Lebanon Daily News from Lebanon, Pennsylvania • Page 3

Lebanon Daily News, 3 Wednesday, October 1,1975 2015 Will See Last Of Oil By JERRY R.WILSON TULSA, Okla (UPI) -The United States may be totally independent of Arab oil by the year 2015. Unfortunately, so will everyone else because statistically that will be the year the last barrel of oil is pumped from the last well on earth. Of course, there will be no "last barrel" as such in 2015 because the world's oil fields cannot continue to produce at current levels much longer The 1975 International Petroleum Encyclopedia, updated and published annually by the Petroleum Publishing sets proven world reserves the oil known for a fact to be present and recoverable by current technology at about 103 billion metric tons. The current world annual consumption rate is approximately 2.8 billion tons The IPE, which gathers the best available estimates from government and industry sources throughout the world, shows the situation is even worse for domestic wells. U.S.

reserves, including a middle ground estimate of 15 billion barrels in Alaska's Prudhoe Bay, stand at 6.8 billion metric tons, while annual production is 434.4 million metric tons. At that rate, U.S. reserves would be exhausted in about 15 years. While consumption in much of the Western world has slowly declined under higher price levels, consumption in the developing nations and the Communist block has increased at a nearly equivalent level. The United States and Western Europe are not likely to decrease much further, but increases in Africa.

Latin America and Asia can be expected to continue as their level of technology and standard of living rise. Therefore, the answer to this nation's energy problems and those of the rest of the world do not lie in increased production from already depleting reserves. Industry sources say that would only hasten the final day of reckoning. And the solution certainly is not a return to the days of "cheap" oil made shortsighted consumption so easy. Although much of the world still relies heavily on other fuel sources, principally solid fuels (coal and wood) and natural gas, the prospects there also are bleak.

The world supply of coal is massive and relatively untapped, but natural gas reserves, at current consumption rates, will be exhausted in about 50 years. Water-generated power supplies only 1.9 per cent of the world's energy, and nuclear power, hailed as the power source of the future, provides only .4 per cent in the current nuclear age. It is unlikely either will be able to take over the role now played by petroleum in the short time remaining. And time is short because the decreasing productivity of world oil fields could cause a disastrous energy shortage before the end of this century, according to industry sources Worldwide inflation has added additional problems, delaying development of such exotic alternate energy sources as geothermal and solar. With the time lag from theory to prototype to implementation to dependence, some experts say it already may be too late for these methods to be in place and providing significant quantities of energy before the problem becomes acute Development of one possible alternate coal liquefaction is about to begin.

Simply put, coal liquefaction is a process converting one ton of coal into three barrels of high- quality synthetic crude oil Three major research projects in this area are now underway, but it will be at least five years before the process car be proven with a test plant. Although proponents are forecasting several full-scale plants producing up to 100,000 barrels of oil a day. it will be several years before such plants would be operational providing the process is economically feasible. If it is, America's estimated 400 billion tons of coal would provide enough oil to supply the nation's current needs for about 200 years. Orders Canceled OSLO During UV first hall ot Norwegian shipowners canceled orders (or 17 tankers totaling 5.2 million deadweight tons.

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