The Sydney Morning Herald from Sydney, New South Wales, Australia • Page 58

raw it. THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 1997 SIDE mm oar WEB LANGUAGE i 7 The notion that you can write once, run anywhere, has arrived, but Java's popularity is still being disputed, writes SUE LOWE. 3 sional programmers use Java and only 1 to 2 per cent are actually writing code," he said. "People expected it to grow much quicker but that didn't happen. A language can't change the world." Phil Myer, Microsoft's manager of application development tools added: "We need to see more stability before people will substantially invest" He didn't doubt that many corporations were using Java, but believed much of it was evaluation and not "mission Microsoft has come in for much criticism for its efforts to optimise Java to run faster with Windows, rather than adopting the "100 per cent pure Java" pushed by companies including Sun, Oracle and Netscape.

As part of the recent investment in Apple, Microsoft persuaded Apple to back Microsoft's implementation of Java. On that issue, Kannegaard was positive, claiming Apple agreed only to make its own Java compatible with Microsoft's. "The Apple and Microsoft deal makes Java more important. It means Java is now the best way to develop applications to run on both Windows and the Mac." Supporting all of these developments, Kannegaard said, there were 450,000 "serious Java programmers" worldwide; 1 million copies of the Java Development Toolkit 1.1 had been downloaded, 1,000 Java applets had been shipped, 150 licences signed and 800 Java books written. He went on to quote Microsoft's vice-president of Internet tools, Brad Silverberg, as saying: "It's probably fair to say that the Mac is no longer the number two platform anymore Java is." Locally, Microsoft doesn't seem so sure.

Microsoft Australia's Java expert, Patrick Dubois, admitted Java was definitely growing but not with "the explosion people had expected Only 1 per cent of Web sites have Java applets," he said. While there may be 450,000 Java programmers worldwide, that compares to 4 million Visual Basic programmers. "Only 7 per cent of profes Jon Kannegaard sports a Java ring embedded with a Java chip. The shape of jobs to come UN Microsystems claims Java, once just "the lan guage used on the Web is becoming so prevalent that soon we might be wearing it. At Sydney's first Java conference last week, Sun Microsystems' vice-president of software development, Jon Kannegaard, was sporting a Java ring embedded with the Java chip he claims is now licensed by 80-90 per cent of smartcard manufactures, including Visa and Mondex.

"The notion that you can write once, run anywhere, is getting more important all the time," said Kannegaard. "With the resurgence in low-end devices, the 'anywhere' is getting very interesting." While these low-end devices, such as WebTVs, smartphones and multiple application smart-cards, now represent only 5 to 6 per cent of Java applications and not one. of them is shipping in volume, Kannegaard predicted that by 2000 Java-based smartcards alone would be shipping by the billion. He said that Java had already become big business in enterprise application development. At least 50 per cent of Java development is happening PROGRAMMING By JENNY SINCLAIR rSlTFALLS and hidden' I whazards worthy of the computer-game designer from hell await the unwary information technology manager as he or she sallies forth into the next century, a leading consultant has warned.

At an Australian Information Industry Association function last week, John Roberts, of the Gartner Group's Asia-Pacific research centre (pictured), gave a wide-ranging view of the shape of the industry in 2001. Up to half of today's technology vendors would be gone or swallowed up in mergers in a few years, and IT would increasingly be a standalone function, either outsourced or working as an internal business unit in corporations, he said. This meant the safest thing to do was to stick with bigger vendors, which had a higher chance of still being around in a few years. The Gartner Group was even able to put a figure on the probability of the Internet creating a third-millennium Utopia; only 0.1. The chances of it creating global anarchy-were 0.3, but the most likely scenario at 0.6 was that there would be some benefits, along with manageable problems.

In the lead-up to 2000, vendors might find it hard to get money from millennium bug-focused IT departments, he said. But those companies that within large corporations, for use on internal networks. Another 20 to 30 per cent is for use outside the organisation, possibly to provide customers with direct access to corporate resources over the Web. In the US, the First Bank of Tennessee is offering Java-based Internet banking. In Australia, Telstra is developing Java-based billing applications that eventually will allow customers to view their account details on the Internet Also FAI last week issued the first Internet car insurance quote and payment system also based on Java.

The next major category of application is business-to-business Internet-based applications, such as electronic commerce and supply chain tracking. Again in the US, transport company CSX has developed a goods tracking service using a Java-based client accessed over the Web. Si; Dl MITH IHT3 A ti Go inside Icon, I.T.'s sister publication for general readers on Saturday, and find out what really takes place when a romance hots up on the Internet. Icon is designed to bring you a snapshot of the latest developments from the world of digital entertainment, communications and education. It carries a Technology Buyer's Guide which answers readers' shopping questions about everything from PCs to fax machines.

The Icon Web site (www.smh. com.auicon) also contains Net TV, step-by-step tutorials and a Virtual Jukebox with free CD-quality songs from some of the best Australian bands. This week, Sydney-based band Frayed Not unleashes its quirky blend of dark, moody folk in an as yet unreleased song called Respect ZIP DRIVE. 3 great uses in one drive. TONS OF STORAGE SPACE.

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Hakes it easy to carry work home or anywhere else you need to. FAST, EASY BACKUP. The Zip drive connects quickly to your PC or Mac (parallel or SCSI port), and is a boon during computer crashes as it makes extra copies of all your stuff. Iomega. en 19 1-1 did keep working on their IT applications would be using products that were neither off the shelf nor custom-built; "assembled applications" made up from applets in an object-oriented environment would be the new solution for business, he said.

Falling costs of computing would be offset by the increasing complexity of systems and the push to offer new services to customers over the network. True network computing would not replace the "fat Roberts said. About 20 per cent of terminals would be NCs without hard disks, probably for simple functions like call centres, while the rest of us would have more of an "obese client" PC, with up to 48Mb of RAM. The capacity of the network to cope and provide reliable service would be chal telecommunications solutions developed here," he said. "But it is extremely important that Australian and Korean businesses work towards mutual understanding.

For Australian multimedia businesses to have an impact there, they must try to understand the Korean market, culture and business ways." Kim said it was necessary for software developers in particular games producers to realise that Korea had extremely strict censorship laws. "The Korean censor cannot allow any violence or sexual material; there is even restriction on colour," he said. "When we tried to introduce Duke Nukem, it was refused by the censor three times. We had to cut violent scenes and we had to change the colour of the blood from red to white. i 6 Up to half of today's technology vendors would be gone or swallowed up in mergers in a few years and IT would increasingly be a stand-alone function.

9 lenged, as use of wide area networks in Australia grew 300 per cent over the next four years. Successful IT managers would be those who could create flexible systems, recruit and keep people with the right skills and somehow keep increasingly diverse computing environments under control, he said. And finally, after all these changes, Roberts predicted that computing after about 2005 might become very boring. As changes and innovations were dependent on the ever-faster microchip, when the regular doubling of capacity reached its logical conclusion, computing might stop developing. He estimated that there were five more doublings to go that's about 32 times the current chip's power.

otoirs "As a matter of fact, we submitted to the Korean Censor Board a copy of Duke Nukem that the Australian Censor Board had allowed." Kim said developers also needed to keep in mind that Korean children were very much oriented towards American English. This was particularly important when designing educational software for Korea. The country also had very difficult and complicated distribution channels, he said. Without an understanding of them, any new players in the Korean market would find it all but impossible to succeed. Asked if he thought Australian industries had any particular skills that would allow them to make an impact in the Korean market, Kim said: "Creativity is the answer, as well as good story-telling and good graphics: those areas are important" Austrade's Seoul-based business development manager, Kenneth Yi, said the Korean market contained "many pitfalls and "Many managers arrive at Austrade thinking that doing business in Korea is similar to doing business in Malaysia and Singapore, and they're the lucky ones, because we can advise differently," he said.

"The unlucky ones are those who go headlong into things and find out the hard way. Many companies do not recover from such mistakes, or if they do, it takes years." psonDOTig KdDowiDU a MARKETING By MARK LAWRENCE ry USTRALIAN Informally tion Technology business managers need to take LLime to understand the particular characteristics of the Korean marketplace before its doors will open. That's the message from Dae-Hee Kim, executive director of LG Soft (pictured), a subsidiary of one of the largest corporations in the world. The $73 billion Korean LG Group employs 130,000 people in 120 countries. Kim was one of three IT industry leaders in Australia as part of Austrade's North-East Asia Multimedia Roadshow, which was intended to stimulate growth in many of the areas highlighted by the recently released Goldsworthy Report Kim said there was no doubt that Australia was capable of creating products that would compete well in the North-East Asian market In Korea alone, he said telecoms, software and IT mar-.

kets were worth more than $42 billion. He quoted as an example that the Melbourne-based Beam Software's hit game, KK'N'D "(Krush Kill Destroy), was the third-highest selling computer game in Korea in July. "Australia has great potential in the area of graphic design, animation and story-telling and you also have a lot of good OVER SEVEN MILLION OUT THERE. Forget about that old floppy drive. Iomega Zip drives are everywhere; at home, in schools, and at the office.

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