The Ithaca Journal from Ithaca, New York • 10

10 ITHACA JOURNAL Tuesday, June 7, 1983 By how much will Thatcher win? PERSPECTIVE Opiiioi The Ithaca JOURNAL counseled her to schedule general elections as soon as possible, to take advantage of her popularity. Here, as elsewhere in the world, the principal issue is the economy. Thatcher reckons tha. she is better off now as a consequence of her economic policies than she will be if she waits until later in the year to confront the electorate. The inflation rate, down to 4 percent, is lower than it has been in 15 years.

Unemployment is still a major problem, but it may be declining this summer as seasonal jobs come along. The chances are that it will worsen by October. Thatcher, like President Reagan, went into office with the claim that her "monetarist" approach was the answer to Britain's difficulties. But her record has been as spotty as was that of her Labour Party predecessors. For one ting, she has not stuck to her right-wing doctrine of keeping government out of private enterprise.

On the contrary, she has been propping up ailing British companies, and public expenditures have risen. By TIM ROBINSON LONDON There is no doubt in my mind that Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher will score a resounding success in the elections due to be held here Thursday. The only question is whether her Conservative Party is going to win by a landslide or simply by an overwhelming margin. The size of her majority will hinge on two factors: Her own performance, and the fortunes of the two opposition movements challenging her. She is immensely popular.

But she often tarnishes her own reputation by scolding her cabinet ministers in public for their resistance to her right-wing line. As a result, she sometimes projects the image of being overly ambitious. Some opinion specialists submit, therefore, that voters may deny her too much power. So they predict that the Conservatives will rack up impressive tallies in their traditional strongholds, yet not dent Labour party constituencies. Labour's progress, however, will be determined by support for the Alliance of Liberals and Social Democrats, which is facing its first nationwide test as a coalition.

If the Liberals and Social Democrats cut into Labour's ranks, the Conservatives will be the beneficiaries. Until now, though, the Social Democrats seem to be in trouble. Indeed, many of their candidates are fighting for their political lives. Nor is Labour in very good shape. The party is split by factionalism, especially on defense issues.

And its leader, Michael Foot, does not come across to much of the British public as a potential prime minister. Thatcher is the picture of self-confidence. She returned from the economic summit meeting in Williamsburg the other day, after having created the impression that she is a figure of global dimensions, and the publicity has helped. In fact, she decided to call the elections early in May, following local elections in which the Conservatives did well. Her advisers Industrial production has meanwhile fallen, which is one of the causes of unemployment.

The crime rate has gone up, possibly because of the increase in the jobless ranks. Until last May, the opinion surveys showed Thatcher's approval ratings to be dismal. Indeed, the polls at one stage figured her public endorsement level at only 25 percent, the lowest for any prime minister since opinion beean to be measured in Britain. Her climb back to popularity dates from the end of the Falklands war a year ago. Her own standing is currently up to about 55 percent, roughly 10 percent higher than that of the Conservatives, whose rating as a party has also gone up.

The war for the remote Falklands was expensive. Yet it restored British national pride, and for that reason it could not be easily criticized by Thatcher's enemies. Luck has been on her side. Her attraction for voters is hard to understand. She is not a likable person, but somewhat resembles the rather severe headmistress of an old-fashioned school, who awes the boys and girls.

There is nothing feminine about her. "The best man we have," is the way one of his colleagues has portrayed her. The Soviet press has labeled her the "iron lady," and many British politicians would agree. It may be that Thatcher is dividing Britain politically as it is divided economically winning the support of the relatively comfortable middle classes while incurring the hostility of the poor and jobless. But if that is the case, the statistics favor her.

For if the unemployment rate is up to 13 percent, it means that 87 percent of the British labor force is working, and it is that proportion of the country whose votes she wants. The chances are virtually certain, then, that we will continue to watch her, aggressive and inflexible, on our evening television screens for another five years. Robinson is an author and journalist who writes on current events in Britain. rjKMWimraMc EDITORIAL The winemaker Charles Fournier died last Friday at his Hammondsport home at the age of 80. Though his death did not receive great publicity, his legacy will be remembered far from the shores of Keuka Lake.

The chief winemaker for a company in Reims, France, he came to this country in 1934 to work for Gold Seal Vineyards. Here he soon set in motion a revolution in New York winemaking that still continues first, by selecting native varieties and improved hybrids, and then by hiring Konstantin Frank, a champion of the European "vinifera" varieties. Wine experts may differ over the relative importance of Mons. Fournier and Dr. Frank.

But it was Fournier who listened to Frank when other producers turned a deaf ear, and it was Fournier who gave Frank the chance to demonstrate that the viniferas can be trained to endure New York's difficult climate. Known for his courtesy and generosity "a class gentleman," one acquaintance called him Fournier always gave Frank the credit for accomplishing with the viniferas what Fournier himself had tried to do for nearly 30 years. The New York Champagnes developed by Fournier and the Rieslings and Chardonnays made later in consort with Dr. Frank all proved that Upstate New York can produce wines that compare well with the best from California, France and Germany. Fournier was in failing health in recent years, but his friends say that he battled for life in order to mark some key events Last year he was named Man of the Year at national technical seminars of the wine industry, and he received the 1982 Merit Award from the American Society of Enologists.

He was the first Easterner to win either award. The troubles of New York's wine industry are not over. In announcing the formation of the New York Wine Council last week, the growers and producers admitted they've lost ground to imports in the U.S. market. Fashion has turned away from the sweeter, grapier wines that are most easily produced here.

The climate is not cordial to the grapes used for premium wines which means that the quantities produced are small and prices are relatively high. What New York needs, authorities say, is the development of varieties that will produce plentifully in this climate and have the taste to compete with European and Californian wines. That work, which Fournier pioneered, must continue. But it is hard to imagine that the fine wines of New York could have existed at all without him. IT'S MONDALS NECK AND NECK UNfiTttS BACK To Polls show John Glenn moving up 'Gee whiz.

Dad, it's only a book' By DON CAMPBELL WASHINGTON In the matter of political polls and the 1984 presidential campaign, a contradiction presents itself: At this point, the polls mean nothing but they're important. The debate comes up early in every presidential campaign, and it's prompted now by the recent sharp gains in several surveys by Sen. John Glenn (D-Ohio). Almost all national polls of Democrats since March have shown Glenn gaining and front-runner Walter Mondale losing ground. One, conducted by the Los Angeles Times, put Glenn two points ahead of the presidential trial heats posed by Gallup; by December of that year Carter had a 60-36 lead over Reagan, the odds-on favorite to win the GOP presidential nomination.

In mid-October 1975, President Ford led prospective rival Reagan by 48-25 percent in a Gallup survey of Republicans; two months later, shortly after announcing his candidacy for the GOP nomination, Reagan had taken a 40-32 percent lead over Ford. (And eight months later, Ford won the nomination.) The easiest and best explanation of all this is a cliche that political scientists are fond of using: Polls are nothing more than a snapshot in time. They measure public preferences on a given day or group of days, impressions that may be shaped by something as shallow and fleeting as an item on the previous evening's television news show. Ford, for example, scored one of the sharpest rises in approval rating in the history of the Gallup poll in May of 1975, following the Mayaguez incident. Although 41 American deaths were attributed to the effort to rescue the merchant ship from Cambodian forces, Ford's approval It is true that Mondale has assembled one of the most impressive campaign organizations in modern presidential politics.

But the political pros still have some questions about him. One is whether he has enough pizazz to sustain interest in his campaign. Another is whether he is too indebted to special-interest groups to withstand the barrage of criticism he would face in a general election campaign. The latter point translates into perhaps Glenn's strongest asset: his is a broad-based appeal to "average" Americans, including Southern and Border State whites of both parties. No higher authority than Richard Wirthlin, the White House pollster, testifies to that.

He told reporters recently that his surveys suggest that Glenn would be the strongest challenger to Reagan among the current crop of Democrats. If you're John Glenn, you can't buy that kind of favorable publicity. Campbell writes for Gannett News Service. rating jumped 11 points in one month. That alone suggests that current ratings on President Reagan are irrelevant when trying to handicap the 1984 election.

A crisis next week or next June could send his fortunes plummeting or soaring. Look at what Iran did for Jimmy Carter: It first bolstered him politi-. cally, then helped defeat him. If the polls are meaningless, why are they also important? Because politicians and political contributors react to them. Glenn, for example, is ballyhooing his recent surge in the polls to previous donors and potential new givers.

He'd be a fool not to. It gives him a chance to argue that his campaign is more than apple pie-hero imagery, that it also reflects a wide following in the Democratic Party. Indeed, if he goes up in the polls and stays there, it doesn't matter very much WHAT it's based on. The flip side is what the polls make the politicians think about Mondale, who is operating on the assumption of all strong front-runners that his nomination is inevitable. former vice president.

Those who want to say "so what?" can find plenty of support by going back to similar periods before the 1980 and 1976 presidential campaigns. In April 1979, Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) had a 58-31 lead over President Jimmy Carter in a Gallup survey of Democratic voters. By December of that year, Carter had a 48-40 lead over Kennedy.

In June 1979, Carter trailed both Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford in LETTERS TO THE JOURNAL I was walking by my son's room the other day and heard him typing. "What are you up to?" I asked him. "I'm writing my memoirs on what it was like to be your son." This pleased me, and I said, "I hope I come out all right in the book." "I'm sure you will," he said. "Hey, Dad, how many times should I say you took me out in the barn and whipped me with your belt?" "I never took you out in the barn and beat you with a belt! We don't even have a barn." "My editor said in order for the book to sell I'm going to have to write a lot of stuff about how you beat me up and locked me in my closet when I did something wrong." "I didn't lock you up when you did anything wrong." "I know that, but he wants a story like the ones Gary Crosby and Christina Crawford wrote about their parents. He says the reading public wants to know about the private life you lead, as opposed to the public image you have.

All the kids are writing one now and they're best sellers. Would you mind if I portrayed you as a rotten father?" "Do you have to?" "Of course I have to. I got a $10,000 advance, and they don't put up that kind of money unless you really blow the whistle on your parents. You should read chapter two. I tell how you made everyone laugh at a speaking engagement, and then you came home drunk and dumped us all out of our beds and made us scrub the floor." "I never did that and you know it." "Gosh, Dad, it's only a book.

My editor loves it almost as much as chapter three where I have you beating up Mom." "You've got me beating up your mother?" "I don't say you really hurt her. But I tell how we kids used to hide under the blankets so we couldn't hear her screaming." "I never laid a hand on your mother." "I can't say that. My editor said people are not going to plunk down ART BUCHWALD $15.95 for 'Rebecca of Sunnybrook "Okay, so I strapped you with a belt and I beat up your mother. What else did I do to you?" "I'm just getting into the sex stuff in chapter four. Do you think if I wrote you used to bring show girls home at three o'clock in the morning people would believe it?" "I'm sure they would.

But don't you think that's going a bit far, even for a best seller?" "My editor suggested the idea. You don't have a big reputation for messing around, and this would really come as a surprise to the reader. It can't hurt." "It can't hurt you, but it sure as hell can hurt me," I yelled at him. Don't you have anything good to say about me in the book?" "I had a chapter on how you bought me my first bicycle, but my editor made me take it out. He said people might get confused after the stuff I wrote about you dumping a bowl of mashed potatoes on my head at Christmas time because I gave you some lip." "Why didn't you write I threw you in a cold shower with all your clothes on because you only got a in math?" "Hey, that's good.

I'll say I got pneumonia and you never even bothered to visit me in the hospital." "You'd sell out your own father for "It's not just the money, Dad. My editor says if I let it all hang out Barbara Walters might even interview me on I wouldn't have to live in your shadow any more." "Well, if it means that much to you, go right ahead with the book. Is there any way I can help?" "Yeh. There is one thing. Could you buy me a word processor? If I could speed up my typing I could have it out by Christmas.

I'll pay you back as soon as my agent sells the book rights to the movies." Buchwald is a syndicated columnist. Union states a reason for opposing Cornell legislation Your article (May 26) on the removal from the State Assembly's agenda of legislation that would reduce the size of the Cornell University Board of Trustees did not fully explain why we sent a telegram to the State Assembly's Higher Education Committee opposing the charter change. The proposed legislation would reduce public representation on the Cornell Board of Trustees by eliminating the seats of the Lieutenant Governor, the Industrial Commissioner and the Commissioners of Agriculture and Markets, Education, and Commerce. We believe that as a state-supported land grant institution, Cornell must be directly accountable to representatives of the public interest. We understand that several state officials who are members of the Board of Trustees have also objected to the proposed changes.

Al Davidoff President, Ithaca UAW Locai 23oo A Spencer candidate Mary Durfee has been a member of our Spencer Book Club since its inception three years ago. We have had the opportunity to come to know her and her interest in education and government. Her experience in industry permits her to approach problems with business-like efficiency. She is also a logical thinker and able to express her ideas clearly on a variety of subjects. Mary has many ideas on how to promote quality education at low cost.

These ideas, and her commitment to the Spencer-Van Etten community, will make her an excllent, hard-working member of the Board of Education. Please support her in the upcoming election, June 8. Roberta Wells, for Spencer Book Club members Spencer Another Sobel fan I'm one of those who will miss Michael Sobel not only as a doctor but someone who really cares. Two years ago, I was in the hospital and I had been looking forward to a trip to Maine. Dr.

Sobel called a doctor in Maine who was near where I would be and explained my illness in case I had any problems. He also gave me a letter to take with me listing my disabilities in case I had to go to another doctor during my trip. Not too many doctors are so caring as Dr. Sobel. I wish him luck in anything he does for he deserves the best.

Dorothy Oman Newfield Letters to The Journal Letters to the editor are cordially invited. We ask that you sign them by hand and include your home andor office address. Neither unsigned letters nor pen-names will be used. Please include a telephone number where you can be reached during working hours. Why she opposed zoning changes for the Ramada At the Common Council meeting on Wednesday, June 1, I voted against the zoning change for part of our downtown.

The zoning change extended our downtown commercial district essentially to permit the owners of the Ramada Inn (the Block 99 Partnership) to erect a mini-skyscraper. This was not a negative vote for the Ramada Inn's expansion program. This was a vote in support of maintaining what I hope are our goals for keeping Ithaca, Ithaca. Tall, modern, monolithic structures do not add to the visual integrity that is valuable to our small city. Those of us who saw Gordon Webb's "Creative Reflections" at the 1983 Ithaca Festival were shown some aspects of this visual integrity.

A past festival celebration referred to us as "The Little Apple." Big Apple structures of glass and steel are not what keeps us special. I support the expansion of the Ramada Inn which is completely funded by private money. I support new jobs during construction; I support new jobs upon completion of the new addition. Jobs are created when six-story buildings are built as well as when buildings go as high as 100 feet. I've yet to be convinced that the only way to add 56 or 57 new rooms is by building straight up.

I become concerned when we get too excited about new development and don't take the time to step back, take a deep breath, and calmly think through all the possible alternatives. After all, there is more than one way' to peel an apple! Nancy B. Schuler Fourth Ward Alderman Ithaca SHOE Ithaca, New York 14150 123 West State Street The Ithaca Journal 169th Year Pam M. Johnson Member of the Publisher Audit Bureau ol Circulations Member of the Associated Press Circulation Director Controtlar Production Diractor Compoung fotnman PraiHaom foreman 6ari tollman ank Manlrl tichacd 1 Carlton Jowolt longo larrj Canilli Managing Editor CltT WO Uilonal 'ago editor Idtarttling trirtctor lalarl Miartiling Managat Clauiliad Mfartiiing Managor JotJund Jim aVowi Jano Marcham Salt Donakson III Walant Donna Cirr Published daily except Sunday by the Ithaca Journal-News, a Gannett newspaper. Pam M.

Johnson, President, Thomas C. Chappie, Secretary; Jimmy L. Thomas, Treasurer..