979 Conservative voters (even in prosperous towns) who would like to see a strong Alliance presence in the new Parliament.

This combination would be enough on its own to gain them a handful of the 78 Tory seats where the Liberals were in second place last time, and will make many others vulnerable to a last-minute Alliance bandwagon. A sampling of the campaigns in three of these marginals last week produced two general impressions. One is that the SDP connection is being quietly played down. The posters are orange. The arguments are Liberal.

The Alliance is dutifully, if perfunctorily, mentioned. But the heavy by-election stress on political partnership is absents Some party organisers regard the connection as a net liability in Conservative seats. A second impression is that the neat tabulations and general inferences of the electoral analysts conceal local factors that could decide the result against the national trend in many places. In Richmond, the special factor is the deep unpopularity of the borough council (Tory-controlled by virtue of the mayor's casting vote), which cut services and recently hiked the rates by 30 per cent. This, helped by boundary changes which add 6,000 predominantly DoyouthlnktheConserva- percentages fives, If elected to power, all I supporters would or would not electors com I UB USDpj WOULD 30 58 6 13 unemployment WOULD NOT 59 27 90 80 DON'T KNOW 11 15 4 7 keep inflation would 68 89 42 68 down? WOULD NOT 25 7 49 28 DON'T KNOW 6 4 9 4 bring about better would 38 69 11 19 industrial relations WOULD NOT 50 17 83 75 DON'T KNOW 12 14 6 6 care about the WOULD 45 74 13 25 interests of people WOULD NOT 47 12 82 66 like you? DON'T KNOW 8 8 5 8 in the WOULD 55 92 16 35 interests of the would NOT 38 4 78 57 country as a whole? don't KNOW 7 4 5 8 keep its WOULD 48 80 15 30 promises would not 42 11 75 59 DON'T KNOW 12 9 10 12 Nationwide BullcSng society ft (teci There are over 1250 Nationwide branches and agency branches and almost all are open on Saturday mornings.

Come in and see usf or write to Nationwide, FREEPOST, London, WC1V 6XA. Anticyclone remaining in the with a weak or NE airstream covering Britain. Mostly dry, warm and sunny with fog on NE and coasts. London, Midlands, Central England Dry, sunny. Wind variable light.

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