Democrat and Chronicle from Rochester, New York • Page 87

SUNDAY DEMOCRAT AND CHRONICLE, ROCHESTER, N.Y., MARCH 28. 1982 7F NEED A NURSE? A DAY A WEEK A MONTH OR LONGER 454-4930 MEDICAL PERSONNEL POOL Th City of Rochester is soliciting Requests for Proposals for management and operation of a Marina (canoe livery) located at Genesee Valley Park for the summer season, May-September, 1982 Proposals will be available from the Department of Recreation and Community Services. Office of Cultural Affair sSpeciat Events, 28 South Avenue. Rochester. NY 14604, or by calling 426-6692 Proposals will be accepted until p.m.

on April 5. 1962. For more trfformation. contact Dan Copeland. 428-6692 OO-Mar 21.

22. 23. 24. 25. 26, 27.

28-8t-04C 4 T-U Prospects High technology may be the key to most careers Automation to change how we work, what we do Th City of Rnchtr Oep.rl-nwit or Recreation and Community Services rs requesting proposals for the care and maintenance of selected City- owned parks and open spaces for the 1982 season. Proposals wiH be accepted from groups suct as: neighborhood associations, scout troups. church groups, ahd other responsible organizations The City will provide cash reimbursement on a limited busts; however, all proposals must indicate some component of volunteer effort. Proposals will be available from the Department of Recreation and Community Services. Office of the Commissioner.

City of Rochester. Room 222S. City Hall. 30 Church Street. Rochester.

NY 14614, or by calling 428-7018. Proposals will be accepted until p.m. on April 5, 1982. For more information, contact Knapp at 428-6770 QP-Mar 21. 22.

23. 24. 25. 26. 27.

T-U Sale or Rent? Read the RESTAURANT 731 East Main Street en 342-3090 Want Ads Daily homes along the West Coast! We'll Your even share the cost of your home- buying trip with our jvjn Home "irionaa. Sunshine Flight. Now You Can! Call toll-free for more information and free literature: 1-800-245-6316 Ryan Homes This advertisement is not an offering, which can only be made by a formal prospectus. Ryan Homes can help you have the Florida home you've always wanted; for vacationing, retirement, or investment! Choose from Ryan's villas, town-homes, and singFe-family "The fallacy in all these negative arguments," said Vincent E. Giuliano, a senior staff member of Arthur D.

Little a Cambridge, consulting firm, "is that there is a limited amount of work to do, and when you automate that work there will be less work to do." History shows, he said, that automation, while reducing jobs in some sectors, results in "whole new cadres of jobs that never existed before." In the past, new fields have always sprung up to replace those affected by automation. Workers moving off the farms found jobs in manufacturing; and as manufacturing became automated, more workers shifted to white-collar and service-industry jobs, such as those in nursing and the restaurant field. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, roughly 50 percent of all those employed in the United States hold white-collar jobs and 15 percent are in service industries. More than 32 percent are in blue-collar jobs and less than 3 percent are in farming. BUT SOME EXPERTS think that in coming years displaced workers will not find other employment as easily because the new technology, which automates brain work as well as muscle work, is so pervasive.

"I don't see where we can run to this time," said Robert T. Lund, assistant director of the Center for Policy Alternatives at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Robots, for.instance, can take over factory jobs that have heretofore defied automation, making possible the so-called workerless factory. And office automation systems, by speeding the flow of documents and transactions, are threatening to stunt employment growth in the service and white-collar sectors, which have so far picked up the slack as employment in other sectors has diminished. Those affected so far by office automation have been mainly secretaries who are still in short supply and other clerical workers, whose tasks can be speeded by replacing typewriters with electronic word processors and filing cabinets with computerized storage systems.

But new office automation systems are affecting management as well, because they give managers the ability to call up information out of the company computers and analyze it themselves, a function that once required a staff of subordinates and middle-level managers. Automation is also affecting the work of other professionals. Architects and engineers use computers to design buildings or products! And the field of artificial intelligence is producing sophisticated computer programs that can "think." THESE PROGRAMS CAN perform such tasks as medical diagnoses or deciding where to explore for oil. Thus the need for doctors, to cite one profession, could theoretically decline because less skilled people, with the help of such computer systems, could do some of the work that physicians now perform. Automation can even snap back at its creators those who work in the electronics industry.

A study prepared for the Ontario Manpower Com Introducing a brand new name in small computers: JJjJj The IBM Personal Computer It's small enough to fit into any home or business, but big enough to do a lot ot the things its bigger brothers can. For instance, handy features like function keys save time and errors in repetitious tasks. Or. you can mix text with sharp color graphics. The price? Under SI 600 for a starting system.

Ana you can expand that to a full-fledged business system complete with software and printer, lor under S6000. For the small personar computer backed by two of the biggest names in the business, check out the IBM Personal Computer at ComputerLand Jl 1 ComputerLand Vife know small computers. Let us introduce you. By Andrew Pollack New York Times Sooner or later, many experts think, most of us will have careers that involve high technology. Even those who don't design microcircuits or genetically manipulate bacteria will be working with computers or robots in their offices and factories.

For a new type of automation is taking place, one that is expected to change the world employment picture dramatically. Some workers will benefit from the new high- -technology fields, such as computer science. Others will find their jobs eliminated in what some experts think will be widespread unemployment brought about by automation. There will be extensive retraining for entry into new fields or adapting to computers which will become as commonplace as telephones. And job responsibilities and relations between -employers and employees will shift dramatically as a result of high technology, a nebulous term that roughly includes those technical and scientific fields in which advances are occurring rapidly such as computers and telecommunications, genetic engineering and the design of new materials.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the most rapidly growing demand in the United States in the next decade will be for technicians for computer repair. Using what the bureau called assumptions of low growth in the economy, demand for such mechanics was still expected to increase 147 percent from 1978 to 1990, according to a recent bureau Study. ALSO IN THE TOP 10 fast-growing occupations are computer-systems analysts, computer operators, office-machine and cash-register servicers and computer programmers, all of which are projected to increase at least 70 percent over that period. The demand for engineers, particularly in electronics, is also supposed to experience healthy growth. Alan J.

Fechter, head of scientific and technical personnel studies at the National Science Foundation, said engineers would have brighter employment prospects than scientists. Engineers are primarily employed by industry, while scientists more often gravitate to the academic sector, which, Fechter said, is suffering from budgetary woes. However, he added, some science graduates, particularly those in earth sciences, will encounter a healthy demand for their services. FINDING A JOB will not necessarily be easy, though, because enrollments in engineering have swelled. The number of bachelor's degrees in electrical engineering and computer science has grown more than 12 percent a year in the last few years.

The American Electronics Association predicted last year that even that increase in enrollments would fall far short of supplying the needs. But the organization's report has been roundly criticized as overstating the magnitude of the potential shortages. "It didn't use scrupulous scientific sampling methods," said Robert Larson, president of the Institute for Electrical and Electronic Engineers. He and others noted that at the moment there sqemed to be no net shortage of electrical engineers because even typically fast-growing electronics companies have been hit hard by the recession. Patricia Hill Hubbard, vice president of the AEA, defended the study, however, predicting, "When the recovery comes, the problem will be as as IN RECENT MONTHS there have been layoffs of engineers and other white-collar workers at such high-technology companies as Texas Instru-'ments, Honeywell and Xerox.

And any future shortage, they say, depends as much on recovery of the economy as on anything else. Some fear that the engineering job outlook is headed for another oversupply, such as occurred in the early 1970s. Even electrical engineers themselves have a gloomy outlook for their profession, according to an informal and admittedly unscientific poll taken by The Institute, the engineering Organization's newspaper. Some 81 percent of the respondents thought there was no nationwide shortage of engineers in general, and 75 percent said they felt there would not be a shortage. In addition, more than 60 percent of the respondents said that engineers were being underutilized, either because their skills had become obsolete or because they spent much of their time on menial chores such as drawing and photocopying, which could be done by others less skilled.

Thus the outlook for those in the high-technology field is mixed. Many experts, in fact, believe that no matter how fast the new fields grow they will not be able to provide enough jobs to compensate for unemployment caused by automation clsBwhcrSt OTHERS DISAGREE. Neal Rosenthal, chief of the occupational outlook division of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, said he thought the idea that automation would ultimately replace people was "oversold." He said that automation had been occurring for years without any noticeable overall effect on unemployment, and cited numerous historical precedents. Tlinifli'MB CUFFSIDE COMMON 900 Panorama Trail S. 586-0378 Open Fri.

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Mon improve for aid to Associated Press WASHINGTON Savings and loan associations, experiencing their worst financial troubles since the Depression, stand an increasing chance of getting more help from Congress this year, officials in and outside government say. The assistance, though, is not expected to be a cash bailout that would be a financial drain on the deficit-ridden budget And there has been only a little talk of extending the one-year, tax-free all-saver certificates that Congress approved last year to bolster and bank deposits. What help that does come from Congress will likely be in the form of more regulato-. ry relief and paper transactions that would guarantee, or contribute to, an institution's financial soundness. The paper transactions, which are opposed by the Reagan administration, would cost taxpayers only if an institution failed and had to be liquidated.

The Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corp. (FSLIC) has used a similar "capital infusion" approach utilizing non-taxpayer funds to bring off several recent mergers of weak with stronger ones. Despite some regulatory relief and the All-Savers certificates, savings and loan association are still having to pay more for new money than they are taking in from low-yielding home loans agreed on years ago when interest rates were lower. Rep. Fernand St Germain, who is pushing the "net worth guarantee" paper transactions, said in a telephone interview he felt certain that "once various parties realize they've got a horse out in front," they'll "put money on it" But the Reagan administration said last week that St Germain's government bailout fund was not needed.

Insurance funds FSLIC for savings and loans and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. for banks had the resources to handle any problems, the administration St Germain, who is chairman of the House Banking Committee, also is at odds with his counterpart on the Senate Banking Committee, Sen. Jake Garn, R-Utah. Gam and the administration have favored giving the thrift institutions and banks a broad array of new loan and investment powers, among them allowing to make commercial loans and accept corporate demand deposits. St Germain said a plan to give more powers to the thrift institutions would be "very, very controversial" and would immediately spark opposition.

He said his "net worth guarantee" has not aroused strong opposition. The banking and savings and loan industries long-time competitors have found it hard to agree among themselves on what they want from Congress. Nonetheless, sources, who asked not to be identified, said they feel any aid package will ultimately include portions of both approaches: giving savings and loans and commercial banks some of the broader authority they want to compete with money market mutural funds and other institutions, and federal regulators expanded emergency powers to deal with failing thrifts. The "smart money," said one source, is betting on such a package. Even Garn is now considering whether to back a "capital infusion" program, and an announcement is likely later this week, said Senate Banking Committee staff director Dan Wall At House Banking Committee hearings last week Richard Pratt, head of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board and the chief federal regulator, of the argued that "the only lasting cure" for was greater lending and investment powers.

In the short-term, St Germain is offering his plan to give weak and other institutions making home loans "net worth guarantees." Congress would authorize and appropriate $7.5 billion, and certificates would be transferred to weak institutions. None of the $7.5 billion fund would be used unless an institution failed and had to be liquidated. This is a modification of the bill he originally introduced which would have provided cash instead of certificates to bolster the institutions' net worth. The original St Germain bill called for providing assistance when a mortgage lending institution's net worth the excess of its assets or liabilities slipped below 2 percent of its assets. Pratt expressed concern about a provision in the St Germain bill that would require an that got aid to put half of any new deposits into mortgages for family residences.

The interest rate on the mortgages could only be one percentage point above an institution's cost of money. The requirement, Pratt said, "would act as a drag on the ability of thrifts to regain profitability, thus increasing the length of time they would be required to rely on federal assistance." "If assistance for home buyers is regarded by the Congress as desirable, we suggest that a more direct subsidy device be employed, and one that does not have the negative feature of hindering the return to health of the housing sector's primary traditional source of credit," he said. Congress tried to help thrift institutions last year by establishing the tax-free All-Savers certificates. They were expected to increase deposits by $100 billion to $200 billion, most of it going to But as of March 1, the All-Saver ac-' counts had deposits totaling only $21.6 bullion, and most of it represented money transferred from other accounts rather than new deposits. The Reagan administration has already said it will not support renewing the legislation that permitting the tax-free accounts when it expires at the end of this year.

ASSOCIATE DEAN FOR ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT) invites applications for the position of Associate Dean for Administrative Services for the National Technical Institute for the Deaf (NTID). RIT is an independent institution of higher education and enrolls 1 6,500 full and part-time students (1 0,940 FTE) in undergraduate and graduate programs. NTID is one of ten colleges of RIT and is, at the same time, a unique national institution. It is the only place in the world where significant numbers of college-age deaf students attend school in a hearing environment. Qualifications required include preferably an earned doctorate from an accredited university and at least five years of senior-staff-level experience in college administration in areas of financial management, personnel management, planning, information systems and reporting.

Candidates must have ability to communicate with deaf persons or be willing and capable of learning such skills. Applications should be postmarked by the closing date of April 1 5, 1 982. Applicants should send a letter of application, vitae, statement of interest in the position, and the names and addresses and telephone numbers of at least five references. Applications and requests for information should be sent to: mission notes that computerized equipment contains far fewer parts than the electromechanical parts they replace. The Singer company, for instance, makes a sewing machine in which one microprocessor replaces 350 mechanical parts.

The labor required to build it is reduced accordingly. However, the report notes, the increased number of workers involved in development of new products has so far offset that employment trend. Similarly, though there is currently a shortage of computer programmers, programs are now being devised that can help write other programs. Similarly, new computer-aided design systems can speed up the design of microelectronic circuits. The debate over whether automation will destroy jobs is complicated by other factors, such as a nation's balance of trade.

If a country uses automation to lower its product prices, as Japan has done, then the growth in exports can strengthen the economy enough to compensate for losses in employment that automation causes. FOR THAT REASON, many experts expect automation in the United States to proceed quickly, because not to automate might result in an even greater job loss. Others point out that changes in employment brought about by advanced technology will be gradual, leaving time to plan to mitigate any adverse effects. While European nations have looked at the effects of automation on employment and Canada is starting to do so, critics say the United States has failed to consider the issue adequately. "We cannot understand why they're not interested," said Chris A.

Jecchinis, chairman of the economics department at Lakehead University in Ontario, author of the report for the Ontario Manpower Commission. In the meantime, the immediate effect of high technology for most workers will be that they work with computers, not be replaced by them. On the other hand, the new technology has the potential for tying workers to their machines and transferring more power from workers to employers. Employers can monitor how fast typists are typing on a word processor, which they could not do when secretaries used typewriters. Mrs.

Marie L. Raman, Chairperson Associate Dean lor Administrative Services Search Committee College of Science, Building 08 Rochester Institute of Technology One Lomb Memorial Orive PO Box 9887 Rochester, NY 14623 RIT is an Equal Employment Opportunity. Affirmative Action Employer COMPUTER 'Microteens': Computer age whiz kids FROM PAGE 1F many other young people dream about His father and mother formerly a film-company courier and a bank clerk "work here with me, or rather for me," says Bill. Copyright, 1982 Joney magazine. Distributed by Universal Press Syndicate.

i i i i i i i THE EXTRA ADVANTAGE Phil Oliver, a Purdue University dropout from Indianapolis, adapted a simplified computer language called PILOT to home computer use three years ago while teaching his younger brother how to program. The manager of a local Radio Shack outlet was so impressed that he convinced the company to market the product nationally. Since then, Phil has collected $20,000 in royalties. In 1980, he founded the Cornsoft Group to market his software. His two bestsellers are Scarf man, an electronic chase game, and Enhbas (for "enhanced base''), which increases the versatility of Radio Shack's TRS-80 computers.

Cornsoft has grossed $200,000 in the past two years. Now that Phil can work full time for the firm, he expects sales to reach $1 million this year. Bill Hogue, 20, learned programming four years ago while clerking at a Van Nuys (Calif.) Radio Shack. With partner Jeff Konyu, 16, he heads Big Five Software, a two-year-old game company that took in $800,000 last year. Bill devises programs for the games, and Jeff designs the visual effects that appear on computer display screens.

The games sell through a mail-order catalog and computer stores around the country. Bill's business has enabled him to realize a goal DALE CARNEGIE SALES COURSE Organization Selling Confidence Motivating Prospecting Closing Objections Sales Presentation Buying Signals Facts Benefits DALE CARNEGIE COURSE Positive Mental Attitude Communication Talking to Groups Reduce Worry Self -Confidence leadership Skills Memory Understanding Others Enthusiasm Widen Your Horizons The affordable way to enter the exciting world of color computing! Use it for thrill-a-minute games the whole family can enjoy, to keep a household inventory, set up a budget, or as a teaching aid. Easily expandable. Uses Instant-Loading Program Paks Dazzling Entertainment In Color and Sound A Great Way to Learn Programming Attaches to Any TV CLASSES STARTING SOON IN BOTH COURSES SEE IT AT YOUR NEAREST RADIO SHACK STORE, COMPUTER CENTER OR PARTICIPATING DEALER for information or Kteroture CALL NOW 232-2360 A DIVISION OF TANDY CORPORATION pmented by Dak Corng Institute Accredited by Council tor MoKodegxMe Conhwng Edutafcoa PRICES MAY VARY AT INDIVIDUAL STORES AND DEALERS.