The Los Angeles Times from Los Angeles, California • Page 37

LOS ANGELES TIMES WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 26, 1994 Commentary PERSPECTIVE ON RUSSIA What a Menacing Mess We've Made backing that would have bolstered reforms, they were attacked for being stooges of the West, selling out the country for empty promises. In 1992, the West promised $24 billion in aid for the year. In fact, Russia received about The West must hope for a chance to make good on its lapsed pledge of aid for the crippled Russian reform effort. By JEFFREY SACHS gized the Marshall Plan, no one wanted to emulate it. As a result, the Western governments looked for surrogate, off-budget sources of aid, including the IMF, the World Bank and export-credit agencies.

Unfortunately, none of these sources could provide the kinds of grant aid and budgetary support most urgently needed in Russia. The IMF then made a mess of the assistance effort. The major industrial countries, the so-called G-7, put the IMF in charge of coordinating the aid process, but the IMF acted like a wary banker rather than coordinator of Western aid. Its only real advice to Russia was to cut the budget deficit. There are many in the West who believe that assistance could have played $10 billion, most of it so re- stricted it could hardly be considered aid.

One billion came from the International Monetary Fund, under the surrealistic condition that the money had to be held in the bank and not used. In 1993, the record was even worse. The West promised $28 billion for the year. In the end, approximately $5 billion was actually delivered. While Western governments eulo no useful role anyway, but these critics of aid misunderstand the basic economics and politics involved.

The aid could have strengthened the political hand of the reformers enormously. Of course, Western money alone can't save Russia if Russia fails to make reforms, as is likely to be the case with the new government. But the combination of reforms and assistance could have worked during the past two years. To put a quantitative measure on this, $28 billion in Western aid could have financed Russia's budget deficit of $14 billion and provided an equal amount directly to Russian industry for restructuring. Western governments, in a panic, might now give the new anti-reform government much of the aid denied to the reformers.

But even with aid, the new government is likely to lead Russia into the inflationary abyss, as in neighboring Ukraine. There, a communist-led government has stoked up hyperinflation of nearly 100 per month along with collapsing production, a return to price controls and the closing down of international trade. This is likely to be Russia's fate unless the reformers win a chance to return to power before disaster strikes. The West would do best now to prepare for another possible chance to help real Russian reformers. The IMF and World Bank need a shake-up of top management.

The G-7 must be prepared in the future to give real budget support as well. Then we must wait and hope that Russia turns again to real reform and avoids the catastrophe of political extremism that could endanger us all. Jeffrey Sachs is Galen L. Stone Professor of International Trade at Harvard. He has been serving as an economic adviser to Russian President Boris Yeltsin, but resigned in protest last Friday.

The enormity of the West's foreign-policy blunders concerning Russia is rapidly becoming clear. In the week after President Bill Clinton's summit with Boris Yeltsin, in which Clinton expressed full faith in Russia's reforms, economic reformers Yegor Gaidar and Boris Fyodorov have been purged from the government, Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin has denounced "Western economics" and the foreign minister has warned darkly of the continued presence of Russian troops in neighboring countries. All of this is a menace to Western security, as well as an acute embarrassment for the White House. Two years after Yeltsin proclaimed Russia's commitment to becoming a normal market economy and democratic society, and months after Presidents Clinton and Yeltsin spoke of a new "strategic partnership," Russia has fallen under the control of the communist old guard, aided by nationalist extremist parties. Tellingly, Yeltsin's new economic advisers are both old-guard communists.

Western leaders and the general public fail to understand our own culpability in the dangerous developments in Russia. For two years, the West failed to help Russia's reformers with real financial assistance. Worse, the West promised large amounts of money that never came. Not only did reformers lack the financial IGOR SHEiN, Moscow Times, Moscow The Straw Man Begets the iStraw Feminist Bobbitt case: How many women really think mutilation is the way to even the score? By ELLEN GOODMAN The straw feminist has made another cameo appearance. She is everywhere stalks of wheat sticking out her militant clothing.

She is starring in the i aftermath of the trial that found Lorena Bobbitt innocent by virtue of temporary -insanity. "This is a feminist dream come true," grumbled one man-in-the-street as he conjured her up for the television viewers, "It's open season on men." Sidney Siller, the founder of something called the National Organization for Men, I said on the "Today" show that after the verdict there was "a lot of glee from radical feminists." He pointed to an Ecuadoran group that threatened to cut off a hundred I penises if Lorena was found guilty. Well, I thought I had gotten used to the straw feminist. Twenty-odd years ago, she emerged like Eve out of the extra rib, or at least the excess stuffing, of the straw man. The straw man has been a useful creature throughout history.

Whenever people argued, he could be pulled together quickly out of the nearest available hay- stack and set up as an opponent. The beauty of the straw man was that he was easily defeated. You hardly had to huff and puff before you could blow him down, jl The straw man was also useful as a i scarecrow. The arguments attributed to '-him were not only flimsy, they were frightening. So I wasn't surprised when the straw feminist was sighted burning her bra a dangerous thing for any straw person to do at a Miss America pageant.

The fact rthat there never was a bra-burning was I irrelevant. Feminists became bra-burners. I Not to mention man-haters. The straw feminist wanted to drive all women out of their happy homes and into I the workforce. The straw feminist had an abortion as casually as she had a tooth pulled, The straw feminist and her first cousin the radical feminist was hostile to family life and wanted children warehoused in government-run day and night care.

't At times, the straw feminist was painted slightly pinko by the anti-communists or rather lavender by the anti-lesbians. But it was generally agreed upon that she was a castrating well, you fill in the blank. This creature was most helpful for discrediting real feminists but also handy for scaring supporters away. Whenever a woman stuck up for her rights, she could be asked through narrowing eyes, "You're not one of those feminists are you?" It got so that many young women would begin their most modest statements with a nervous glance at this voodoo figure; saying, "I'm not a feminist, but The funny thing is that remarkably few people investigated her stuffing. Which feminists, for example, chirpily extol abortion "on Names please.

How many feminists have actually trashed the importance of child-raising? Numbers please. I suppose it's possible to find a feminist for any position. There is no admissions exam to the sisterhood. There is as much variety under the umbrella bearing this label as there is outside it. But it is hard to find many who see Lorena Bobbitt as a standard-bearer of the movement.

It is harder still to find many who consider male genital mutilation as the way to even up the score between men and women. Even the straw collectors had to go to Ecuador to find the raw material for this fantasy. In the wake of this unique and legally complicated case, women's groups were careful not to applaud violence. Men as well as women weighed John's violence against Lorena's. The jury ultimately believed that the woman had been abused until she snapped.

So be it. For 45 days, Lorena Bobbitt will be under observation in the hospital. For those days and more, keep an eye on the straw feminist. In the current incendiary state of male-female relations, I fear she's being used as kindling. Ellen Goodman writes a syndicated col-umnin Boston.

Each Quake's Lessons Can Reduce Our Vulnerability of new structures. In the Jan. 17 earth fl quake, for example, strong motion records Risk reduction: But we have to commit the funds and choose lives over cost savings. were obtained at a seven-story hospital it) East Los Angeles that was constructed with large rubber pads (isolators) between pre-1971 requirements. A consequence of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was' legislation empowering Caltrans to retrofit high-priority bridges and overpasses.

The instrument recordings of recent California earthquakes have given the strength, duration and frequency of large seismic motions. These parameters are the essential ingredients for retrofit of old buildings and the seismic-resistant design then-current code and just open a month, was seriously damaged and later demolished. Last week, despite shaking similar to that recorded in 1971, the replacement hospital was not structurally damaged although operations ceased for a time. It met the minimum standards of the revised 1988 Uniform Building Code. Similarly, most highway structures damaged last week were designed to meet the foundation and the structure.

The records showed a significant reduction it the forces across the isolators. By BRUCE A. BOLT The Northridge earthquake has sharply refocused public opinion on seismic safety. Because such tragedies produce intense reactions, it is crucial that final judgments on the earthquake hazard in such megaci-ties as Los Angeles should be based on the historical, seismological and engineering evidence. What progress in earthquake mitigation has been made since the similarly damaging Sylmar temblor of 1971? Lives, property and industry have again been lost; why was more progress not made? There are two main problems.

First, the scientific understanding of earthquake generation, while significantly improved, is still seriously deficient in practical application. Pinpoint earthquake prediction is a distant dream. However, the geographical pattern of damaging, strong ground motion can now be more adequately forecast in areas where the basic geology is mapped, such as the Los Angeles and San Francisco Bay areas. Second, competing social and economic forces prevent optimal growth and application of engineering knowledge for risk reduction. Not only is there substantial deficiency in spending what is necessary to remove or seismically upgrade structures; there is also indecision between the minimization of loss of life and the cost benefits of preventing economic loss.

Since the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake and fire, seismic risk mitigation in California has been guided by the objective of the Seismological Society of America: to ensure against damage by proper studies of earthquake geographical distributions, activities and effects on buildings. The Northridge earthquake demonstrates that substantial progress has been made but much fundamental work still needs to be done. Key seismological lessons have increased the safety of individuals, industrial plants and urban infrastructure. In the 1971 Sylmar earthquake, Olive View Hospital, built according to the The Northridge earthquake emphasizes the lessons of Loma Prieta that many crucial lifelines such as electrical power, water, sewage, communication and transportation remain unacceptably fragile. The severance of the San Francisco Bay Bridge in the 1989 earthquake dramatically sJati this point, confirmed again by widespread failure of lifelines in the Northridge earth quake.

Nevertheless, such damage wlflll have been even more widespread if sensitivity to the problem had not been raised, by the earlier earthquakes. (HI People must consider all risks fjpm earthquakes on an individual basis. Tfteffi is thus an obligation in the assessment, the Northridge quake to explain the range of comparative risks to individuals, and production. A persistent difficulty the lack of agreement within our socjetjy about the highest priority goals of hazard abatement. Typically, legislators apprpprji ate special funds immediately after disasr, ters and propose many ordinances bills.

Experience indicates, however, interest declines rapidly as the balance risk from earthquakes and benefits from other actions comes into play. But despite the remaining prediction difficulties jand the technical gaps in engineering, no insurmountable reasons why eatf; quake risks cannot be steadily reduced in a decade or so to levels comparable to those of more familiar threats. We now proceed with the lengthy pl-b cess of analyzing the Northridge eaM'i quake and its aftermath. It is important 'td produce a checklist designed to help swer the question, "What if no actions' liatf been taken in light of the 1971 Sylmar earthquake to reduce earthquake vulneW bility?" anniJ Bruce A. Bolt, emeritus prof essoin seismology at UC Berkeley, is also fast president of the Seismological Societifutif America and past chairman of the California Seismic Safety Commission.

vibni j'lo'jd neighborhoods, making sure security orders were 1 A obeyed. During the Cold War, they mapped air-raiif Preparedness Isn't Optional V.V.B.1V UO. llUVlLHl out HIOI ailU UIgCU US jfiJ 10 Keep water, dried food and blankets ready to survive the aftermath of nuclear attack. nun hem The aftermath of a major earthquake may be nearly as traumatic, but at least we usual! can emrrop frnm Maybe California should mandate household seismic safety inspections to make sure we're all ready for the Big One. By KAREN CRIGSBY BATES We know that the four hopelessly outdated cans of creamed corn, the two liters of bottled water and the Wet Wipes we call our quake kit will be inadequate.

Yet as the aftershocks wind down and life returns to normal, it is human nature for us to become less concerned about our chances for survival when the earth moves big-time. So like children who are vaccinated against their will for a greater good, perhaps it's time to discuss ways in which we Californians can be encouraged forced, if necessary to become more earthquake-ready. Just as our cars are inspected biennially, perhaps our living spaces could be inspected for the presence of seismic bracing and quake kits. Insurance companies now offer reductions to those with good driving records; perhaps points could be given for residents who brace bookcases, bolt foundations, reinforce plate-glass windows. A 1 tax hike could cover the indigent families and the fixed-income elderly and disabled.

(Yes, it's going to cost money, but it's infinitely cheaper to pay for preventive measures than to finance a massive clean-up. Our purchasing power doesn't seem to have been affected by the tax invoked to assist victims of the 1989 Loma Prieta quake. Would you really put back that soft drink if it cost a few pennies more?) Maybe it's time to revive the Civilian Defense Corps. During World War II, members patrolled their the rubble without fearing widespread nuclear contamination. The ultimate irony would be to survive', the quake only to die in the weeks following from 1 starvation, dehydration or treatable illness or injury i8 because, like the grasshopper in the fable, we couldn'I'f be bothered to put some essentials away.

As life returns to normal, do yourself a favor-. Clipv and keep the quake information provided in this and.rf, other newspapers. Use the quake-kit suggestions li)W a shopping list and, each time you go to a grocery, drug or hardware store, buy one or two items and toss them i into your kit. You know what you'd want if you had to live totally under your own steam for, say, two 1 I weeks. The Northridcre auake was a hneo alarm fnr getting these things done, but we understand why they are necessary.

For the most part, we do not rail at the government for forcing us to do them. We do not consider them fascist plots to rid us of our precious right of self-determination. Perhaps it's time to extend mandatory requirements to earthquake preparedness, since too many of us seem uninterested in preparing for the self-sufficiency that will be necessary after the next huge temblor. The scenario for chaos and devastation has been illustrated pretty graphically by the Northridge quake last week; seismologists and disaster relief experts say that it can only become worse as our tectonic plates grind and shift inexorably toward the Big One. If a 6.6 earthquake was able to level buildings, snap the ribbons of highways that serve as our arteries for transportation and commerce and threaten to pollute much of our water supply, it stands to reason that even less will be left after an 8.

We know this, and we know that it will take much longer for relief or rescue after the Big One. We know that, unlike the Northridge quake, when help began arriving within hours, we may be on our own for days. Americans cherish the right to self-expression and achievement, but even the most rugged individualists among us concede that sometimes, the concerns of the individual must be subordinate to the good of the larger community. We agree, for instance, that people must be licensed to drive on public streets. And to ensure that only safe, non-polluting cars are driven, autos must be inspected and registered.

For our children to enter school, we must show proof that they have been inoculated against contagious diseases. Some of us may grumble at the inconvenience of Southern Californians; let's don't hit the snooze button and roll over. We might not get a second chance. Karen Grigsby Bates unites from Los Angeles about modern culture, race relations and politics for several national publications..