Northwest Arkansas Times from Fayetteville, Arkansas on February 26, 1973 · Page 8
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Northwest Arkansas Times from Fayetteville, Arkansas · Page 8

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Fayetteville, Arkansas
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Monday, February 26, 1973
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Page 8
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· Ancoiwos TIMES, FAVITTCVILLI, ARKANSAS 1973 Agricultural Experts Analyze Future Farm Income Prospects By George R. Hohmaun .TIMES W»sbln|{lon Bureau : WASHINGTON -- The gov- .ernment's foremost agricultural experts gathered here last week to assess farm trends for the future, and their predictions generally had a rosy tint. , The experts forecast farm ·.income prospects in the years vahead. And they analyzed l. present and future markets for ' a spectrum of farm products-from dairy products to feed /train to fruits. ' · The occasion was "Outlook 73," the U.S. Agriculture Department's yearly exercise in [soothsaying. The idea behind ;-th« three-day program was to give farmers an idea of what lies ahead. Net farm income Is expected .-to total $19 billion in 1973, ac!cording to C. Kyle Randall, ·chairman of USDA's Outlook and Situation Board. . Randall said 1973 net income is expected to fall just short !of the record $19.2 billion 1972 figure because a strong upward surge in expenses is likely. . He observed that net income Vill hover near the $19 billion mark despite the fact that direct government payments to producers will decline more than $1 billion from the $4 billion paid in 1972. The anlici- Production c o s t s are expected to continue rising in 1973, Cathcart said, mostly because of sharply higher feed oosts brought about by the strong domestic and export demand for grains and soybeans and the imited availability of fish meal. Prospects through 1975 are for e x p a n d i n g production a n d consumption of broiler and urkey meal, Cathcart said. Egg continue to with consumption per person likely to decline a bit more before leveling off. DAIRY PRODUCTS: For the dairy industry, the future will depend on the industry's ability production will ncrease slowly. paled Nixon reduction reflects the Administration's proposals for less government involvement in agriculture. ' Here Is a rundown on the outlook f o r specific f a r m products as outlined at the conference: LIVESTOCK; Cash receipts ; from cattle and calves will rise ·on added sales volume and ·'higher prices. Analyst Donald ·. Seaborg observed that "the ''· accelerated growth of the cattle ·', herd and the upcoming rise in '·pork production point toward '.even larger supplies of bolh ·;bcef and pork in 1974." £ Hog producers will see larger . ; m a r k e t i n g s and improved ;iprices, the experts predicted, as ·;the market rebounds from ttie 1. depressed production and prices .'experienced in lale 1970 and '. 197]. .; POULTRY: The increase in '· red meat supplies will mean ·^greater competition for poultry during the second half of 1973, ·; jaid William E. Cathcart. f Cathcart foresees only smal ·|to moderate increases in 1973 '· output, resulting in prices for ·', broilers and turkeys slightly :· above 1972 levels. ·! Egg prices, currently well /above 1972's low levels, will ·Idecline seasonally this spring .but continue through the ' s u m m e r a t "substantially above" a year earlier, Cathcar ,, predicted. per cent consuming to build according Mathis. M a t h i s production maintain sales, anaylst A. G. dairymen's are rising said costs "aster than their gross income so far this year and the 1973 net return may be down from 1971 and 1972. Milk prices promise to average about four to five per cent more , than 1972, Mathis said, noting that even if dairy price supports remain at the minimum 75 per cent parity dairy farmers are assured of annual price increases of three to four ahead. per cent in the years Mathis said the ability of the dairy industry to maintain or exceed 1972 commercial sales will be an important deter minant of prices this year, since supplies are in near balance with market demand. Last year was the first in nearly two decades when pel capita consumption gained, he noted. But he said per capita consumption will likely dip in 1973 as government programs like school lunch and fooc stamps are altered. Mathis said the inudstry can expect little help in the form of exports. They declined in 1972 and are likely to do so agait this year because foreign dairj supplies are at high levels, he said. If feed prices and supplies return to more normal levels, U.S. milk output likely will resume the upward trend interrupted by this year's ex- Increase animals grain 1972-73 f e e d situation, "If consumption traordiriary Mathis said. trends of recent years continue and the industry approximately balances output with market demand. U.S. milk production will vary little in the 1380s from present levels." he said. FEED GRAIN: The 1072 feed grain crop was 5'per cent below the record set in 1971, but if you count the carryover from last year the total supply is up 5 million tons from 1971-72, said analyst Jack S. Ross. Ross forcees a one to two and generally favorable hog and beef feed price ratios adding up to only a moderate rise in domestic feed grain use. But exports to nations are mother story. Ross sees world exports in 1972-73 at nearly 15 icr cent more than the records set in the mid-1960s; U.S. exports during the period are projected at a record 33 million short tons, up six million from last season's level. Ross predicts the demand for feed concentrates will continue to rise in the years ahead, o b s e r v i n g that "continued population growth and rising per capita income will have a double-barrelled impact on consumer demand for meat and other livestock products." Ross said feed grains exports should reach 8 million tons by 1985, well above the 18 to 23 million ion range recorded during 1966-70. WHEAT: ..Highlighting the 1972-73 wheat scene, according to analyst James .1. Naive, "are prospects for record exports and disappearance, one of the sharpest stock drawdowns on record, and the highest farm wheat prices since 1947." The unpredictability of wheat exports makes the future question mark, said Naive. He said Asia, Central America am eastern South America hold potential for U.S. exports, that they can not fill the vacuum created if Russia stops its massive wheat purchases. Feeding appears to hold the brightest growth prospect foi domestic wheat use. Naive said assuming that prices wil bccp.me competitive for feeding While wheat feeding is now ii the 200-250 million bushel range he said, it could easily rang from 300-350 million bushels in 10 to 15 years. RICE: ..Reduced supplies increased use and higher price: c h a r a c t e r i z e the 1972-7! marketing year for rice, Naive said. He predicted plantings wil ncrease in 1973 and said work c o n d i t i o n s favor continue! strong demand. N a i v e wondered alout v h et h e r adverse weathe: precipitated the heated demam interna 1972 Job Enrichment Said Needed To Keep Industry Efficient By JOHN CUNNIFF Business Analyst NEW YORK CAP) -- The March for efficiency lias brought American industry through many phases since the · era of time and motion studies during the late 1930s and 1940s to the latest richment. product, job en Experimentation with human engineering, or the designing o products to better suit and serve humans, became popular late in the 1940s. Machine con trols were placed at eye level lathes were made safer, light ing was improved. Following in the efficienc continuum came automation : the advent of electronic con trols and other devices aimed at improving productivity b reducing the human componen of routine activities. . - · · And now in the 1970s there i l reaction to some of the tech niques of the past. Workers ar .rebelling against piece work lack of personal responsibility repetition and inability to us skills. What was once acceptd · for the sake of efficiency, i ; BOW producing inefficiency. Absenteeism, tardiness, lac: of ambition, employe turnove ahd poor product quality ar some of the manifestations Tools Stolen Clyde Stokes of Route 7, Fay elteville told police that belwce 4 and 8:30 a.m. Sunday a loo kit containing tools valued a $50; a work coat; two quart of oil and a carton of cigarette were taken from his picku; truck. Fair Condition Ronnie Miller. 21, of Sunse Community, is in fair conclitioi today at Washington Genera ^ Hospital following a motorcycl ·accident. Miller was brought tc '· the hospital by private vehicle ; Details of the accident were un ·available today. ;· Roach Graduates t \ Air Nations] Guard (ANG jMaster Sgt. Robert G. Roach 'son of Mrs. Lillian B. Roach j R t . 2, Bentonville, has · graduated at Lackland AFB ^Tex., from the U.S. Air Froce ^recruiter course. He is an ANC Jrecruiter at Tulsa. He is a 195 · graduate of Bentonville High. IXPCMT WATCH HIPAI* . SWIFTS fTNwth MM* St. And so the latest goal of efficiency seekers is job enrichment. TWO DEVELOPMENTS Dr. John Drake, an adviser to many blue chip corporations on job enrichment, believes that the rebellion against the emptiness of the work day is an mderstandahle consequence of two developments. First, said Drake, who heads Drake-Beam Associates, as a nation becomes more industrial and rising prices in ional rice markets 73. The answer to that question said, would help in predic .ing trends for the long term While per capita consumption and brewer use of rice wil c o n t i n u e to increase moc erately, he said, export will continue to be the U.S.' largest market outlet. VE G E T A B L E S ; As fo vegetables and potatoes, "man growers and processors hold th high cards this year," sai' anaylst Charles W. Porter. "Prices are up for nearly a items and apart from th inevitable ups and downs in th short term, we predict, trin supplies, generally favorabl prices and firm demand con tinuing through the comin year," Porter said. FRUIT: The outlook for fruit is mixed, according to anayls Larry V. Summers. He noted thai non-citrus fru: prices are now high, mostly du to a low supply resulting from bad weather. Current hig prices, he said, may spur in creased production during th next few seasons, a move tha could eventually make price fait. By 1985, Summers said, an nual consumption of non-citru its workers earn more. satisfy immediate needs and have discretionary income. But they want more than money They may seek meaning in their work. Second, cultural pressures also develop. The individua views himself differently. He sees himself as a person of dig nity. "I am good." he says in effect, an attitude which logi cally leads to "I should he treated as such." The technique of efficiency ii this decade, he said, will be to make work more meaningful and thus encourage the worker toward higher production and better quality. NEEDED To be successful. Drake he lieves. any enrichment pro gram must have these charac teristics: it is a complete piece of work: it must provide the worker with decision-making control; it must offer feedback on performance. Many routine jobs alreadj have been enriched. In a tele vision factory, groups oF work ers who once did simple, repi tilious jobs on an assembly line now take full responsibility for the assembly and quality of en tire units. Job enrichment, said Drake is now in its second generation, with its sights set on vestruct ing entire units and redislrihu ing the pieces of work so that each worker has a piece o work to call his own. LUMBER n : COMPLETE LINE g of ~ BUILDING MATERIALS § Delivery Service s Available | BankAmerrcard-Masler Charge a, Welcome ~ We Also Have NEW HOMES Available in Several Locations 'KELLEY BROS. LUMBER .CO. West End of Township Road at 2401 North Gregg Phone 442-2351 uits is expected to drop from ic 100 pounds-per-person level : the late 1960s to about 97 i 98 pounds-per person. That projection led Summers i conclude that "looking down he road to about 1985 and using ast trends as an indication of jture market potentials, the outlook for non-citrus fruit is not particularly encouraging." Total U.S. output of citrus is expected to reach 13.6 million tons this season, an increase of 12 per cent from last season's record harvest, Summers said. Past trends indicate an expanding demand for citrus is expected to increase from the 95 pound level in recent years to 106 pounds by 1985. Barring major freeze damage or other adverse growing conditions, the total citrus supply may continue to increase for several years, Summers said. But total tree n u m b e r s appear to be stabilizing, which may signal a leveling-off in production about midway through the 1970s. "Pressure on land values for recreation or urbanization may result in a relatively constant or declining land base for citrus by 1985," concluded Summers that the said. He domestic production level, implied by projected market requirements and trade balances, would be about 14 million tons by 1985. That's not a great deal above this yearr's 13.6 million tons, Summers observed, but it's well above the 10-11 million tons produced in other recent years. . THE FUN PLACE TO SHOP FOR THE ENTIRE FAMILY thickness thickness thickness thickness thickness $ 2.57 $ 5.27 $ 7.87 $10.44 $12.97 OF POIYURETH ANE FOAM REPLACE... REUPHOLSTER... 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