Arizona Republic from Phoenix, Arizona • Page 3

A4 The Arizona Republic Sunday, March 8, i992 CAMPAIGN ON TRAIL Bosh, Clietoe are favored to win big in Teesday voltes The Atsoclatad Pr Bush wants to sing 'Bye, Bye Buchanan' By Bill Hart The Arizona RapubUc Yes, it will be April Fool's Day, but this April 1 has been pegged by some as the deadline for Patrick Buchanan to withdraw gracefully from the campaign or else. President Bush's camp is said to be "increasingly concerned" about the effects in the general election of Buchanan current attacks. A Bush aide told The Boston Globe that if Buchanan hasn't dropped out by April 1, "Republican leaders will warn him that they will do everything in their power to deny him what they now think he really wants: a shot to run" in 1996. Fred Barnes of The New Republic says the deadline could come this week. He said the Bushies expect Buchanan to win no "Super Tuesday primaries and will muster Republicans, especially conservatives on March 1 1 to proclaim noisily that it's time for Buchanan to drop out." On Friday, however, a defiant Buchanan vowed to run until the last set of primaries on June 2, which include the delegate-ncb state of California, where Bush is weak.

Syndicated columnist bandy Grady is not sympathetic about the Republicans squabbling: He says Buchanan is George Stephanopoulos said, "it puts Paul Tsongas on the ropes." Tsongas all but conceded defeat in the Southern states outside Florida on Friday when he decided not to return to any of them before the voting, except to stop in Tennessee today. He is expected to pick up some delegates. Clinton barnstormed the South, reaching out for black support and criticizing Tsongas' plan to cut Social Security cost-of-living benefits. Republicans hold primaries in the same eight states as the Democrats, but because their delegate rules are different. Bush may claim almost all of the delegates.

In Florida, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Oklahoma, a candidate winning each congressional district wins all of the delegates in the state 323 for the five. Bush campaign adviser Charlie Black predicted that Bush will pull ofT such a sweep, and the Buchanan camp did not dispute that. Buchanan has invested most heavily in Mississippi and Louisiana, where state Republican Party Chairman William Nungesser has endorsed him. Duke is not expected to do well, analysts say, and Buchanan is trying to siphon votes from Duke. The other 98 GOP delegates will be awarded from Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Tennessee, based on a candidate's share of the vote.

Bush is expected to win 60 or more delegates, leaving Buchanan in the dust. President Bush is poised for a hugely successful "Super Tuesday" in the Southern primaries, according to a survey by The Associated Press. For the Democrats, Bill Clinton looks like a big winner, with Paul Tsongas able to claim a share of delegates and the two men battling hard in Florida. Bush is. favored to sweep the eight Republican primaries this week, according to the survey.

His delegate harvest could reach a remarkable 90 percent of the '421 available, even if rival Patrick Buchanan won 30 percent or more of the vote, as he has in earlier primaries in other states. "Super Tuesday, big, big," Bush said Saturday as he ended a trip to trim support for Buchanan and David Duke, a former Ku Klux Klun leader who is on the ballot in seven of the eight states. Among the Democrats, Florida has emerged as a pivotal state Tsongas' only chance to avert a Southern rout that could damage his candidacy. Clinton has campaigned against a suggestion in Tsongas' economic plan that the Social Security cost-of-living increases be curtailed. Tsongas, trailing in the polls, attacked Clinton on Friday as a "pander bear" who would say anything to be elected.

Clinton, the governor of Arkansas, is the clear favorite to win primaries in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Tennessee, as well as caucuses in Missouri, and claim a majority of 783 delegates at stake Tuesday. Tsongas, a former U.S. senator from Massachusetts, is favored to win there and in Rhode Island. Democrats also will hold caucuses in Hawaii and Delaware, but those have drawn little attention. Former California Gov.

Jerry Brown is not likely to add to his Colorado win of last week, according to the poll. That also goes for Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, whose candidacy has been struggling. A few of the tactics: Clinton's easiest state should be Oklahoma, where Tsongas did not make the ballot. Clinton hopes to take Tsongas in Rhode Island.

In Mississippi, Brown is airing his first 30-second campaign commercial of the year. It shows him holding a dying person in India, where he worked for a time alongside Mother Teresa to help the poor. Tsongas earlier sent organizers into Missouri in hopes of winning a substantial delegate share there. Bush is airing Spanish-language radio commercials in Florida in a drive for the Hispanic vote. As the race intensifies, the two main Democratic rivals have sought to define the importance of Super Tuesday in ways that play to their strength.

For Tsongas, that meant minimizing Clinton's expected strong showing and looking ahead to Illinois and Michigan, which vote next week. One Tsongas aide, requesting anonymity, surveyed the contests in seven Southern and border states grimly. "We just want to get out of there without getting murdered and pick up some delegates," he said. Clinton hopes to sweep the South. If Clinton does that, deputy campaign manager doing to Bush exactly what Bush did to (Michael) Dukakis.

That knock on the door, George, is the monster you invented." IF ONE DOESNT GET YOU. GOP strategist Roger Ailes also believes that Patrick Buchanan's days are numbered. The media taken it very easy on Buchanan because he's the best weapon the liberals have against George Bush," Ailes said. "Pretty soon, the media will move in and kill Buchanan. -kit-kiririririr ir ON TO CHICAGOI So you thought the New Hampshire primary was a big deal? "Super Tuesday 7 Prognosticate again, please.

-Illinois, whose primary is March 17, "comes closest of all the megastates to matching the nation economically, racially, -ethnically and culturally," according to U.S. News A World fieport. I he magazine notes that Illinois, with 164 Democratic-delegates and 85 Republican delegates, clinched nominations for Jinyny Carter and Ronald Reagan in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984. Illinois virtually' tied up the nomination for George Bush in 1988. Further, the- magazine claims that Illinois is "a more open environment" this year because of weaker party machines, reduced racial hostility and the passing of the old rule of reverence for incumbents witness House Ways nd Means Chairman' and Beltway Overlord Dan Rostenkowskl campaigning hard for the first time in 34 years." -V PUT UP YOUR DUKES If Paul Tsongas wins the Democratic will George Bush try to stick him with the dreaded Wimp label on foreign policy? True, Bush himself used to be haunted by the specter of Wimpdom.

But that's presumably behind him now, since the J. Persian Gulf war and because Arnold Schwarzenegger is campaigning for him again. But -Tsongas, while in the Senate, was a strong opponent of Ronald Reagan's Central American policy and a supporter of aid to Sandinista government. He also was against "Star Wars Reagan's defense buildup and the Grenada invasion, and once said that Cuba's Fidel Castro had stayed in power because "we gave him no choice but to turn to the Soviets." told New Republic, "I am not an attacker. I a counterpuncher.

Time to warm up, Paul. a- -a- it -tt A WOMAN SCORNED, FORGOTTEN "Where has Gennifer Flowers. Suzanne Garment asks in 77e Wall Street Journal. It was only about a month ago that Flowers told the world of an alleged 12-year "affair wtlh Bill CHiIton. Has the whole thing faded so quickly because the media truly have decided to treat politicians r.

persoiiaT.scandalsvwitB.THore restraint? "Maybe, but donT bet otL JtT Garment says. Instead, she opines, it's largely because so many media types are themselves adulterous, draft-dodging leftists, like Clinton's etractors say he is. Well, maybe Garment doesn't quite go that far. But she does posit a great deal of sympathy for Clinton among media, mates; haven't media females rushed to Flowers' banner? Two words: Hillary Clinton whom Garment calls "the very model of the ZLZJ-l-'- Garry PateThe Associated fVM- David Duke stumps for support after a rally in Spartanburg, S.C. The former Ku Klux Klan leader took 7 percent of the vote in South Carolina's primary Bush, Clinton win So CaiMina; 'S, well-educated, liberated socially aware professional woman." 4- -A- ft it WHAT, NO PORK RINDS? And what about when the media "(thankfully) go away? Curtains are drawn, door locked.

The candidate kicks off his shoes and settles in for some sinful pleasure with his favorite snack. What snack? The relentless Associated Press asked the White House wannabes that very question. Jerry Brown said apples; Bill Clinton, bananas. Tom Harkin veered sharply off the health-food track with Peanut Paul Tsongas why- are we not surprised? said Smartfood Popcorn. Patrick Buchanan bellowed: Cheetos.

David Duke said simply, popcorn. George Bush? The AP said the president "had "declined to participate." Gee, it's true: That guy won't a stand on anything. Contributing to this article were wire-service reports and other sources. According fo CBS, more than half of the voters who backed Buchanan said they did so to send Bush a message, as did three-quarters of the Duke voters. Compiled from reports by The Associated Press, Boston Globe, Scripps Howard and Reuters.

SOUTH CAROLINA RESULTS Unofficial returns from Saturday's Democratic and Republican primaries Democratic primary 1,604 of 1,844 precincts reporting Candidate Votes Pet. Bill Clinton 70,428 66 Paul Tsongas 18,085 17 Jerry Brown 6,089 6 Tom Harkin 6,022 6 Other 3,140 3 Uncommitted 3,123 3 Republican primary 1,631 of 1,844 precincts reporting Candidate Vote Pet-George Bush 88,902 67 Pat Buchanan 34,493 26 David Duke 9,031 7." Other 445 0 campaign stop in the state and fighting the negative impression among voters in South Carolina that comes with being a Massachusetts Democrat. Some analysts said that if the Georgia primary last week and the South Carolina primary Saturday are a sign of things to come, Clinton could, indeed, sweep the region on Super Tuesday and move toward the potentially decisive primaries in Michigan and Illinois later this month in a strong position. Seven of the 11 contests on Super Tuesday, when Massachusetts and Rhode Island also hold their votes, are in Southern or border states. Clinton was pleased with his day's work.

"It'll be a nice boost going into Super Tuesday," he said as he headed for Missouri, one of the 11 states that ote this week, Low turnout likely in state for Democratic caucuses GET THE SCOOP ON ELECTION RESULTS BUSH, CLINTON from page A 1 week. Michael Graham, Buchanan's state coordinator, said, "If 66 percent is the best George Bush can do in his best state in the country, he's got big trouble. We're thrilled." With all of the votes counted in the Democratic caucuses in Wyoming, Clinton took 28 percent of the vote, to 23 percent for former Gov. Jerry Brown of California, 14 percent for Sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa and 12 percent for former Sen.

Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts; 22 percent of those participating cast ballots for "uncommitted." There were 13 delegates up for grabs in the Wyoming Democratic caucuses. Republicans did not hold caucuses Saturday. In South Carolina, with 87 percent of the vote counted, Clinton had 66 percent to Tsongas' 1 7 percent, with 6 percent each for Brown and Harkin, and the rest of the vote to minor candidates. With 88 percent of the Republican vote in, Bush was drawing 67 percent to Buchanan's 26 percent. David Duke, a former Ku Klux Klan leader, had 7 percent in the first state in which he appeared on the ballot this year.

There were 43 Democratic and 36 Republican delegates at stake in South Carolina. Clinton and Bush hoped the South Carolina voting would give them the momentum heading into the Super Tuesday contests in three days when the single largest day of voting during the primaries takes place. Although the South Carolina vote appeared to indicate Bush easily beat Buchanan and former Duke, network exit polls revealed a different story: Half of Buchanan's voters and three-quarters of Duke's voters said they were voting against Bush "to send a message. PressLine, 271 -5656 WYOMING RESULTS Unofficial returns from Saturday's Democratic caucuses (Republicans did not hold caucuses). Democratic caucuses 23 of 23 precincts reporting For the latest results on the primaries, call PressLine and then press 4455.

Candidate Votes Pet. Bill Clinton 78 28 Jerry Brown 63 23 Tom Harkin 39 14 Paul Tsongas 32 12 Mario Cuomo 1 0 Uncommitted 61 22 pist from Fountain Hills said she; switched from independent to Demo-1 crat to "voice my opinion," but said she probably would switch back after; the caucus. At a union hall at 5808 N. Seventh St. in District 25, 352 ballots were cast in the first four hours.

Frank Sacco, district chairman, said campaign appearances in Arizona by the' candidates heightened voter interest. About 30 people registered Democrat, most of them switches from the Republican Party, Sacco said. But in District 23, a Democratic stronghold, voting was fairly slow at Friendly House, 802 S. First with 163 having cast ballots in the first five hours, according to Joe Delia Rocca, district chairman. He said a few voters wanted to know how to write in the name of New York Gov.

Mario Cuomo, who is not an announced candidate. "One man who was switching from Republican to Democrat said he could not stand four more years of King George III," Delia Rocca said, I referring to President Bush. Because there were fewer polling' places in the Democrat-run some people complained that they had' to drive too far to get to them. But one Sun City woman did not, mind. She reportedly refused to vote; in a Sun City funeral home, for' personal reasons, and drove at least 10 miles to another of the District 15 polling places in Tolleson.

LOW, from page Al and Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin not far behind. Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey dropped out of the race Thursday. The caucuses also began a three-tier process of electing delegates to the Democratic National Convention, to be held July 13-16 in New York City.

Voters on Saturday were choosing 500 delegates, parceled out on the basis of the vote each presidential candidate received, to attend five regional caucuses scheduled for April 25 in Phoenix and Tucson. The final selection of the 47 national delegates will occur at a party state convention May 2 in Phoenix. Arizona Republicans will choose their 37-member delegation to the August national GOP convention in Houston at a state meeting May 30 in Phoenix. Saturday's Democratic voting took place in 106 polling places in the state. The biggest question, besides who was going to win, was, "Where do I vote?" Because polling places were not the usual ones used in regular elections, many Democrats were confused.

State Democratic headquarters reported receiving about 3,000 telephone calls by midafternoon. Nearly all were from -people who did not know where their polling place was, Jackson said. El Mirage reported that 300 had voted by noon; voters were lined up outside a polling place in Benson For -the Arkansas governor, the victory in Wyoming was first -evidence to back his claim that he's not a regional candidate but a Democrat with national credentials. Clinton credited a strong campaign -organization for his Wyoming victory. Asked whether his regional-candidate tag was now gone, he said, "I guess it is, and I was just beginning to like it." struggling to keep his faltering' going, had hoped to gain percent of the South Carolina crucial figure because it would extend his entitlement to federal matching funds.

He had tried to' make inroads with black voters 'about third of the Democratic electorate but --was getting only abouClS'percenlof what local officials said was a small turnout among voters. Clinton vas getting 75 percent cX-tte black-Vote, according to network exit polli- Exit interviews- TOhductedTothe networks delivered messages to go with the numbers, among them: ABC said 37 percent of the Republican voters surveyed disapproved of the way Bush is doing his job, and 34 percent were upset that he reneged on his 1988 pledge against new federal taxes. waiting for it to open at 10 a.m.; and Pima County reported 1,500 conver- sions from Republican to Democrat, Jackson said. Unlike in a regular election, Ari-zonans can register to vote on the day of balloting in presidential caucuses. At Mustang Library, 10101 N.

90th Scottsdale, more than 300 people had voted in the first 3Vi hours, despite the fact that it is a heavily Republican area, according to Sam Marshall, a volunteer. Of that total, 32 registered as Democrats on the spot, said Carolyn Maxon, District 28 Democratic chairwoman. One of those -who re-registered there, a 38-year-old Scottsdale woman who did not want to give her name, said she generally registers with no party affiliation, but signed up as a Democrat to express her preference. And a 42-year-old massage thera besting the 30 percent figure was -certain to provide continuing irritation for the president even though Buchanan outspent Bush on TV ads in South Carolina. GOP consultant Eddie Malie said, again, we are seeing that about one Republican voter in three is saying, 'Mr.

President, we are Democrat Clinton had been heavily favored in South Carolina as he is in most Southern states. Tsongas was little known, having made only one hoping for a repeat of 1988 when South Carolina gave Bush the big victory that launched him into a knockout punch in the Southern regional round of primaries and caucuses. However, his continued inability to stop opponents from.