The Salina Journal from Salina, Kansas on January 1, 1986 · Page 4
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The Salina Journal from Salina, Kansas · Page 4

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Salina, Kansas
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Wednesday, January 1, 1986
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Page 4
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Opinion TheSalinaJourual Wednesday, January 1, 1986 Page* HP1 iteiilita T 1 1 He Journal Founded in 1871 HARRIS RAYL, Editor and Publisher KAY BERENSON, Executive Editor SCOTT SEIRER, News Editor LARRY MATHEWS, Assistant News Editor LORI BRACK, Weekend Ed/tor JIMHAAG, Night Editor MARY JO PROCHAZKA, Associate Editor Impossible dreams? Headlines we'd like to see in 1986: Air travel sets new safety record South Africa ends apartheid New industry nets 500 jobs for Salina Wheat price hits $6 a bushel State to see budget surplus Salina schools named best in nation National debt wiped out Cancer cure discovered Federal budget deficit eliminated Downtown renovation called success Effective gun control laws passed Salina convention business booms Steve Hawley's shuttle takes off Teachers enjoy higher salaries, prestige Kansans approve liquor by the drink Local unemployment rate falls to 2 percent Kansas lottery drive axed Enrollment soars at KTI, KW, Marymount, Bethany AIDS cure found 1986 passes with no reports of terrorism Idealism overtakes America's campuses Bob Dole: A passion for power WASHINGTON — Senate Majority Leader Robert J. Dole (R-Kan.) is a man who feasts on challenges; 1986 will bring him enough to satisfy even his appetite. Sitting in his office a few days ago, Dole ticked off the things that have to fall into place for this to be a happy new year for him and his party: • The Senate must pass the tax-revision bill which President Reagan put at the top of his second-term domestic agenda and pushed through the House in December with a last- minute lobbying blitz. • The Senate must demonstrate that it can use the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings budget process, which it invented out of desperation late in 1985, to produce meaningful deficit reductions. • The Senate must deal with another pinching economic problem by passing a trade bill that helps prevent predatory export practices by other nations and opens foreign markets to U.S. goods and services. It may also have to revisit farm legislation if, as seems likely, the 1985 agriculture bill fails to alleviate acute distress in rural America. • The majority leader must win his own reelection race in Kansas (which seems well in hand) and lend his assistance to other Republican senators, in order to hold the shaky 53-47 Republican majority in a year when the GOP must defend almost twice as many Senate seats as the Democrats. If Dole can do those four or five big things, then he may, just may, have an entering wedge for the 1988 GOP presidential race, which he longs to contest. Otherwise, forget it. Dole is not daunted. At 62, he has a passion for power that all his wisecracks and joking cannot conceal. Luckily for the Senate and the nation, it is linked to a subtle mind and an instinct for governing as acute as the Senate hasn't seen since the days of Lyndon B. Johnson. Most of his colleagues say Dole did very well in his first year as the successor to retired Majority Leader Howard H. Baker Jr. But this year will be tougher. Dole will have to find a way to mesh the election needs of his diverse Republican colleagues with the different priorities of the Democratic House. Toughest of all, he will have to craft the tax, trade and budget bills to meet the strict standards Reagan has set out, or persuade Reagan to back down, or take the risk of putting the Republican Senate in conflict with a venerated Republican president in an election year. Conflicts threaten everywhere. On taxes, for example, Dole said: "We have to have a bipartisan bill to get it through the Senate.... I think we can pass one, but it won't necessarily be what the president prescribes." Reagan squeezed a tax bill through the House David Broder WASHINGTON POST last month only by promising Republicans there he would veto any measure that did not meet the major conditions set by such people as Rep. Jack Kemp (R-N.Y.), possibly Dole's least favorite colleague. The dilemma is even sharper on deficit reduction. Dole embraced Gramm-Rudman but said, "I fault them for taking Social Security off the list" for savings. As for the president, Dole said, "If he insists that defense, Social Security and interest payments are all sacred and taxes can't be raised, I just don't think we'll be able to get the deficits on the downward glide path Gramm-Rudman sets." Again, someone will have to bend. At some point this spring or summer, Dole said, "it will be hard to avoid" merging consideration of tax reform and the budget. What I understand Dole to be saying is that the president will have to back off his flat opposition to any kind of tax increase and accept what Dole has long regarded as inevitable: the need for new revenues. "There will be no effort up here at revenue enhancement without the White House's approval," he said pointedly. Fresh fights are possible also on trade and farm legislation, where Reagan in 1985 imposed one veto and threatened another in order to enforce his budgetary and economic theories. Dole does not blanch at the prospect of a showdown with Reagan or the administration heavyweights. Last year, he publicly challenged Treasury Secretary James A. Baker III on the timing of tax reform; Secretary of Defense Caspar W. Weinberger on military spending; Attorney General Edwin Meese IE on voting-rights enforcement; and White House Chief of Staff Donald T. Regan on his handling of Congress. But in this election year, with control of the Senate in doubt and his campaigning colleagues counting on him to protect their interests, the risks of a fight with the White House go well beyond Dole's own future ambitions. "The president is the best asset we've got," Dole said, but then characteristically asserted his own power. "I don't think I've initiated one phone call to the White House all year," he said. "They call me." "They" will be calling often in 1986. And what he answers may well be the central and decisive story in this fascinating political- governipentalyear. Di»t. Ntws America Syndic*!*. 1985 U.S. ambassador ignores South African blacks BOSTON — The U.S. ambassador to South Africa, Herman W. Nickel, has taken issue with a recent statement of mine. I wrote that many black South Africans, offended by Reagan administration policies toward their country, now refuse even to attend embassy functions. Nickel says that his embassy hosts more black community leaders than any other diplomatic mission. If this were a small factual dispute, it would- not be worth exploring further. But it is more than that. America's future place in southern Africa is at stake. And so I return to the subject to say that I greatly understated the estrangement of the black community from Nickel's embassy and from the United States. President Reagan's assistant secretary of state for African affairs, Chester Crocker, made "constructive engagement" U.S. policy in South Africa. It has turned out to mean engagement almost exclusively with the white government and other whites. Crocker goes to South Africa several times a year. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee asked him in 1984 what black Africans he had met on those trips. In December 1984, he sent the committee a list of those he had met over the three previous years: 11 names. And some of those black South Africans he had encountered in the United States. Nickel, for his part, has told people that he is accredited to the white government and must focus his efforts there. And according to many reports, his tenure has seen a dramatic change in the character of embassy functions. One of the best informed observers of Anthony Lewis NEW YORK TIMES the South African scene put it as follows: "In the 1960s the United States and Britain at about the same tune broke the color bar at embassy functions. There were great multiracial gatherings: Every black person who was anybody turned up. That continued through the 1970s at the American Embassy. It had the most interesting gatherings in town. "It dried up very rapidly from the time Nickel arrived. One saw a handful of the sort of blacks who cooperate with the government. "And the embassy people on the whole don't go to the black townships either. There's no contact, no communication." The neglect of human contacts has accompanied policies that most politically minded blacks in South Africa detest. What Crocker and Nickel see as attempts to persuade Pretoria look to blacks like all carrot and no stick: gestures that in fact give the white government the legitimacy it craves. • Blacks were especially angry when the Reagan administration welcomed the constitutional "reform" that continued to deny Africans all political rights. Scorn for that "reform" started what by now are 15 months of protest. Blacks note that the American engagement with Pretoria has not moderated itsharsh repression of protests, or kept South Africa from repeatedly invading neighboring black-ruled countries. Resentment of American policy has brought the leading black opposition groups to shun the U.S. Embassy. The United Democratic Front is by far the most important anti-apartheid movement still allowed to operate in South Africa. Its leaders have no relationship with Nickel or his senior aides. And they do not go to embassy functions. Among younger black South Africans there is a depth of bitterness at U.S. policy that expresses itself in emotional anti- Americanism. They increasingly refuse to be associated with anything touched by the United States government. I personally know of humane South African institutions that have feared to accept U.S. aid lest blacks turn away. None of this is any secret, except perhaps to Nickel. Many Americans have encountered the bitterness. South Africans visiting here, black and white, speak of it. The phenomenon is obvious and extremely worrying. It menaces U.S. relations with a future non-racist South Africa — and menaces that South Africa's whole outlook. The one role the United States might have played in South Africa at this critical time was as a respected interlocutor between the parties. Its behavior toward South African blacks in the last five years has come close to discrediting it for that role. Multiple choices predict main events of 1986 WASHINGTON — Why do I put myself through this prediction purgatory every year? I never get more than four right and thereby lay myself open to guffaws of derision, a year later, from amateur pundits. However, the political office pool in this space remains' one of the few traditions in columny and it shows us all How Little We Know. 1. At the summit next June, where the Reagan-Gorbachev meeting will take place in front.of a wheezing air conditioner, the arms-control breakthrough will be (a) a limit on offensive missiles; (b) on-site inspection; (c) interim agreement on intermediate-force systems in Europe; (d) a pact to limit testing of "Star Wars." 2. First on the agreed budgetary hit list will be (a) Interstate Commerce Commission; (b) Small Business Administration; (c) Amtrak; (d) Agricultural Extension Service. 3. A KGB "mole" will be discovered hi (a) our intelligence community; (b) the Congress; (c) the media; (d) the FBI's caterer. 4. The world leader to leave the scene in 1986 will be (a) Ferdinand Marcos; (b) Francois Mitterrand; (c)Pieter Botha. 5. The Democratic presidential hopeful with the most money in his political action committee will be (a) Gary Hart; (b) Charles Robb; (c) Mario Cuomo; (d) BUI Bradley. 6. The person to whom Disraeli's term "dark horse" will be most frequently applied will be (a) Bill Armstrong; (b) Joseph Biden; (c) Newt Gingrich; (d) Lee lacocca; (e) Bob Packwood; (f)SamNunn. 7. Wall Street will be stunned by the news of William Safire NEW YORK TIMES (a) the drop from the 2000 Dow; (b) the junk- bond panic; (c) the soaring dollar; (d) the lowest interest rates in a decade; (e) the SEC's scandalously late discovery of the scandal of insider trading. 8. The price of a barrel of oil will (a) hold steady at $25 as Mexico and Britain secretly support OPEC; (b) move steadily downward toward $20 under pressure from an oil import fee; (c) plunge to $1S in an all-out price war; (d) confound everyone by rising, adding to world inflation. 9. On a new tax bill, the president will (a) agree to a tax increase; (b) give up his plan to eliminate deducibility of state and local taxes; (c) cave to the Democrats on the investment tax credit; (d) denounce the Democrats for sinking tax reform. 10. The hottest political book of the year wili be (a) David Stockman's kiss-and-tell "He Never Promised Me A Woodshed"; (b) John Ehrlichman's novel "The China Card"; (c) Roy Cohn's revelations to Sidney Zion; (d) Jack Kemp and Alan Weinstein's profile- courageous "Through the Perilous Night"; (e) Bob Woodward's book on the CIA; (f) Jeane Kirkpatrick's "I Hope You and Poindexter Will Be Very Happy, George." 11. In Israeli politics (a) Prime Minister Peres will turn over his job to his coalition partner, Yitzhak Shamir, as promised; (b) Peres will precipitate an election, defeat Shamir and remain prime minister; (c) the Likud's Shamir, denied his rightful rotation, will defeat Peres; (d) when Peres calls ah election, the Likud will choose Moshe Arens or Ariel Sharon to lead the right wing, and will win. 12. In the 1986 senatorial elections, with two out of three seats at contest now held by Republicans (a) Democrats will gain a majority in the Senate, effectively ending the Reagan Revolution; (b) Democrats will gam up to three seats, but not gain control; (c) Republicans will break even or even pick up seats, moving the center of political gravity over to the right for the rest of the century. 13. In House races, reflecting the state of the economy (a) Democrats gain, lame- ducking Reagan; (b) Republicans gain, putting them within striking distance of a House majority in the event of a presidential landslide in 1988; (c) a standoff, with the same political thrill as kissing your running mate's sister. 14. The economy will (a) achieve 5 percent real growth, lowering the deficit, booming the market; (b) disappoint with no growth, causing horrendous Gramm-Rudman budget-cutting until recession stops the slashing; (c) sorry, no choice of a (c); you are forced to be an optimist or pessimist. My picks: Ic, 2a, 3b, 4a, 5a, 6b, 7b, 8c, 9b, 10e, lid, 12b, 13a, 14a. I like long shots. You cannot guff aw if you don't play. Doonesbury

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