The Philadelphia Inquirer from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania • Page 54

i1 vt rrrt tfe fiilatolpftta Inquirer business I 1 8-D Saturday, Nov. 24, 1984 4' I After election, confusion reigns among economists cheaper imported goods. Meanwhile, America's export industries continue to suffer sales declines. The optimism and high spirits of the election campaign gave way to worries over two deficits the projected S20S billion budget deficit for the fiscal year that began Oct. 1 and the projected S130 billion trade deficit for 1984.

After months of insisting that the economy would expand fast enough to make up for much of the budget deficit by 1989, the administration dramatically revised its figures a raised fears of a growth recession a period of relative stagnation during which growth in the economy is not strong enough to prevent an increase in unemployment. Real average weekly earnings dropped by 0.9 percent in October. The figure has fallen by 1.3 percent over the last three months. Consumer prices continued to rise at a moderate rate of 4.3 percent annually. But even good news proved worrisome because it was attributed largely to the influx of week after the election to show that the budget deficit would increase, rather than decrease, if the current trend continues.

That could mean large tax increases will be needed to close the gap, because President Reagan has ruled out cuts in Social Security and military spending. If entitlements, the military and interest on the federal debt are untouchable, less than 20 percent of the proposed budget Reagan will send to Congress in January would be open for cutting to (See ECONOMY on 16-D) Durable-goods orders dropped sharply for the second month, for a total decline of 7.4 percent for October and September. When non-defense items alone were considered, the drop was even more dramatic. Retail sales declined in October, just as the nation's retailers were gearing up for the Christmas buying season. As a result, "sale" signs sprouted in many stores across the country.

The gross national product increased by only 1.9 percent in the July-to-September quarter, which tistics showing the economy headed toward a growth recession. On Wednesday, after another lackluster trading day on Wall Street, the Federal Reserve Board announced that it was lowering its discount rate to 8.5 percent from 9 percent. The move was interpreted as an attempt to keep the economy from falling into a recession and as a response to a barrage of business reports that showed the economy almost at a standstill. Among the news reports that economists found disquieting: By Paul Magnusson Inquirer WuMnfton Bureau WASHINGTON Economists, business people and politicians could agree on one thing this week as they struggled to interpret the post-election economy: puzzlement. While a top official of the Office of Management and Budget complained that he had "never seen economists so confused," worried business people scanned conflicting news reports of proposed massive income tax changes and economists struggled to explain gloomier-than-expected sta Dow gain is biggest in a month Discount-rate dip affects trading iinW-V Tiii itfW- in iitnr i ii cu nm.iin mri iiimmh ri iriiininMiM iniiiimiirT'-i mti i m.J miffm-tim-mn Spacul lo Th Inquirer MARY D'ANELLA Allison Holcombe, 3, plays with toy bears at Cherry Hill Mall; yesterday was Black Friday, so called, some say, because it puts stores in the black Christmas crush starts with quest for dolls By Chet Currier Associated Press NEW YORK The stock market scored its best gain in more than a month yesterday after the Federal Reserve announced that it was reducing its discount rate.

Auto issues were especially strong in a post-holiday session of moderate trading activity. The Dow Jones average of 30 industrials climbed 18.78 to 1,220.30, extending its gain for the week to 32.36 points. That marked the biggest daily rise for the average since it jumped 29.49 points on Oct. 18. Volume on the New York Stock Exchange came to 73.91 million shares, against 81.62 million Wednesday.

After the market closed on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced a half-point reduction, to 8.5 percent, in the discount rate the charge it imposes on loans to private financial institutions. Fed action welcomed The move was regarded as a strong signal that the Fed was seeking to foster a further decline in interest rates in order to keep the economy from slowing too much. Most analysts welcomed the Fed's action. But they also noted that it had been widely anticipated on Wall Street. Along with its positive aspects, they also observed, it underscored the central bank's apparent concern that the recent decline in business activity might lead to a recession.

Despite the recent drop in interest rates, monetary growth remains sluggish at best. After the close, the Fed issued figures showing a $1.3 billion decline in the basic measure of the money supply for the week ended Nov. 12. The Friday after Thanksgiving is traditionally one of the quietest days of the year on Wall Street, with many investors taking a long holiday. But it also has a strong historical upward bias.

Over the last 32 years, noted Newton Zinder at E.F. Hutton the Dow Jones industrial average had risen on this particular trading day 28 times, and posted only fractional losses in the other four. Blue chips up Among stocks benefiting from expectations of lower interest rates, and a possible resumption in economic growth in 1985, were the auto issues. General Motors climbed 2 to 77'4; Ford Motor 2 to 46 and Chrysler 1 to 28. Other blue chips posting gains of a point or more included International Business Machines, up 1 at 122; Minnesota Mining Manufacturing, up 1 at 82V4; Procter Gamble, up 1 at 59, and Merck, up 1 at 89.

Advancing issues outnumbered declines by more than 3 to 1 on the Big Board, and the exchange's composite index jumped 1.31 to 96.10. Nationwide turnover in NYSE-list-ed issues, including trades in those stocks on regional exchanges and in the over-the-counter market, totaled 87.40 million shares. Standard Poor's index of 400 industrials picked up 2.54 to 187.09, and 500-stock composite index was up 2.40 at 166.92. The NASDAQ composite index for the over-the-counter market gained 2.44 to 245.45. At the American Stock Exchange, the market value index closed at 209.22, up 1.82.

"We asked them why they wanted another, and they looked at us and said 'You and Mom have more than one said Slattery, an investment-firm executive. This is the second Christmas that Coleco's Cabbage Patch Kids have swept toy counters across the nation. The West Hartford, company introduced the dolls in June 1983, and by Christmas 1983 it sold 3.2 million dolls worth $65 million. Coleco projects that 20 million dolls (one for each 3-to-8-year-old child in the United States and Canada) will be sold by the end of 1984. The company said it already had delivered $250 million worth of dolls but would be able to fill only two-thirds of the $300 million in back orders by Christmas.

"We have had waiting lists for Cabbage Patch dolls all year," said Mar-inda Christopher, spokeswoman for the Toys 'R Us chain of toy stores By Ray Holton Inquirer Staff Writer Black Friday, the biggest Christmas-shopping day of the year, was going to be dismal for John and Kathy Slattery of Wayne. They were number 280 in a line at 7 a.m. yesterday waiting for 250 Cabbage Patch dolls at the toy counter of the Jefferson Ward store in Norris-town. Discouraged, they wandered over to the King of Prussia mall, where they found a queue of shoppers at the doors of Kiddie City. The doors opened at 9:15 a.m., and by 9:30 a.m.

10 cases (80 dolls in all) were sold at $26.99 apiece. Some mothers sobbed tears of joy at the checkout counter. The Slatterys, however, were beaming as they each clutched a genuine Cabbage Patch infant for their two daughters, who already had earlier versions of the doll. based in Rochelle Park, N.J. "People signing up on the lists in March had to wait three months." But since September, she said, "we've been telling people we can't1 promise delivery in time for Christmas.

Hopefully they will get it by early next year." Kenner Products, a unit of General Mills said it had had a hard time keeping up with demand for its popular doll lines: Rainbow Brite and the fuzzy Care Bears. Kenner hopes to ship about nine million Care Bears and sell $110 million worth of Rainbow Brite dolls. And for the boys, robots such as GoBots from the Tonka Toys Divi-sion of Tonka Spring Park, and Transformers from Hasbro Bradley are popular items. Dolls and robots are dominating this year's $11.5 billion market in toys, not including video games, said (See TOYS on 16-D) The Philadelphia Inquirer Cabbage Patch dolls are still fiercely sought-after In fighting glut, OPEC's income and output slid in 1983 Associated Press VIENNA, Austria The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said yesterday that its crude-oil exports fell 13.8 percent in 1983 from the previous year and that the value of the shipments dropped 20.25 percent. The official figures highlighted OPEC's change of fortunes.

For example, the combined gross national product of the 13 OPEC -countries, the broadest measure of the market value of the goods and services they produce, fell for the first time since 1966, dropping to $618.46 billion last year from $672.45 billion in 1982, according to the annual statistical bulletin released by the OPEC Secretariat. Two recessions in the United States since 1980 plus an economic slowdown that was felt worldwide lowered demand for oil at a time when consumers were shifting to other fuels and conserving energy in response to skyrocketing oil prices. As a result, in 1983 OPEC cut its official prices for the first time ever, reducing the bench-mark Arabian Light blend to $29 a barrel from $34. In addition, OPEC set a 17.5-million-barrel daily production limit for the 13-nation cartel in an effort to dry up a world oil glut that had led to the lower prices. Last month, OPEC lowered its production ceiling even further, to 16 million barrels a day, in an attempt to maintain its official In contrast, OPEC produced nearly 31.5 million barrels of oil daily in 1979, its peak production year.

OPEC's deputy secretary general, Fadhil al-Chalabi, said in the for ward to the report that the OPEC price and production accord of March 1983 was the "most significant" move in the organization's 24-year history. That accord "marked individual sacrifices" in oil revenues, which form the lifelines of member countries, he said. OPEC said its total crude-oil exports fell to 12.24 million barrels a day in 1983 from 14.2 million in 1982. The value of the exports fell to $162.79 billion in 1983 from $204.12 billion in 1982, the official OPEC news agency, Opecna, reported. The report said OPEC's share in world crude-oil trade fell to 59 percent in 1983 from 63.6 percent in 1982, while its share of world crude production fell to 32.2 percent from 35.4 percent.

OPEC's foreign-trade balances also suffered a sharp decline. The cartel's overall deficit in its current account, which measures the gap in trade in goods and services, widened to $18.62 billion in 1983 from the 1982 deficit of $11.8 billion. 'Comparable-worth' proposal is opposed by manufacturers' group work but that the concern of compa By Merrill Hanson Associated Press WASHINGTON The National Association of Manufacturers is urging the federal government to stay out oi the controversy over "comparable worth," a proposal that says men and women should be paid equally for performing similar work. Alexander B. Trowbridge, president of the lobbying organization for manufacturing corporations, said in a policy statement issued this week that the manufacturers' group had long endorsed equal pay for equal relatively recent entry into the work force and their tendency to have less education, training and experience than their male counterparts." He added that "as women achieve seniority, advanced training and education, that gap will continue to narrow without government intrusion." Lawsuits challenging state governments on the comparable-worth issue have been filed in a number of states including Washington, California and Michigan.

President Reagan has indicated he would oppose a com rable worth went too far. The group's 230-member board of directors, he said, "is unanimously opposed to the creation of a government entity that would decide the worth of jobs, but favors measures that would give women and men the opportunity to achieve parity in the work force." The association's directors "are fully aware that a wage gap exists between men and women," Trowbridge said, "but believe much of the gap can be attributed to women's parable-worth system, which White House economist William Niskanen called "a truly crazy proposal." Last Friday, Clarence M. Pendleton chairman of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights, called the concept "the looniest idea since Looney Tunes came on the scene." Little momentum has developed in Congress for legislative proposals seeking to end disparities in pay awarded to men Sand women when they perform similar, but not identical, jobs requiring comparable education, skills and competence a female registered nurse in Minnesota was paid $1,723 a month and a male vocational educational teacher received $2,260 monthly, even though both jobs were rated comparable at 273 points. The Supreme Court has never directly addressed the issue, but the notion gained attention last year when U.S.

District Judge Jack Tanner ruled that Washington state had illegally practiced wage discrimination in paying female workers at lower rates than men doing jobs requiring comparable skills. One bill sponsored by Rep. Mary Rose Oakar Ohio) would authorize a study of whether such a concept could be tested in the the federal work force. Two researchers at the State University of New York in Albany recently suggested a formula for determining the value of jobs, with points assigned for such factors as job-related experience, formal training, supervision responsibilities and physical stress. Under their formula, for example,.