Star Tribune from Minneapolis, Minnesota • Page 18

ThursdayNovember 101988Star Tribune ELECTION '88 57 4i Hum short Duteras coanai If find phre Organizations, preparation How Minnesota voted Of opponents differ greatly Durenberger picked up support in almost all areas when compared with his 1982 reelection victory over DFLer Mark Dayton. A big boost came in northern Minnesota particularly the Eighth Congressional District, a DFL stronghold, where he managed to win 47 of the vote. Dukakis drew greater support than Walter Mondale did in winning Minnesota during the 1984 presidential election. All eight congressional districts gave Dukakis a bigger share of the vote. An exception to the pattern was farming areas, where Dukakis won 51, down from Mondale's 53.

MinneapolisSt. Paul Dukakis limiMliUHUMMMMM 69 MinneapolisSt. Durenberger '88 Durenberger '82 Of the state's 87 counties, 36 voted Democratic for president (Dukakis) but Republican for Senate (Durenberger). Humphrey won only in counties 1 65 Suburban Twin Durenberger '88 Durenberger '82 Northern Minnesota Durenberger '88 Durenberger '82 Southern Minnesota fiiiiii'iMM'ialL 1 1 1 1 Bush I I Durenberger PH r-iBush 1 I I 1 Humphrey Durenberger '88 Durenberger '82 Smaller cities Durenberger '88 Durenberger '82 Strong DFL areas Durenberger '88 Durenberger '82 Strong IR areas Durenberger '88 r1 Dukakis I Lmm I Humphrey 178 1 66 Durenberger '82 that also voted tor uuxaKis. I Dukakis I Durenberger Star Tribune graphic sentative precincts across the state.

In those precincts within the Eighth Congressional District, which includes Duluth and the Iron Range, Durenberger improved on his winning performance of 1982 by the startling margin of almost 10 percentage points. Durenberger did so well there, building on the base of DFL voters he picked up in two previous elections, that he almost finished even with Humphrey in the Eighth District. That's certain death for a statewide DFL candidate, because small towns, farming areas and suburbs iend to vote for Republicans. In the other DFL strongholds, the cities of St. Paul and Minneapolis, independent candidate Polly Mann cut into Humphrey's margin.

Mann unsuccessfully challenged Humphrey 8th Congressional Districts, southern Minnesota as 1st and 2nd Districts. Tribune sample of 100 precincts statewide. speeches elsewhere in the nation. As a result, Dukakis held onto and built slightly on Walter Mondale's 1984 showing in DFL strongholds and did much better than Mondale in southern Minnesota and the suburbs, the sample precincts show. The Dukakis campaign was functioning more than a year before the election.

In February's precinct caucuses, that machine gave Dukakis his first victory in the nomination fight outside of New England. In contrast, Bush essentially never asked Minne-sotans for their vote, and finished a poor fourth in the Republican field. If Bush had any sort of entree at all to Minnesota, such as the regional appeal of Kansas Sen. Bob Dole, the story might have been different. As the Dukakis campaign gained strength and Humphrey's sputtered Paul 45 144 Cities 61 158 i57 348 65 1 59 155 51 36 134 i76 1 76 last summer, the former stepped in to help the latter.

The Dukakis organi zation essentially picked up much of' the Humphrey apparatus, and got criticized by Republicans for allegedly mixing campaign funds improperly. When it was over, Dukakis had recaptured many but not all of the Reagan Democrats that Mondale lost in his narrow 1984 Minnesota win, according to a Star Tribune analysis of the sample precincts. Democrats may be proud of Dukakis' showing, but the Star Tribune survey shows that he did not realize the full potential of DFL strength, judging by previous voting patterns. And Humphrey was beaten about as badly as DFL Secretary of State Joan Growe was by Sen. Rudy Boschwitz in 1984's Senate race.

British bookies suggest Bush is good bet to win in '92 Associated Press i London, England With the counting of presidential ballots barely completed in the U.S. election, London bookmakers Wednesday al- I ready were assessing President-, elect George Bush's chances of a second term and they looked good. Bookmakers William Hill made the vice president the 5-2 favorite for a second presiden- i tial term, while giving his Re-publican party as a whole 1 -2 odds. The bookmakers were offering 6-4 odds on a Democrat- ic victory in 1992. Sen.

Bill Bradley, led the field of Democratic con- tenders with 6-1 odds followed by New York Gov. Mario Cuo- mo at 8-1. Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis, who lost to Bush af- ter a grueling campaign, was given 20-1 odds. The same odds were offered on the Rev.

Jesse Jackson, who lost the Democratic nomination. Actor Clint Eastwood, a former mayor of Carmel, had 33-1 odds, while William Hill put the chance of any woman winning the presidency at 100- 1. The 5-2 odds on Bush mean that if the president-elect wins a second term, a bet of $2 i would win $5 plus the original 1 stake. Analysis By Dane Smith -Staff Writer Michael Dukakis and Hubert Humphrey III had a lot in common going into Election Day in Minnesota. jBoti left-of-center Democrats, they shared virtually identical views on the issues.

They pitched the same piessage to the same target audiences, fuoh as young families and senior citizens. The similarities extend even to appearance; each was about a half-foot shorter and somewhat less telegenic than his opponent. Ko how come Minnesota voters gave presidential candidate Dukakis a victory by 8 percentage points and rejected U.S. Senate candidate Humphrey by twice that margin? irhp candidates' different fates can be Explained in large measure by the fiuality of their campaign organizations and, of course, by profound pifferences in the preparedness and appeal of their Republican opponents, George Bush and Dave Durenberger. were other factors, too.

In both tases, the campaigns that spent the Jnost won. Incumbents everywhere proved to be tough to beat in the tomplacent atmosphere of 1988; )urenberger was an incumbent, and Jice President Bush only halfway Qualified as such. put organization, DFL Party insiders Jay, stands out as the most distin-uishing feature of the Dukakis and Humphrey campaigns, i ny DFL campaign that hopes to juccecd in Minnesota must aim for lopsided majorities on the Iron jlange and in the Twin Cities. The jdea is to identify all the Democrats in town and then round them up and jet them to the polls. It seems like a Simple concept, but it takes a lot of ork, a certain flair at schmoozing nd nuts-and-bolts experience to build the kind of campaign that later Appears to have its own momentum, i DFL insiders say Humphrey, whose (tie father was the grand master of skills, simply didn't have the nack.

Although the junior Humphrey won respect as the campaign Humphrey He leaves his uture open; won't rule Anything out Paul McEnroe and Betty Wilson taff Writers I ijf he was hurting after being denied die U.S. Senate seat once held by his mther, Skip Humphrey hid it well Wednesday as he fielded questions of 'Wfiat if. and "Why not from everybody who wanted to know What (Hubert Humphrey III left his future ide open in a morning-after post-i lortem. "I'm not ruling anything qut, he said with a smile. he Democrat was kicked around in i bruising political battle with GOP 5 en.

Dave Durenberger, but Humphrey let it be known that his defeat in't going to stop him from running again for office. "I was always willing to take the test and I will in the fjlture," he said, itrhis only political defeat, there was no apparent bitterness toward his opponent or pessimism in his tone, "Vdu gain strength by being tested," he said. "This is not the end; this is jCfttthe beginning. As I said last night, there is only one direction to go and it is to go forward." But party strategists in the DFL and IR parties will want to see just what that means wtjen Humphrey faces reelection as attorney general in 1 990. Will he settle for an office no higher tiff rj that, or will he bide his time for awun at the governor's office in the rpJ-1990s? Will he think about a congressional race against Rep.

Bill rfrcnzel or go into private law practice This ripe speculation exists because getting only 41 percent of the vjot with a famous name docs not generate a lot of hope that Humphrey can win a higher office. 'J think there was a rejection of his message, not Skip Humphrey the Mondale Suburban Twin Cities Dukakis Mondale 150 147 Northern Minnesota Dukakis i53 Mondale 1 50 Southern Minnesota Dukakis Mondale 148 1 44 Smaller cities Dukakis 52 Mondale 1 49 Strong DFL areas Dukakis Mondale Strong IR areas Dukakis Mondale i 30 Northern Minnesota defined as 7th Source: Complete returns from the for the DFL endorsement and undoubtedly attracted some feminists and people from the party's liberal wing. Mann typically got up to 10 percent of the vote in some Minneapolis precincts of the Star Tribune survey, enough to deny Humphrey a plurality over Durenberger. But her overall influence was not an important factor. She received about 2 percent of the vote, hardly a critical factor in Durenberger's victory.

Dukakis, in contrast to Humphrey, was widely considered to have the preeminent political machine in the state. It was put together by two savvy young Iron Rangers, Gary Cerkvenik and Pat Forciea. Dukakis seldom failed to visit northern Minnesota when he came to the state, and he mentioned the state and the region's economic problems in his 1M I Humphrey said one of his biggest wishes was for "a couple of more million dollars" to run the campaign against a two-term incumbent who outfinanced him two-to-one. Why did he lose? "I can't really answer that at this point. The mood of the public, I think, has to be assessed a little bit.

I tried to raise some issues that people of the country will have to face." He said he took a call yesterday morning from former Gov. Orville Freeman, who recalled how Humphrey's father had lost campaigns for high office twice and then went back to the Senate and did more than ever. and Star gain strength by being tested' wore on for his unflagging spirit and sincerity, he missed opportunity after opportunity to build his organization. One DFL operative said that a typical day in the Humphrey campaign, especially in the earlier stages, involved dropping into a community for a small fund-raiser and a meeting with a few supporters, then going home to his family in the Twin Cities suburbs. Humphrey was not exactly inept as a politician, and he was by no means lazy, but he appeared not to be consumed by what politicians call "the fire in the belly." Humphrey's spirit is more like pep than obsession, and DFLers say his energies were not well-focused.

The results are vividly shown in the Star Tribune analysis of 100 repre- says 'you HA. ft -V i fV: -It Staff Photo by Richard Sennott Hubert Humphrey III met with his staff at the Metrodome Holiday Inn Tuesday night The unsuccessful U.S. Senate candidate said Wednesday that his loss to GOP Sen. Dave Durenberger isn't going to stop him from running again. "I was always willing to take the test and I will In the future." fdenotes incumbent 100 of precincts reporting Durenberger-IRf 1.171,364 57 Humphrey III- DFL 853,245 41 Mann-lnd.

43.238 2 other people out there waiting to fight for seats they've eyed for a long time." But Joe Tessmer, Humphrey's campaign manager, dismissed the fact that Humphrey drew just 41 percent of the vote. "It was just a fantastic year to be an incumbent, and you could tell over the last four to five months the voters didn't want to go through major changes. Plus, Durenberger's campaign was superb he was served well by a 'Rose Garden' strategy going to town meetings in public but rarely letting the public talk to him." person," said Bob Meek, who was senior adviser in Secretary of State Joan Growe's unsuccessful DFL bid to unseat Sen. Rudy Boschwitz in 1984. "The voters reacted angrily to commercials and his 'long-ball strategy' of trying to shake up this election with those kinds of negatives," he said.

"But I also think they saw a Skip Humphrey who bleeds for them, not a Skip Humphrey who floats because of his name. He was labeled a lightweight before this campaign, but I saw him able to compete at a senatorial level, which erased the notion he wasn't up to the job. As for a higher office than AG, I just don't think so; I think there are too many "I intend to do the same," said Humphrey. "I was always willing to take the test.".