The Palm Beach Post from West Palm Beach, Florida on March 28, 1998 · Page 121
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March 28, 1998

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The Palm Beach Post from West Palm Beach, Florida · Page 121

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Saturday, March 28, 1998
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THE PALM BEACH POST SATURDAY, MARCH 28, 1998 215 c hn N G THIS WELC Constitution probably protects Ladies in error Tl .. . I I J Columnist Charles Jaffe shows you how to make a million dollars with good investments. In Thursday's 'YOUR MONEY' section In 77e Palm Beach Post Big returns not always what they seem subtracting losers from winners, adjusting for how long the money was invested and figuring compound average returns. We don't know how well (or poorly) we've performed, compared with the whole market By forming an investment club, under the auspices of the National Association of Investment Companies, the Ladies created a pleasant environment for learning about investments. But you learn much less if you don't have a clue how well your stocks have really done. NAIC software provides a rough performance number. But it's not exact There's no adjustment for how long your money was invested, says NAIC president Kenneth Janke. To get a better picture, clubs should submit a model portfolio to NAIC, Janke says. A different computer program will show that portfolio's actual returns, compared with the market The Ladies never did this, hence never learned how mediocre their stock picking was. That hasn't stopped their speechmaking. They're pointing now to their one big year (up 54.4 percent in 1991). But that was luck. Most of their other years were grim. The Ladies say they're "terribly sorry for the error." But let's face it: They wouldn't be famous if they hadn't been confused about their investment returns. "How We Picked Underperforming Stocks" isn't much of a sell. I'm sure they meant well. But I'm waiting for the name of that charity. Columnist Susan Antilla is on vacation. QUINN from 2S Waterhouse. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 average was rising a fat 14.6 percent. Price Waterhouse partner Karen Vincent, who did the audit, says she wasn't asked to check what the Ladies would have earned if they'd hypothetically put their money into the S&P 500, rather than into the stocks they picked. So the S&P comparison isn't exact No matter how you count, however, the Ladies missed the market average by a mile. "If I had put out such misleading figures, the Securities and Exchange Commission would be all over me," said one bemused mutual-fund manager. "I could have gone to jail." The Beardstown Ladies aren't in any jeopardy (although their reputations may be) . Wrong or misleading stuff in investment books and speeches is generally protected by the First Amendment Whaf s more, the Ladies say, it was an innocent mistake. Treasurer Betty Sinnock made a computer error when she figured the club's returns. For them, a super-lucky error. America drew the club into its national fantasy of unearned wealth. Here was a group of friendly, small-town, churchgoing ladies from the Midwest If they learned how to beat the market anybody could. In truth, it's hard even for professionals to beat the market year after year, let alone a start-up neighborhood group. Amateur stock-pickers rarely track investments the way the professionals do by they work, you could be headed for trouble. This happens all the time to people who chase hot investments. Lured by a big run-up in a stock or mutual fund, they buy at the peak and brag about the investment they made, even as things cool off. All too often, I hear from people with Eortfolios filled with fallen angels, former igh-flyers that have crashed. A fund may have a great 10-year history, but if it has lagged the market for the past five years, you shouldn't be thrilled with it If you don't understand the numbers or how they are presented, find someone who does to explain it fully. B Fail victim to wen-packaged hype. Some of the most brilliant managers I know have a hard time explaining their strategy, but plenty of ordinary managers can sweet-talk their way to prominence. That of course, is what the Beardstown Ladies did. I'm sure some investment club really did earn a 23.4 percent return from 1984 to 1993, the members just didn't write a book. Make mistakes. Investing is more about being persistent than perfect. The key is to learn from your mistakes and keep going ; forward. Charles A Jaffe is personal finance columnist or The Boston Globe. He can be reached by e-mail at jaffeglobe.com or at The Boston Giobe, Box 2378, Boston, Mass., 02107-2378. When someone is on a hot streak, we are told, "If they can do it, you can, too." When things go awry, it's, "This could happen to you." And when it goes both ways, it's the Beardstown Ladies Club, the ultimate "they" who supposedly did it with their little Illinois investment club. While everyone else was searching for a way to dial up big returns, the ladies of the club reported market-topping gains of 23.4 percent in the decade before they were the subject of a bestselling book that held them up as role models for the rest of us. Now, the matronly gang of Warren Buffett wannabes is owning up to the fact that their promotional skills were better than their accounting abilities, and that their little investment circle really gained just 9.1 percent during the 10 years that spawned their first bestseller. Oops. Yes, you can do that too, which may be the greatest lesson the Beardstown Ladies teach anyone. Last week, they acknowledged that the 23.4 percent return, the foundation for all of their success, applied only to 1991-92. Instead of beating the market by about 50 percent as advertised, they had lagged it by about 40 percent and are "just really, really sorry." Sloppy bookkeeping, yes. Willful deceit no. Willing to live in blissful . ignorance, absolutely. The Ladies would like you to believe it was a simple math mistake, the kind of error that "could happen to you." But in Charles A. Jaffe their sudden change of image from homespun geniuses to mediocre money managers, the Ladies did the rest of us a favor. They are living proof that you can do it, too, both the good and the bad. As shown by the Beardstown Ladies, when it comes to investing, you can: Be satisfied with a return that does not beat the market It won't make for a great book, Our Years Being Beaten by the Market but one thing most people forget is that your happiness with an investment should lie with whether it is helping you reach your monetary goals, not whether it is keeping pace with a broad indicator. The Beardstown Ladies took a very safe investment strategy and earned 9.1 percent a year without much volatility. The club's return for its entire 14-year existence, according to the accountant is more than 15 percent a year. A whole lot of people would like to do that. 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SlB741n TiFMt That Far Cnd Uat FLMunll Rat: mc aa .a 41 .111 as GR 159 41 .114.1220 sc aa .a 4t .ho N 41 461 .11 411 .11 2340 41 .711 GT 1264 .41 .14 HM MS -44 MG M9 -a .1 UT 1744 -a 41 ti 11 BIO 14 43A IB -41 ia -a GSP MSP -s j -a a 44 - -4 -H 44 -47 .7 GM 137 -02 .7 450C MC H .15 41 44 46 OO SC Mil .a 24 41 4H LoCoGiD LgColMa LaAnara UtfTwiTFa MAUTPa MATia USGaSI UMBi I I 424 7 NA 42 .76 Of 4 4400 45 40 It 47 4640 171 461 -M .3 40 45 - S a 44 76 .71 .77 44 - 44 41 4.1 -72 112 44 .02 -1 .14 44 -41 44 .17 .71 . .1 - 1 -41 -41 -41 -1 a 44 - -4 -41 -I . 27 .14 . 45 .12 44 -a -1 .a 41 i GT 101 SS 1174 OR 1124 LO 171 a i7a hc n a i 22a At 13 HMana Ma MgrMia Spnia Saartana Vnana Oaama Ooaaia LO W 04 - 145 440 14 SSA C' GR 1757 -11 44 St 1042 -Of 1 0vSc8 Gntt Harctk MM I .04 44 41 4325 a 41 .154 461 or am a aa GR S12 ..a 41 .124 M41 K SE 07 . .14 .11 432 .47 44 -.11 -1 -a 41 -17 .2 mc 4125 .a 45 .141 .mi gr aa .a 41 ui .1174 e raj .a 42 .wt 4i2 mm n a -41 .4 .14 415 WCl EnCI EanCt HVMuCt 4 43.KA a a a -41 4t .wi.iai 154 NS At 1341 1 S2S2 m wt4 Gfl 1) Gfl 2995 LT 27a SM UU SM Hit SS 1434 a ii a GM I K sc aa SS 1127 SS 1351 ss ni PR 11 B a 13 a GR 14 54 Si wa sc sa a ni GR H97 SC IK ijUpei gi ua IL S41 At 4044 B aa WIS a wa 74 19 74 II 14 11 .100 .110.1136C . 10 2.120 C 45 46 HA .4 .176 6 .171 .11 45 OM 4 42' 4 459 74 NS 4 45 SC 4 453 t 44a H4 -122 .71 NS 44 MS .4 4D0 47 as .11 492 iit.ia i -04 47 -a 10 44 -44 .17 -11 -4 MdCp NTTia OHTta .74 NS 4 43 10 Graa G na 45 .114 CteEga OSiOvn FMASnCga 1 EmgGea 4 M -a. 41 44 44 KM .24 41 10a 24 47 H47 .a 41 PA lata PacOma CMEtxa CMSCa t 1 31417 41 174 OR4239 -B 45 H7 OR 10525 41 44 117 MC1 4a 41 .145 SS ail -41 1 4 st) aa .ti .4 44 ai UT -H .71 .7t 411 MP r 55 -a 41 44 45tC or aa .a 45 .ri7.Mi2 At 1122 -g .1 .17 41 IA EM HI H 71 .17 NA OR M 7? -a 41 .Kll.tOSaC El 13a -II 47 .MS .1112 SC WI7 a 47 42.123 M a aa 42 41 1711 sc aa a 41 4i.ias 1 na .a 41 124 xs OR a 47 42 157 an t 12a .a 47 .at atl SC KB 17 47 42 NS SC 1' IS 42 ri4 .IX 5 tc aa .a 47 .01 4.40 or 1491 .a 41 .wi .mi a ni . 44 47 .721 It 4440 4 NA 4 4150 44 46 l at 4i5( 44 4l4f -a .i -47 .1 -a .1 -a 45 .a 44 -a 44 Amaa Aaaaca Casta &9BU rinala SXoWa TY CP Mir 4J 110 464( ss in -4i i sc aa 4i GM 441 -a -1 4 45 4 auDaa Ikxratga axSxCaa RnfinCi trfofaa aVOMia tntaa Mgfinl OR ISIS MuGvflk MG 1274 MuMJH GM 1413 MmwCIl GM 17a MiMIi SS 13 a nm ss na PaaTfltl a 837 swat sc a ti utaa ut aa AgOCt CP 42 4i tavCi OR 1511 DwcCl OT ta MMC OR tIM nnc HC tia tataCi 1 ca Nttoc or a MoMlCl gm an PaaTRCa a CI -m 44 I .41 EaK Oa5ta -I 40 s EM 159 -a -4 a 47 149 T4M i 2o m a Ttt At 704 - -I .4 430 GR 144 -a 44 .134.131 47 14 41 .1H3 MotCmn SC 1025 .03 49 40 4340 Pntti SC 149 .(X 44 46 .76 it Pimm SC 941 .07 49 46 7340 MM SC 791 .01 4.2 4J 414 "Jcm" 0r'w St -M 4.1 14 45 1C PN4fm PfnrjK Ini CP S67 -IS 47 .HO 7 OltFtm CP 27 .102 .14 421 174T IMa CP 417 .02 -31 -J -461 AFtXOPw: "Slf Jl.-i1 .26 .u'.WIKA Twm. 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