Hartford Courant from Hartford, Connecticut • 74

E4 SUNDAY. JUNE 1,2003 THE HARTFORD COURANT AMATEUR BASEBALL DRAFT EXTRA BASES Observations Of The Scouts Expos Get A Welcome Break Combined Wire Services Positions In Demand Making a draft choice is difficult in any sport Developing the draft choice into a serviceable professional player is a bigger challenge. Nurturing the player to stardom is almost impossible especially if said player occupies a demanding position. Which positions are the most difficult to groom in each team sport? Here's our take: NFL: Quarterback The game may be won the on the lines, but all eyes are on the quarterback. That's why teams with high draft picks find it tough to pass on a decorated college QB.

But using and work at it and get better. That the kind of respect you have to have for the game. You can't like baseball, you have to love it If such a grind, but it should be a labor of love Kids have to look at it as fun. "Another thing that's important is what kind of family and support system do they have. The kind of family you come from dictates what kind of kid you're going to be.

I like kids that have a little bit of an edge to them when they get out on the field. Nomar Garciaparra is a perfect example. He's a great person, but he has that swagger and he knows what he's got to do to get it done. "Lou Merloni is another. He's not a fluke.

He led the Cape Cod League in hitting. He's not 190 pounds, but he's a strong kid with a lot of ability. He's a guy everybody likes and he's gotten every bit of ability out of himself He's a perfect example of how important makeup is." Morhardt "Even if you have great talent, like a Darryl Strawberry or a Sheffield, youll be a mediocre player if your heart's not into it That's why communication is so important You want to know why they do what they do. You can project a guy to do something, but if they don't dive in and do the work, your projection's "It's a different mind-set for baseball than basketball and football Sometimes guys might not be able to get their bodies to play every day. That's tough to know sometimes.

You can be a pretty good player and do well three days a week. The guys we're looking for can do it five, six times a week. That's not always easy to find out" of other things. He's a baseball player. He's got instincts.

The old adage is you can teach someone to hit Well, you can and you can't Somebody has to show you something, but hitters are born. If they have bat speed and coordination and they don't have any fear at the plate, those guys have a chance to hit at the major league leveL "You're playing 144 games in 150 days, you should be a professional-caliber athlete. Not everybody can look like a fitness model, but it takes physical ability to play at the highest leveL If someone is strong and has endurance and stamina, hell be able to work over the course of a season, where someone else can't Ideally, if two kids have the same ability, you go with the kid with the better body." Morhardt: "People carry around radar guns for a reason. Usually, strength correlates with durability, but not always. If how you perform.

Someone can hit a ball the same distance as Rafael Palmeiro, but it doesn't get you excited. Palmeiro does it like a great pianist There's great timing and grace he makes it look so easy. "When JeflfBagwell was at Hartford, he had a great eye. He was phenomenal at waiting for a good pitch. Obviously, to be a good major league hitter, that works to your benefit But the problem is, some athletes are better in motion and need to be moving to be productive.

Dave Magadan and Gary Sheffield are two totally different players. If there's a guy on second and two outs, Magadan's a killer. But if you're down three with first and second and two outs, I want Sheffield." Mental Makeup Fagnant: "I like kids that want to play Ray Fagnant, Northeast scout for the Red Sox, and Greg Morhardt, New England scouting supervisor for the Mets, discuss evaluating talent in advance of the amateur draft, which starts Tuesday: Statistics Fagnant Tm not a huge stat guy, meaning Til never eliminate a guy because his stats aren't great They'll tell you a lot, but they won't tell you everything. I still like to see a guy and decide for myself why he has, or hasn't, got good stats. "You see certain guys tearing it up at certain levels, but you look at the competition and they have no chance.

Some guys will be hitting .500 in high school, but they're facing guys throwing 75 mph with no breaking balls. You have to look where a guy will be five years from now." Morhardt: "You have to really know your players to know their statistics. If we know our players well, then we can apply their statistics. We know when their stats go bad in certain areas, you probably don't have to see them you know they're swinging at too many bad balls. If the stats are good, it's usually because he's patient and relaxed.

That's when you want to get the guy. "You can't always go on statistics. Maybe a guy went l-for-9 against a pitcher, but he was on him, hitting line drives, and didn't have any luck. That's when you have to be careful I think that's why you have older scouts, for their Physical Skills Fagnant: "I just like kids that can play. Hitters than can hit and pitchers than can get hitters out If the kid can really hit, like a Lance Berkman, you can overlook a lot Biggest Busts Danny Goodwin, first round, 1975 (Angels): Goodwin was actually a double bust, having been drafted No.

1 overall by the White Sox in 1971, only to opt for college. The Angels made him the only two-time No. 1 overall pick, and he never played more than 59 games in any of his eight seasons (.236 career hitter). Among those drafted after Goodwin in 1971 and '75: Mike Schmidt, George Brett Jim Rice, Ron Guidry, Andre Dawson, Lou Whitaker. 2.

Brien Taylor, LHP, first round, 1991 (Yankees): Taylor was drafted No. 1 overall, receiving a much-ballyhooed $L55 million signing bonus. But he never made it out of Double A after he was injured in a fistfight Drafted after Taylor. Manny Ramirez, Shawn Green, Brad Radke. 3.

Steve Chilcott, first round, 1966 (Mets): The only other first overall pick never to reach the majors. But the Mets more than made up for it that year, winning the lottery for a righthander drafted by the Braves who had his contract voided. Some guy named Seaver. Came Out Of Nowhere Mike Piazza, 62nd round, 1988 (Dodgers): 10-time All-Star and the 1993 rookie of the year. The National League's all-time leader in homers as a catcher (342).

2. Keith Hernandez, IB, 42nd round, 1971 (Cardinals): 1979 NL MVP and an 11-time Gold Glove winner. Led the 1982 Cardinals and 1986 Mets to World Series titles. JEFF GOLDBERG fr -r- i -Ji rT7 1 "'t I Normally, Frank Robinson hates doubleheaders. But the Montreal manager didn't mind that the Expos will be playing two today in Philadelphia after being rained out Saturday.

nis team, svu. ana leaning race for the National League will card spot (four games out of first in the NL East), is in the early stages of a 25-day, 22-game, trip away from Montreal The Expos begin their second Puerto Rican home stand Tuesday night, facing the Anaheim Angels. The Expos have embarked on rn A.Am t. real to Florida to Philadelphia to Puerto Rico to Seattle to Oakland to Pittsburgh to a June 20 return to Montreal, an odys-sey. "We don't worry about three days from now or a week from now and where we're going to be two weeks from now," says catcher Michael Barrett "The most important thing is playing the game today.

And if we mam-tain that perspective, then the roadtrip will go by fast" And how do you pack for a 25-day business trip? "I just threw everything I had in my luggage and my bag," Barrett says. "Seriously. Everything." For the second year in a row, the Expos present commissioner Bud Selig who is in charge of the ownerless team a problem. Should he allow generai manager Omar Minaya to add ent and payroll and stay in contention? Or should he let them reduce payroll, perhaps unload free agent Vladimir Guerrero? Robinson's laissez-faire attitude has had a calming effect on the Expos, who have stood up to uncommon pressure despite having the youngest roster in the NL. Injuries to starters Orlando Hernandez and Tony Armas Jr.

haven't kept the young pitching staff from compiling the third-best ERA in the majors and record lug the most shutouts in the NL. Add though the team lacks power the Expos rank 11th in the leagi in homers it has largely up for that with timely hitting In the meantime, Guerrero will miss today's doubleheader with a lower back strain Robinson said that he expected Guerrero to be back in the lineup Tuesday. Day on DL The Expos placed righthander Zach Day on the day disabled list retroactive to May 29 with an inflamed right shoulder. Day is 4-3 with a 3.44 ERA in 11 starts. He pitched a three-hitter at Milwaukee on May 1 for his first career shutout Righthander pitcher Sun-Woo Kim has been recalled from Triple A Edmonton to fill Day's siki! Kim, who was 5-3 with a 4.73 ERA in 10 starts for Edmonton, will join the team in Puerto Rico' when Montreal opens a tlmx-game series against Anaheim on Tuesday.

Edmonds back: Cardinals center fielder Jim Edmonds proved to be a quick healer, returning to the lineup after missing only tw starts with bruised ribs sustained while making a diving catch Wednesday. Edmonds got clearance to play after taking batting practice and throwing before a game against Pittsburgh, going 0-for-2 with two walks in the Pirates 4-3 victory in St Louis. The Cardinals' game notes sa i Edmonds would likely miss the entire three-game weekend series with the Pirates, but Edmonds said before the game he felt much better. Rays' Kennedy ailing: Tampa Bay starter Joe Kennedy left Saturday's game against Anahe im after one inning because of st illness in his left shoulder. The Devil Rays said a preliminary examination by a team doctor del or-mined the mjury was not serious.

Kennedy, whose start was pushed back two days for extra bullpen work, allowed a triple to Chone Figgins and a sacrifice fly to Tim Salmon in the first. He was replaced at the start of the second by Nick Bierbrodt Anaheim closer Troy PercivaL out witli a hip injury, reported no problems after throwing 55 pitches during a 12-minute bullpen session. It was the first time Percival has thro wm off the mound since going on the 15-day DL May 23.. REUTERSASSOCIATED PRESS MIKE PIAZZA AND JOHN SMOLTZ were obscure, late-round selections in the draft 3. John Smoltz, RHP, 22nd round, 1985 (Tigers): Traded to Braves in 1987 for Doyle Alexander.

Five-time All-Star. 1996 Cy Young Award winner. Had 55 saves last season. SOURCE: BASEBALL AMERICA a high draft pick on a quarterback may be the most risky path for NFL teams. Think of 1993, when the Patriots held the first pick and were choosing between Drew Bledsoe and BLEDSOE Rick Mirer.

They chose Bledsoe and he's had a brilliant career. Mirer never became a starter. And consider all of the starters drafted late or not drafted (Johnny Unitas, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady) and all of the first-round busts (Mirer, David Klingler, Chuck Long, Andre Ware, Dan McGwire, Heath Shuler, Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf). MLB: Pitcher There is a long list of high school pitching.studs who burned out before throwing a major league pitch a list that begins with Yankees bust Brien Taylor, injured in the minor leagues. And Taylor hurt his shoulder in a fight away from the ballpark.

Keeping pitchers healthy is difficult enough. The act of throwing a baseball is unnatural and puts a strain on the elbow and TAYLOR shoulder. When the pitcher is a teen with a body still growing, the risk of injury is great That's what makes developing a pitcher so arduous. And we're only talking about the physical challenge; so many talented pitchers never develop the pitching intelligence to advance. With such a shortage of pitching, teams also rush their best prospects through the minors.

It makes for a fertile history of failed prospects. A five-man rotation: David Clyde, Paul Wilson, Jeff Juden, Ben McDonald and Todd Van Poppel. All first-round picks, and not a star among them. NHL: Goaltender College and junior hockey are full of talented goaltenders. Scouting reports focus on the quick hands and reflexes of amateur goalies.

So why are so many NHL teams searching for a stable goalie each year? Why do so 75 many solid amateurs languish in the minors for years? No position in sports requires the mental toughness goaltenders must possess. All the greats, from Patrick ROY RoytoDominik Hasek, are steely personalities. Fragile egos don't succeed in the NHL; remember one-time Bruins' phenom Mike Moffat? And even goalies with the physical tools and swaggering personality need repetition in the minors. Look at how the Islanders are handling prospect Rick DiPietro, the No. 1 pick in the 2000 draft Rather than rush the former Boston University goalie, they are nurturing him at AHL Bridgeport Goaltending is so emotionally taxing that teams don't want to traumatize a prospect by throwing them into the NHL pool too soon.

NBA: Center In the post-Michael NBA, teams are focused on finding a certain type of player. A mid-sized player who can shoot from beyond the three-point line, soar past a defender and pass like a point guard. Even big guys such as Dirk Nowitzki are expected to be like Mike. And the trend has trickled down to college and high school. The days of the classic low-post center are over, or appear to be over.

Teams are still looking for the next Shaq, but there doesn't seem to be a big man on the horizon. The Celtics have taken two cracks at Mark Blount (7 feet) and he's closer to Darren Tillis than Bill Russell. That's the same team that gave Travis Knight all that money. Teams such as the Celtics see size RUSSELL and figure they can develop a center. But it doesn't happen because so few big men are tutored at a young age and most are still learning in the NBA.

Point guard may be the most demanding position in the league, but it is not impossible to fill. Center is a demanding position with little depth of talent at any level. PAUL DOYLE Tough To Get True Read On Players '90s Drafts A look at amateur draft first rounds in 1990-99: 1990 Top pick: Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta Top 10 that made it 7 Best pick: Mike Mussina, RHP, 20, Baltimore Worst pick: Timothy Costo, SS, 8, Cleveland 1991 Top pick: Brien Taylor, LHP, Yankees Top 10 that made it 8 Best pick: Shawn Green, OF, 16, Toronto Worst picks: Taylor; John Burke, RHP, 6, Houston 1992 Top pick: Phil Nevin, 3B, Houston Top 10 that made it 8 Best pick: Derek Jeter, SS, 6, Yankees Worst pick: Pete Janicki, RHP, 8, Anaheim 1993 Top pick: Alex Rodriguez, SS, Seattle Top 10 that made it 8 Best pick: Billy Wagner, LHP, 12, Houston Worst pick: Kirk Presley, RHP, 8, Mets 1994 Top pick: Paul Wilson, RHP, Mets Top 10 that made it 7 Best pick: Nomar Garciaparra, SS, 12, Boston Worst pick: Josh Booty, SS, 5, Florida 1995 Top pick: Darin Erstad, OF, Anaheim Top 10 that made it: 10 Best pick: Roy Halladay, RHP, 17, Toronto Worst pick: Ariel Prieto, RHP, 5, Oakland 1996 Top pick: Kris Benson, RHP, Pittsburgh Top 10 that made it: 9 Best pick: Eric Milton, RHP, 20, Yankees Worst pick: Matt Halloran, SS, 15, San Diego 1997 Top pick: Matt Anderson, RHP, Detroit Top 10 that made it 8 Best pick: Lance Berkman, IB, 16, Houston Worst pick: J.D. Drew, OF, 2, Phillies 1998 Top pick: Pat Burrell, IB, Phillies Top 10 that made it 8 Best pick: C.C. Sabathia, LHP, 20, Cleveland Worst pick: Matthew Thornton, LHP, 22, Seattle 1999 Top pick: Josh Hamilton, OF, Tampa Bay Top 10 that made it 6 Best pick: Barry Zito, LHP, 9, Oakland Worst pick: Corey Myers, SS, 4, Arizona SOURCE: BASEBALL AMERICA CONTINUED FROM PAGE El closer to what they're going to be, because there's no minor leagues," Fagnant said.

"They plug those guys right in. There's such a difference between the best amateur baseball player in the nation and a major leaguer. Baseball is a development-type game. There's so much room for improvement over the course of x-amount of years." Fagnant, from East Granby and Winsted's Greg Morhardt, the Mets' New England scouting supervisor, were in Pawtucket, R.I., Friday watching a college All-Star game trying to glean final tidbits of information before the draft. "There's always kids in the area, and you'll hear people say, 'He's really Morhardt said.

"And a lot of times, they're right But it's discerning all those other variables besides talent What makes someone take a guy in the first round, and he winds up being a career Triple A player, where another guy becomes a star? I think you have to pool the experience of your scouts." But even comprehensive scouting can miss the target Despite Davis' obvious talent Fagnant said he saw Davis work out as a pitcher in 1996 and hit 95 mph on the radar gun there were concerns about Davis' work ethic. The Pirates ignored those fears. "We thought he was the best two-way player on the board, a combination of power, speed and hitting ability," Pirates scouting director Leland Maddox said when Davis was drafted in 1997. "The one tool that a lot of people don't recognize is the makeup tool We feel you have to be tough to play this game, and J. J.

Davis brings that credential to the ballpark everyday." There was talk in the organization that Davis would be the Pirates' clean-up hitter by 2000. "I believe he has the work ethic to be in the big leagues and be a legitimate hitter in four years," Maddox said. "Maybe faster than that" But it quickly became apparent Davis lacked the maturity to be an immediate impact player. He had reached no higher than Double A Altoona by 2001, hitting only .250 with 26 RBI. By then, he was complaining about the wathe organization was handling his ca- PIRATES PROSPECT J.J.

DAVIS, left, has been slow to delevop while Lance Berkman has been a big hit with the Astros. reer. The same year, Berkman was hitting .331 with 34 homers and 126 RBI for Houston. "My attitude before was lousy," Davis told MLB.com in March. "I didn't care about the game and I didn't respect the game." Davis' career is finally on the upswing after a 20-homer season in 2002.

His attitude adjusted, the Pirates are expecting him to contribute at the major league level in 2004. If Davis becomes an impact player, even years later than expected, it will justify the high pick in 1997. "When Gary Sheffield was with Milwaukee, they did a great job picking that guy in the first round in 1986, because look at his talent," Morhardt said. "They picked the right player. And now look at what a great player he is with Atlanta.

There may have been some immaturity at that time in his life, so the Brewers didn't get all they expected out of him. But it doesn't mean they made a mistake. It doesn't necessarily mean you did right or wrong, depending on how someone does in the big leagues." Spearheaded by the success of the Oakland Athletics under general manager Billy Beane, talent evaluators are relying more on statistics in the hunt for blue-chip talent The genius lies in combining statistical data with what the eyes and mind tell a scout "What you're trying to search for is the truth about the player," Morhardt said. "That's what we're tying to do, whether it's makeup or talent You do research on their makeup and his ability and you look at his skills. You try and pool that information and come up with the truth of that player.

"You look at players that get sidetracked because of off-the-field issues, the production on the field isn't going to be as good, because the talent that you see Isn't the talent that's being given. It's a tough thing to read.".