The Palm Beach Post from West Palm Beach, Florida • Page 62

(2SS FRIDAY, JUNE 24, 1983 taNV HMV WmP PAGE D11 The Pbst Administration Economist Predicts 'Solid Advance WASHINGTON (AP) Most U.S. industries are beginning to recover from the 1981-82 recession, and though a few trail behind, the overall economy is on the path to "a solid advance" this year, a top Reagan administration economist said yesterday. Commerce Undersecretary Robert Deder-ick made his comments as the department released a mid-year update of its 1983 Industrial Outlook. Since the earlier version was published in late December, the rapid revival of the housing industry has caused department economists to raise their estimates for 1983 residential construction and for related industries such as lumber and furniture production. However, sagging business in construction of office buildings will keep the steel industry's comeback slower than expected.

And the new report said the government's payment-in-kind farm program, which will hold down farm output this year, will be hurting such industries as those that produce agricultural machinery and chemicals. In all, the revised estimates assume national economic expansion of about 2.5-3 percent this year, somewhat less than the 3.7 percent estimated when the original report was issued last December. Dederick and other officials said the figure was lower because the recovery started later than they had predicted, not because the revival was expected to be weaker. In fact, Dederick had said in December that the figures released at that time were probably on the high side. He said yesterday, "The aggregate economy is in a solid advance," with productivity improving and profits apparently rising as well.

"There's no reason not to expect further good gains in the second half of the year." The outlook's overall growth estimate is for inflation-adjusted gross national product for all of 1983 as compared with all of 1982. The administration's official projection puts that in slightly different terms: the change in GNP from the fourth quarter of 1982 to the fourth quarter of 1983. In those terms, the Commerce report is assuming expansion of about 5 percent in 1983, slightly more than the April administration estimate of 4.7 percent. However, other administration officials have said the official projection may need to be raised next month in light of strong recent showings in production, sales and other economic figures. Some highlights of the revised report: The value of housing construction this year should be about 32 percent higher than last year, 13 percent higher than estimated earlier.

The change is primarily due to lower interest rates and a greater availability of loans. Steel shipments likely will rise about 18 percent from 1982 rather than the gain of 25 percent or more expected earlier. Even with the projected recovery, steel plants would be operating at just 65 percent of capacity. The value of shipments by the auto industry should increase about 30 percent, the same as estimated earlier. There should be slightly fewer cars shipped than expected in December, but more of them will be big or more expensive.

111 PI 7 Xi-. 'j'l Mid-June Sales Of Autos Jump 73 7o From '82 1 it. i i i "7 11 WW W14 Toyotn Ordered To Give Up Mst LOS ANGELES (AP) The American sales subsidiary of Toyota Motor Co. has been ordered to give the Internal Revenue Service information about certain prices its parent firm charged car dealers in Japan. According to the IRS, the information is needed to determine the "transfer price" Toyota charged its Torrance sales outlet, Toyota Motor Sales USA Inc.

That price is needed before the IRS can set the U.S. subsidiary's tax liability for the years 1975-78, according to the agency. Despite Japanese government objections, U.S. District Judge Cynthia Holcomb Hall yesterday ordered Toyota to comply. A Justice Department spokesman called the ruling "significant," and a Toyota spokesman said the company is studying the decision and considers it "inappropriate to comment at this point." DETROIT (AP) New car sales in mid-June skyrocketed 73.1 percent ahead of depressed year-ago fjgures, rising to their best rate for the period since the prerecession days of 1979, automakers said yesterday.

The six major U.S. automakers reported 205.444 cars sold from June 11-20 compared with 118,695 in mid-June 1982. "It now assures the fact that we're on a roll," auto industry analyst Arvid Jouppi of Detroit said. Mid-June's daily sales rate of 25,680 was the best for the period since 28,188 cars were sold each day in mid-June 1979. Each of the Big Three automakers plus American Motors Corp.

showed increases of more than 60 percent. However, Jouppi said the percentages are misleading because sales last June were depressed as automakers removed promotions and raised some prices to see if consumers still would buy. The companies later reinstated incentives. Jouppi attributed this year's gain to lower interest rates, a lack of price increases and the large numbers of aging cars being used. Considering the increase in annual terms, mid-June sales surpassed an 8.2 million rate, Jouppi said.

The last time that happened was in January 1980 when sales were in the midst of the slide that began in spring 1979. In contrast, domestic automakers last year sold just 5.75 million cars, the worst sales performance in the past 21 years. Specifically in mid-June, General Motors Corp. was up 77.6 percent, from 68,498 to 121,629. Ford Motor Co.

sales improved 60 8 percent, from 30,781 to 49,502. Chrysler Corp. posted a 77.1 percent gain, from 14,734 to 26,091. American Motors reported an estimated 78 percent increase, from 2,500 to 4,450. Volkswagen of America Inc.

posted a 2.9 percent gain, from 2,182 to 2,245. Honda of America Man- 7 Staff Phot by fatKt Cailint Joan Connors (left), Janis Nail (standing) are nutritionists; Linda Dawson is a program coordinator Program Promotes Profit With Health ufacturing Co. Inc. sold 1,527 cars. Honda did not build cars in the U.S.

a year ago. So far this year, the six automakers' sales are up 11 percent from 1982 levels, or 3,082,509 compared with 2,775,737. GM's year-to-date sales total is 1.854.035, an 8 5 percent gain over last year's 1,709,444. Ford has improved 4 9 percent, from 651,412 to 683,520. Chrysler is up 215 percent, from 329,492 to 400,323.

American Motors sales have climbed 115 5 percent, from 43,118 to 92,904. Volkswagen is off 12 5 percent, from 42,271 to 36,969 Honda's total is 14,758. UAW Denounces Overtime Plan By Linda Duffy Staff Wrlttr Have you been feeling undervalued at work? Been feeling your employer couldn't care less about you? It's probably normal. Most employers are responsible, you know, for your seizures of existential dispensability. They don't intend to personally demean you, it's just that if the employer reduces your sense of worth just a little bit, he probably can get away with paying you less in take-home pay and benefits.

So he thinks. But the fact is, if you are a good employee, your loss to a company is not without consequence and it hits most employers right where they breathe in their wallets. Every year, for example, premature deaths cost American industry more than $25 million and 132 million workdays of lost time. Heart disease alone accounts for 52 million of the lost days. The common backache, so ignored and often the result of neglected muscles, accounts for $1 billion in lost output plus a quarter of that amount in workmen's compensation claims.

Futhermore, people slopping around in poor condition are ill more often and recover more slowly than their strapping counterparts, and chronic fatigue increases the risk of accidents. As bellies and health sag, so do efficiency, productivity and profits. Considering those dire statistics, even the stingiest employer can see healthy workers are an integral part of healthy company finances. Joan Connors, public health nutritionist with the Palm Beach County health department, would like the newly enlightened employers to take advantage of HEALTH PLUS, a program designed for businesses to promote employees' personal wellness. "We usually go to a meeting room in the company where we hold six, very intensive, two-hour sessions.

We assist the participants in identifying their own personal health problems, with the emphasis on educating the employee in ways he can increase wellness," Mrs. Connors said. "We have workshops in relaxation, exercise and nutrition." The responsibility for staying well is on the individual, but HEALTH PLUS shows each person the tools for doing this. For example, participants are alerted to monitor their activities and calories, and stress-releasing techniques are taught. The program uses a computer-analyzed health hazard appraisal that, based on answers to questions of lifestyle, mood, behavior, family history and current health habits, projects the participant's health problems during the next 10 to 40 years.

Participants also are given the option of having a blood chemistry test which measures cholesterol, blood sugar, iron content and other components. This test, Mrs. Connors said, would cost about $130 at a lab, but is only $15 when done through the program. In addition, Mrs. Connors and health educators Linda Dawson and Janis Nail will explain all the details on the blood work-up and show the victim, er, employee how to maintain normal levels through a proper diet.

"People are encouraged to make changes in their lifestyles," Mrs. Connors said. "We get them to make a contract with goals and then we come back every three months with blood pressure tests and weigh-ins. The program, which costs employers J60 per participant, already has been conducted at Bankers Land Investment Company and will start at IBM in July. For more information, contact Mrs.

Connors at the health department at 837-3098. "This program is a way for employers to show that they care." reported yesterday that they have 204,100 workers on indefinite layoff this week. Company officials have said they do not anticipate call-backs to match projected production increases. The anion's International Executive Board authorized union officers dealing with the automakers "to oppose the use of overtime in lieu of recalls, and to fight for that position in future discussions with corporate management," Bieber said. DETROIT (AP) United Auto Workers union President Owen Bieber denounced reported plans yesterday that automakers might increase production by scheduling overtime instead of calling back laid-off workers.

"With more than 200,000 members still on indefinite layoff from the five major U.S. auto companies, it is irresponsible for management to utilize overtime in place of increasing the work force," Bieber said. The five major domestic carmakers Threat of Interest Rise Causes Stocks To Sli 'The economy has been very hard on us. A lot of stores are suffering; a lot of people are suffering. We're trying to look forward.

You can 't predict the future, but you can do some things to control the future. Don Fountain, on closing of Lake Park, Fort Pierce stores Fountains Agonized Over Closing Stores Jim 23. 1983 Stock Market Report nlmne it atilllM Denny's Expands in S. Florida ft Nw Yard Timai NEW YORK Stock prices fell moderately yesterday in slower trading as renewed concern over the possibility of rising interest rates weakened the list. The Dow Jones industrial average, which was in the loss column throughout the session, closed off 3 90 points to 1,241.79.

In the general market, declining stocks on the New York Stock Exchange out-scored issues that rose 942-625. The two other pivotal indicators, which made new closing highs on Wednesday, also ended lower. The exchange's composite index of 1,500 common stocks fell 0 18, to 98.83, while Standard Poor's 500- can Express. Turnover on the Big Board dropped to 89.6 million shares from 1 10.3 million shares the day before as institutional participation slackened. Gulf Western topped the most active list and eased '4 of a point to 29 V4 on a turnover of 3.3 million shares, including a block 3.1 million shares at 29 shortly before the close.

Some of the technology issues registered impressive gains. Texas Instruments climbed 4Vi to 1224, Tandy added 2 Va to 52, Prime Computer was up 1 to 23, Motorola, 3, to 137 and Hewlett-Packard, 3, to 95 Va. 34 1 NYSE mi ur MM 41109 170 57 174171 -4? -190, Pot Staff and Wlra Rafwrn Denny's Inc. has announced a major expansion program in South Florida. Most of the new restaurants are appearing in Palm Beach, Broward and Dade counties, but also as far north as Vero Beach and as far south as Naranja Lakes, according to the company, which has headquarters in La Mirada, Calif.

Most of the expansion involves the conversion of 19 closed Sambo's restaurants, a former Wolfie's restaurant in Miami Beach and a closed Anyway's restaurant in Coral Gables. The Wolfie's and Anyway's conversions were finished in April, according to Denny's. The first of the former Sambo's units opened as Denny's in Vero Beach and Miami in early May. The company expects the conversion program to be completed in the fall. Texas Gas, CSX Merger Set? Coastal Corp.

dropped out of the billion-dollar bidding for Texas Gas Resources Corp. yesterday, opening the way for Texas Gas to merge with CSX Corp. CSX, owner of the nation's largest rail system, reported it was pleased with Coastal's decision and that it would begin buying Texas Gas stock at midnight next Wednesday. That is the deadline for Texas Gas shareholders to withdraw any stock they submit to CSX under terms the rail company's $1.07 billion cash off. By Linda Duffy Staff Wrlttr The decision to close two of the seven outlets in the Fountain's department store chain was done after weeks of family agonizing, said Don Fountain, son of the founder of the 44-year-old business.

The stores to be closed, in Fort Pierce and Lake Park, are the two smallest stores in the chain. The Fort Pierce store is about 10 years old; the Lake Park store, in the Twin City Mall, is 21 years old. Five other stores will remain open. "The economy has been very hard on us," Fountain said. "A lot of stores are suffering; a lot of people are suffering.

We're trying to look forward. You can't predict the future, but you can do some things to control the future. We knew we had to pare down and reduce inventory as quickly as possible, and we realized that the most profitable thing would be to close those stores." Fountains is running the heavily discounted sales in all seven stores, and as the inventory is reduced over the next few weeks, a marketing strategy for consolidation will emerge. Fountain blames changing shopping habits for his stores' poor financial showing. "With more women working now, there's not as much time for shopping as there used to be," he said.

"When my father opened the first store in Lake Worth back in 1939, people used to come in and buy new wardrobes each season. "Now, people buy a piece at a time they add to their wardbrobes rather than replace them. And they're always shopping for price, looking for a better buy. I understand it because I do the same thing. The goal of our store was always to be a friend to the customer.

And I believe we've always done that." The auto issues finished mixed despite the news that their mid-June sales rose 73 percent from the same period last year. Cessna Aircraft rose 1 to 29 after gaining 3V points on Wednesday. The firm is negotiating the sale of 30 of its new single-engine turboprop utility aircraft. Metromedia, the highest-priced issue on the exchange, climbed 6 to 554. On Wednesday, the owner of television and radio stations, an- -nounced a co-production agreement with Home Box Office whereby Metromedia would buy premiere films made or commissioned by HBO.

On the American Stock Exchange, the market-value index fell 2.34 to 488 09. MacAndrews Forbes rose 3 to 50 Va after CPI Corp. said it completed the purchase of nine mini-labs from TeOhnicolor a anit of MacAndrews. stock index lost 0 42, to 170 57. Analysts said that many investors are apprehensive that the Treasury's huge borrowing needs plus the increasing demand for credit by business as the economy continues to surge may soon drive interest rates higher.

In midafternoon yesterday, the Treasury announced a record budget deficit in May of $29.3 billion. The administration is forecasting a deficit of more than $210 billion this year. Since the stock market rally began in mid-August, the Dow average has soared more than 460 points primarily because of declining interest rates and an improving economy. 'The market's weakness today, after its long advance, is only a minor adjustment before it resumes its upward course which should continue throughout most of the summer," said Mark Stahl, senior vice president of Shearson-Ameri.