The Courier-Journal from Louisville, Kentucky • Page 1

'1 1 TV. 4 Louisville, Sunday, July 30, 1978 202 Pages Copyright 1978, Th Courbr-Journal Carter stresses economic issues 500 in health plan JfeSlK Jkt S3 in over a period of years, starting, perhaps, in 1983. Califano would not put a price tag on the program, saying officials hoped to get as close as possible to no spending increase by reducing costs and trimming fat from the health care system. However, health experts, including an HEW official who asked not to be named, said yesterday that any broad national health insurance program inevitably would make heavy demands on the federal budget. Estimates of the cost of similar programs, designed without efforts to reduce inflationary trends, ranged from $25 billion to $40 billion annually.

Califano also expressed hope that Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, and others who broke with the president Friday over the health plan, would eventually support the program. Kennedy assailed the proposal because he believed that "built-in self-destruct buttons" triggered by adverse economic conditions or other factors could abort the health program. In announcing the outlines of the See HEALTH PAGE 14, coL 4, this section By PHILIP SHABECOFF New York Times News Service WASHINGTON The Carter administration unveiled yesterday the broad outlines of a national health plan that appears to place as much emphasis on curbing inflation and other economic considerations as on assuring health care for all citizens.

In a directive to Joseph Califano, the secretary of health, education and welfare, the president said his goal is "a universal, comprehensive national health plan to contain skyrocketing costs and to provide all Americans with coverage for basic health services and with protection from catastrophic expenses." Califano presented the principles of the plan yesterday for Carter, who was at the presidential retreat at Camp David, Md. The HEW secretary said that Carter had directed him to develop a tentative program by the end of this year. That program would be used to write proposed legislation to be presented to Congress next year. If enacted, the plan would be phased Staff Photo by Paul Schuhmann A raft of rafters on the river spent several hours drifting or paddling from Cox Park to Eva Band-man Park. The Ramblin' Raft Race also included bluegrass music, skydiving and radio-controlled airplanes.

(More pictures, Page 1.) For the second year, Louisville radio station WAKY has persuaded quite a number of people to build rafts and float down the Ohio River for the fun of it. Yesterday's crowd, estimated at 35,000 by the station, Study shows increases Inside today omen are advancing Fire marshal finds new laws arenh solving all the problems in field of crime, too Mailing it over What you need to find your way around Kentucky's largest shopping center, opening this week in southern Louisville: a map. In Marketplace, Page 3. Yanked back Billy Martin, who tearfully resigned last week as manager of the New York Yankees amid turmoil with management, was a happy man again as the Yanks rehired him to manage beginning in 1980. In Sports, Page 1.

attitude in some communities that the fire marshal's office is all bark and no bite. That attitude, they believe, comes from years of lax enforcement of the state's fire and safety laws. Investigations in the wake of the May 1977 fire at the Beverly Hills Supper Club in Southgate, showed that the fire marshal's office frequently failed to conduct inspections and also often failed to follow up on inspections to ensure that problems were corrected. After the investigations, the fire marshal's office received about 30 addition- By RICHARD WHITT Courier-Journal Staff Wrltor FRANKFORT, Ky. Despite strong new laws, the fire marshal's office faces an uphill fight in gaining compliance with fire and safety laws, officials say.

There has been foot dragging and, in some cases, open defiance to ordered improvements in both publicly and privately owned buildings, they say. Fire officials believe that much of the opposition from many of Kentucky's counties stems from tight budgets. But state officials also detect an underlying Figures on female crime from the Kentucky Bureau of Corrections and Jefferson County's Metropolitan Correctional Services Department are spotty, but they indicate that Kentucky generally seems to be following the patterns. Indiana, however, in the words of a corrections official, "traditionally runs three to five years behind the national trends." "Women are still working the traditional women's jobs," said Theresa Wes-terfield, director of Louisville's Female Offender Resource Center, 602 S.Third St. "They won't commit the major portion of economic crimes until they have the chance (to get more not-so-traditional jobs)." The women's liberation movement has been widely linked to the rise in female crime, but Ms.

Westerfieid said it's too early to tell if that's true. The center helps women reorganize their lives when they leave prison or jail. Their offenses, according to Ms. See STUDY Back page, col. 1, this section By ELINOR BRECHER Couritr-Journal Staff Wrltor They're not all Bonnie Parkers, hellbent on robbing banks and killing state troopers, but more women are committing crimes now than ever before.

And corrections authorities say the trend is likely to continue. Rita J. Simon, director of the Program in Law and Society at the University of Illinois, says the trend largely toward economic crime has resulted from the increase in women leaving the home to work. "I don't see any ceiling yet," Ms. Simon said.

"As you have more and more women working outside the home, they are getting jobs that place them in a position to embezzle or steal. With this larger female working force, it is simply a question of the law of averages." She said she also has correlated the growing number of single-parent families headed by women with the rise in female crime. Her study examined the years 1953 to 1975, but Ms. Simon said she believes the trends are continuing. al inspectors and the 197S General Assembly passed laws giving the fire marshal's office added enforcement powers.

"I just think they don't take us seriously," Fire Marshal Bob G. Estep said as he sat in his office last week. "We realize it's hard. But look at the gravy train they've been on all tliese years." The first major test of the fire marshal's clout will come next month. That is when Estep plans to begin ordering "show cause" hearings for about 20 Louisville businesses that have ignored repeated requests that they comply with the state's law requiring that public buildings built since 1974 be accessible to the handicapped.

(At such hearings, the businesses will be asked to demonstrate to the hearing officer why they should not be closed for failing to comply with the requests.) A Jefferson County grand jury last December reported that the law, which has been in effect since June 1974, has largely been ignored. Estep assured the grand jury that he See FIRE Back page, col. 1, this section Soothing the sunny heast Accent Section Classified 16, Sect, Deaths 12, 13 Lively Arts SectionH-" Sports Section TV Section Vol. 247, No. 30 INDIANA Considerable cloudiness today with chance of thunderstorms; partly sunny, pleasant tomorrow.

Highs today, mid- to upper 80s; tomorrow, mid-80s. Lows tonight, mid-60s. High yesterday, 93; low, 65. Year ago yesterday: High, 83; low, 70. Sun: Rises, sets, 8:55.

Moon: Rises, 3:12 a.m.; sets, 5:37 p.m. Weather map and details, Page 14. National Wtathor Sorvic LOUISVILLE area Partly sunny, cooler today and tomorrow with 20 percent chance of rain today. High today, near 85; tomorrow, low 80s. Low tonight, near 65.

KENTUCKY Partly sunny today and tomorrow with chance of scattered showers. Highs today, upper 70s to mid-80s; tomorrow, low to mid-80s. Lows tonight, low to mid-60s. 't win for losing ation The inil can -180 tain mass unemployment long enough to end inflation. Nor is anyone including the authors certain that they should." It's easy to see why.

Resides the oersonal damaee caused Inflation is so much easier for politicians to deal with than unemployment that the business cycle has been replaced with the political cycle as a means of explaining recent American economic history. The business cycle is the term given See INFLATION Back page, col. 1, this section trjj IWl rift. JwX -160 foil1-1 Ij XV Business Editor Philip Moeller has studied economics as a Bagehot Fellow at Columbia University and received awards for business and economic reporting at The Courier-Journal and The Chicago Sun-Times. 1ST OF 12 PARTS Vietnam War -140 Price controls by losing a job, unemployment robs the economy forever of the goods or services that would have been produced had the job not been lost.

Further, welfare and unemployment payments balloon. And the national mood turns hateful. Surveys after the last recession showed that certain crimes did increase as unemployment rose. Among other victims were the Mexicans. The same land that once welcomed the world's tired, huddled masses tried to shut its doors to Mexicans seeking work across the bor -120 The government has decided to fight inflation.

Lord help us. You see, the government way after jawboning and other ineffective tools have been used is to cause a recession. The last'time the government took on inflation, it caused the worst recession in the nation's history. But the cure didn't take. Inflation had become a virus.

It grew tougher, developing immunity after being exposed to medicines too weak to do the job. So much tougher that it now resists cures that, if applied earlier, would have been effective. Although the medicine has been too weak to stop inflation, it has nearly killed the patients. The unemployment rate in 1975 exceeded 9 percent, with each impersonal percentage point representing roughly 1 million real people out of work. Think what would happen if the same medicine was applied to today's inflation of about 7 percent.

That's the underlying rate of price increases, punctuated with frequent upward bursts that have been far larger in some months. The government has thought about it. Want to bring the inflation rate down from 7 percent to 6 percent? A study by Civil War KmT -100 der. There weren't enough jobs to go around. Inflation, in most cases, is far easier to live with.

It wears down its victims bit by bit. It doesn't lead to such easily seen losses as does unemployment. Up to a point, it's hard to prove that fewer goods or services are produced with inflation than without it. Korean War -80 ately sends the economy into a tailspin and jacks up unemployment," Roger Klein and William Wolman wrote a few years ago in "The Beat Inflation Strategy." Their book was published after the horrendous bout of inflation felt by Americans during 1973 and 1974. "Governments will continue to promise an end to inflation for as long as they exist it comes with the territory," Klein and Wolman said.

"But governments will not have the guts to main the President's Council of Economic Advisers says it can be done. The cost: 2 million additions to the bread lines. Would you trade 2 million jobs for a one-point drop in inflation? What about 4 million for a larger drop; 6 million for an even bigger decline? Probably not. If you're a politician, definitely not. "There is only one way to stop inflation: a government policy that deliber Price controls" Full Employment Act -q LLLL 60 IKlArM tA or II World War I Spanish- 40 American War I ti 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i m.mT 1 mumm inil mi in nn i Hint 20 I I I I I I I I 1 I I 1 1 1 I 1 1 j' -T- -J- 77e iQAH '4R 1QKO '85 1890 95 lyuu uo lyiu 10 tu '55 1960 65 1970 '75 1977 Consumer price index 1967 100 1880 1860 '65 1870 '75 Staff Chart by Jrry Ryn and Wei Kendall.